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St. Mary's Fall Interconference — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W38). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,559 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Charles Lalumiere '17 Dartmouth College 14/14 421* 515 +93 99th → 99th 5.2 2% 3.3 / 6.5 423*
2 Ty Ingram '18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 14/14 405* 507 +102 98th → 99th 6.2 2% 3.6 / 6.9 408*
3 Patrick Snow '17 U. S. Naval Academy 14/14 419* 447 +28 99th → 99th 0.6 18% 4.9 / 6.5 418*
4 Rachel Bryer '17 University of Rhode Island 14/14 421* 422 +1 99th → 99th 0.0 33% 5.6 / 6.5 423*
5 Kai Friesecke '18 George Washington University 14/14 382* 379 -3 97th → 97th 0.0 49% 7.5 / 7.7 383*
6 Allyson Donahue '17 Boston College 14/14 371* 379 +8 96th → 97th 0.0 43% 7.7 / 8.1 371*
7 Nicholas Floyd '19 University of Pennsylvania 14/14 361* 363 +2 95th → 96th 0.0 43% 7.9 / 8.3 361*
8 Patrick Tara '17 St. Mary's College of Maryland 10/14 369* 418 +49 96th → 99th 1.3 19% 6.2 / 8.2 370*
8 Jonathan Lutz '17 St. Mary's College of Maryland 4/14 329* 260 -69 92nd → 81st 1.4 91% 13.2 / 9.4 329*
9 Will Holz '17 Fordham University 14/14 354* 345 -9 95th → 94th 0.1 59% 8.9 / 8.5 355*
10 William Marshall '19 Stanford University 14/14 329* 299 -30 92nd → 88th 0.8 72% 10.6 / 9.4 332*
11 Michael Gemperline '17 Roger Williams University 14/14 323* 299 -24 91st → 88th 0.5 72% 10.7 / 9.6 322*
11 Nicolas Muller '20 College of Charleston 14/14 297n* 290 -7 88th → 86th 0.0 55% 10.7 / 10.2 297*
13 Kyle Comerford '19 SUNY Maritime College 12/14 315* 300 -14 90th → 88th 0.2 62% 10.4 / 9.9 315*
13 Aidan Molesky '20 SUNY Maritime College 2/14 134* 269 +135 53rd → 83rd 1.7 36% 14.0 / 14.4 135*
14 Charles Bocklet '18 University of Wisconsin 14/14 270* 284 +14 83rd → 85th 0.1 59% 11.7 / 11.2 268*
15 Lee Dumaliang '17 Old Dominion University 14/14 307* 272 -35 89th → 83rd 1.0 85% 12.1 / 10.1 307*
16 Andrew Schoene '18 Eckerd College 14/14 301* 242 -59 88th → 78th 2.6 86% 12.4 / 10.3 301*
17 Peter Sander '17 SUNY Stony Brook 14/14 45* 113 +68 32nd → 48th 2.2 71% 16.9 / 16.1 46*
18 William Sunkler '20 Washington College 14/14 52* -83 -136 35th → 7th 4.5 90% 17.4 / 16.0 53*

Division B  18 boats · 14 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Gary Prieto '18 U. S. Naval Academy 14/14 390* 449 +60 98th → 99th 2.1 3% 3.4 / 6.2 392*
2 Robert Floyd '17 Dartmouth College 14/14 407* 433 +26 98th → 99th 0.5 22% 4.4 / 5.7 407*
3 Wade Waddell '19 Boston College 14/14 344* 388 +44 94th → 98th 1.3 14% 5.1 / 7.6 343*
4 Paris Henken '22 College of Charleston 14/14 340* 364 +24 93rd → 96th 0.4 36% 6.8 / 7.8 341*
5 Dakota Northrup '19 University of Rhode Island 14/14 327* 353 +26 92nd → 95th 0.5 34% 7.2 / 8.1 328*
6 A. Tucker Atterbury '16 Roger Williams University 14/14 303* 339 +36 88th → 93rd 1.0 22% 7.4 / 8.9 304*
7 Dreugh Phillips '21 Old Dominion University 14/14 343* 343 +0 94th → 94th 0.0 53% 7.6 / 7.6 341*
8 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Eckerd College 14/14 324* 318 -5 91st → 91st 0.0 45% 7.9 / 8.2 326*
9 Martina Sly '19 Stanford University 14/14 332* 328 -4 93rd → 92nd 0.0 55% 8.1 / 8.0 329*
10 Liam Mccarthy '19 St. Mary's College of Maryland 14/14 331* 326 -5 92nd → 92nd 0.0 58% 8.3 / 8.0 332*
11 Cutter O'Connell '18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 14/14 324* 309 -15 91st → 89th 0.2 60% 8.6 / 8.2 324*
12 Matt Cappetta '19 Fordham University 14/14 294* 260 -34 87th → 81st 1.0 79% 10.8 / 9.2 297*
13 William Gallagher '20 University of Pennsylvania 12/14 244* 240 -3 78th → 77th 0.0 57% 11.2 / 10.8 244*
13 Carolyn Kearney '18 University of Pennsylvania 2/14 89* 249 +160 42nd → 79th 2.2 30% 13.0 / 14.4 219*
14 Wade Wagner '19 George Washington University 13/14 282* 233 -48 85th → 76th 1.9 86% 11.7 / 9.6 280*
14 Rhodes Garner '20 George Washington University 1/14 336* 147 -189 93rd → 56th 3.2 95% 15.0 / 8.0 335*
15 Juan Lejarraga '19 SUNY Maritime College 14/14 196* 158 -38 68th → 59th 1.1 86% 13.9 / 12.1 196*
16 Noah Janssen '19 University of Wisconsin 14/14 174* 168 -6 62nd → 61st 0.0 76% 14.1 / 12.6 172*
17 Andrew Lithen '18 SUNY Stony Brook 8/14 45* 124 +79 32nd → 51st 1.7 41% 15.4 / 15.5 68*
17 Samantha Mislinski '19 SUNY Stony Brook 6/14 -40* -181 -141 16th → 1st 1.8 94% 17.8 / 16.6 -39*
18 Morgan Farber '20 Washington College 14/14 -6n* -37 -31 22nd → 16th 0.3 80% 17.4 / 15.9 -6*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →