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Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2015-W23). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,237 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Division A  18 boats · 18 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Graham Landy '15 Yale University 18/18 486* 486 +1 99th → 99th 0.0 32% 5.8 / 6.7 486*
2 Avery Fanning '16 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 18/18 426* 482 +56 99th → 99th 2.7 8% 6.1 / 8.7 427*
3 Nevin Snow '16 Georgetown University 18/18 486* 449 -37 99th → 99th 1.6 69% 7.4 / 6.7 483*
3 Raul Rios '16 Boston College 18/18 455* 454 -1 99th → 99th 0.0 45% 7.4 / 7.8 452*
5 Mary Hall '15 U. S. Naval Academy 18/18 388* 472 +84 98th → 99th 6.4 9% 7.6 / 10.1 391*
6 Jake Reynolds '16 College of Charleston 18/18 435* 464 +29 99th → 99th 0.9 34% 7.6 / 8.5 441*
7 Alexander Curtiss '16 St. Mary's College of Maryland 18/18 422* 437 +15 99th → 99th 0.2 35% 8.1 / 8.9 424*
8 Esteban Forrer '16 Old Dominion University 18/18 413* 443 +30 99th → 99th 0.9 39% 8.7 / 9.2 417*
9 Charles Lomax '18 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy 18/18 357* 402 +45 96th → 99th 1.7 13% 8.8 / 11.2 361*
9 Kieran Chung '15 Stanford University 18/18 449* 428 -21 99th → 99th 0.5 68% 8.8 / 8.0 447*
11 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Tufts University 18/18 392* 374 -17 99th → 97th 0.3 49% 9.9 / 10.0 390*
11 William Macdonald '15 Roger Williams University 18/18 416* 385 -31 99th → 98th 1.0 68% 9.9 / 9.2 413*
13 Michael Croteau '15 Bowdoin College 18/18 368* 354 -14 97th → 96th 0.2 68% 11.7 / 10.8 366*
14 Nick Valente '16 SUNY Maritime College 18/18 357* 350 -7 96th → 96th 0.0 63% 11.7 / 11.1 353*
15 Lucas Adams '15 Brown University 13/18 385* 359 -25 98th → 96th 0.5 84% 12.4 / 10.3 383*
15 Nathan Allman '16 Brown University 5/18 343* 372 +29 94th → 97th 0.2 37% 10.6 / 11.5 349*
16 Marek Zaleski '16 Harvard University 12/18 380* 371 -9 98th → 97th 0.0 90% 12.9 / 10.4 378*
16 Brian Drumm '15 Harvard University 6/18 379* 304 -75 98th → 89th 1.7 74% 12.2 / 10.5 377*
17 Alecsander Tayler '17 Fordham University 10/18 367* 329 -39 97th → 93rd 0.9 92% 13.9 / 10.9 369*
17 Will Holz '17 Fordham University 8/18 320* 383 +63 92nd → 98th 1.5 32% 11.2 / 12.3 320*
18 George Kutschenreuter '15 University of Wisconsin 18/18 353* 327 -26 96th → 93rd 0.8 93% 14.1 / 11.4 350*

Division B  18 boats · 18 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Ian Barrows '17 Yale University 18/18 457* 511 +53 99th → 99th 2.6 9% 4.6 / 6.7 459*
2 William Bailey '15 Boston College 18/18 405* 404 -1 99th → 99th 0.0 26% 7.3 / 8.5 407*
3 Nikole Barnes '17 U. S. Coast Guard Academy 18/18 386* 397 +10 98th → 99th 0.1 28% 8.1 / 9.2 388*
3 Stewart Draheim '16 Roger Williams University 10/18 353* 452 +99 96th → 99th 4.7 6% 6.9 / 10.4 367*
3 Connor Corgard '16 Roger Williams University 8/18 367* 393 +26 97th → 99th 0.3 45% 9.5 / 9.9 376*
5 Dan Nickerson '15 Tufts University 9/18 346* 357 +11 95th → 96th 0.1 44% 10.2 / 10.6 349*
5 Duncan Swain '15 Tufts University 9/18 370* 443 +73 97th → 99th 2.5 18% 7.6 / 9.8 371*
6 Charles Rees '16 College of Charleston 18/18 413* 398 -15 99th → 99th 0.3 67% 9.0 / 8.2 418*
7 Connor Godfrey '16 Fordham University 18/18 362* 383 +21 96th → 98th 0.4 29% 9.1 / 10.1 360*
8 Pearson Potts '16 Brown University 18/18 403* 395 -8 99th → 99th 0.1 71% 9.6 / 8.7 400*
8 Chase Quinn '17 St. Mary's College of Maryland 12/18 376* 417 +42 98th → 99th 1.1 25% 7.9 / 9.6 375*
8 Jacob La Dow '15 St. Mary's College of Maryland 6/18 354* 316 -37 96th → 91st 0.5 82% 13.0 / 10.4 352*
10 Alex Post '15 Georgetown University 12/18 382* 334 -48 98th → 94th 1.6 71% 10.4 / 9.3 380*
10 Aj Reiter '17 Georgetown University 4/18 397* 403 +7 99th → 99th 0.0 52% 8.8 / 8.8 398*
10 Sean Golden '16 Georgetown University 2/18 413* 403 -11 99th → 99th 0.0 69% 10.0 / 8.3 414*
11 Augie Dale '18 Old Dominion University 16/18 374* 374 -0 97th → 97th 0.0 51% 9.7 / 9.7 375*
11 Daniel Lochner '15 Old Dominion University 2/18 330* 316 -15 93rd → 91st 0.0 73% 14.0 / 11.2 330*
12 Hans Henken '15 Stanford University 14/18 399* 398 -1 99th → 99th 0.0 63% 9.3 / 8.7 399*
12 Antoine Screve '16 Stanford University 4/18 410* 287 -123 99th → 87th 4.0 95% 13.8 / 8.4 407*
13 Andrew Mollerus '16 Harvard University 18/18 400* 364 -37 99th → 97th 1.5 81% 10.4 / 8.7 399*
14 Michael Popp '16 U. S. Naval Academy 15/18 367* 374 +7 97th → 97th 0.0 59% 10.4 / 9.9 367*
14 Connor Trepton '15 University of Wisconsin 14/18 328* 308 -20 93rd → 90th 0.3 62% 11.9 / 11.2 327*
14 Laura Wefer '16 University of Wisconsin 4/18 308* 480 +171 90th → 99th 4.7 3% 5.8 / 11.9 309*
14 Patrick Snow '17 U. S. Naval Academy 3/18 374* 376 +2 97th → 98th 0.0 65% 11.0 / 9.7 379*
16 Andrew Bates '15 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy 12/18 299* 333 +33 89th → 93rd 0.7 38% 11.6 / 12.2 302*
16 Max Neubelt '17 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy 6/18 319* 385 +66 92nd → 98th 1.4 24% 9.5 / 11.6 326*
17 Jack Mcguire '17 Bowdoin College 16/18 367* 348 -19 97th → 95th 0.3 78% 11.3 / 9.8 370*
17 William Hawk '18 Bowdoin College 2/18 324* 174 -150 92nd → 65th 2.3 97% 17.5 / 11.3 329*
18 Zachary Hill '18 SUNY Maritime College 18/18 368* 329 -39 97th → 93rd 1.7 87% 12.2 / 9.8 366*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →