Championship Predictions

← How accurate are the ratings?

Before each of 166 championship regattas, every model predicted each team's total points using only ratings from the week before the event. The site model's predicted totals were off by 20.7 points per team; the closest alternative, Previous site model (before the rating fix), was off by 22.9. Resampling whole regattas, the site model's edge over Previous site model is +1.85 to +2.61 points per team, and its totals were closer in 85% of regattas. Summed over every team, the site model's totals were 34.3 points closer per regatta, while adjacent teams in the final standings were typically 10.0 points apart.

How predicted totals work

A team's predicted total is the sum, over every race its boats sailed, of the points the ratings expect them to score, with penalties left out: adding each boat's penalty risk makes the totals worse, because the typical team takes no penalty at all. The simulated chances further down do include penalties. For each race, a boat's expected points combine two separate predictions. Its penalty score gives the chance it scores fleet size plus one for an OCS, DNF or DNS. Otherwise it finishes among the other boats that finish, in an order drawn from the ratings. Summing a team's expected points over every race and division gives its predicted total, and sorting the totals gives the predicted standings. Actual points are recomputed from the recorded finishes with the same scoring, so penalty boats score fleet size plus one and redress is counted as the boat's average finish.

Where the difference comes from. The site model before the rating fix was off by 22.92 points per team; the refitted ratings improved that to 20.69. Adding each boat's penalty risk to the totals as well worsened that to 20.95. Penalties are rare and lumpy: adding each boat's expected penalty points nudges every team's total up, which is right on average but wrong for the typical team that takes no penalties at all, so predicted totals leave it out. The simulated win chances and finish probabilities below still draw penalties race by race, where a rare, costly event belongs.

Results

A coin flip gives every team the same total, so it is off by 48.5 points per team and is left off the chart. “Site model closer in” counts regattas where the site model's totals were nearer the real ones than that row's.

How likely was each result?

Predicted totals say where teams should finish, but a regatta of a few dozen races still carries a lot of luck. To put a probability on each result, every championship was simulated 2,000 times at its real number of races, using the site model's ratings and penalty risks from the week before: every race, every division, every penalty, and the way results within a regatta move together. That gives each team a chance to win and a chance of finishing where it did or better, and it measures how surprising the final standings were. Each team also gets two percentiles in its regatta's table: how many of the simulated regattas it beat on finishing place, and how many it beat on points. A team at 90 finished ahead of, or scored fewer points than, nine simulations in ten, so high numbers mark a regatta that went better than the ratings expected.

If the probabilities are honest, teams given a win chance of about 30% should win about 30% of the time, and standings further from the prediction than 90% of simulations should turn up at about one championship in ten. They turned up at 7% of these 166 championships, and at the typical championship 74% of simulations were at least as far off as the real result.

Treating every race as an independent draw made the probabilities far too confident: standings that far off turned up at 53% of championships instead of about 10%, and teams given better than even odds averaged a 80% win chance but won 64% of the time. Races in one regatta are not independent (see how results within a regatta are correlated). So each simulated regatta gives every sailor a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of whichever boat the rotation puts them in, with sizes fitted to those correlations and scaled on the 2024–25 championships. Swings are bigger for sailors whose ratings rest on fewer races. A simpler version with only the good or bad regatta did about as well, with a slightly lower winners' log-loss of 1.097, against 1.113 for the full model. Far-off standings turned up at 6% of championships with the simpler version and 7% with the full model. The actual winners' average log-loss went from 1.335 with independent races to 1.113 (lower is better).

Every championship

Teams are listed in their actual finishing order. Predictions are the site model's, from the week before the event, with the finish predicted by Avg finish + penalties and the previous site model alongside.

Fall 2024

MISSA Girls Championship ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 10 teams · site model off 16.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.0 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 7% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Culver Academies Eagles	39	71.9	+32.9	4	7%	96	98	4	3
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	42	41.0	-1.0	1	90%	22	69	2	1
3	Lake Forest High School Scouts	69	70.6	+1.6	3	42%	68	63	3	4
4	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	86	53.2	-32.8	2	94%	10	2	1	2
5	Minnetonka High School Skippers	91	111.5	+20.5	8	11%	92	87	5	8
6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	95	92.8	-2.2	6	62%	47	41	6	6
7	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	96	122.7	+26.7	10	17%	88	94	10	10
8	New Trier HS Trevian	106	81.8	-24.2	5	98%	4	4	7	5
9	Loyola Academy Ramblers	121	119.4	-1.6	9	69%	44	36	9	9
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	129	105.1	-23.9	7	>99%	3	1	8	7

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Gold Fleet ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 13.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.0 · winner's chance 19% · this far off in 41% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Oakstone Academy Tigers	16	38.1	+22.1	3	19%	91	99	5	3
2	New Albany High School Eagles	28	33.8	+5.8	2	46%	65	80	1	2
3	Blake School Bears	35	31.6	-3.4	1	68%	39	48	2	1
3	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	35	40.8	+5.8	4	41%	67	77	8	5
5	Rocky River High School Varsity	43	68.8	+25.8	10	17%	85	90	6	10
6	Dublin Coffman Rocks	50	58.3	+8.3	7	35%	70	73	7	7
7	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	59	71.2	+12.2	12	19%	84	77	12	11
8	Spring Lake High School Red	60	49.1	-10.9	6	77%	27	25	4	6
9	Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots	69	63.3	-5.7	8	59%	48	29	10	8
10	Loyola Academy Ramblers	74	70.9	-3.1	11	50%	56	36	13	13
11	Dublin Jerome Varsity	75	87.1	+12.1	14	28%	76	71	14	14
12	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	80	73.6	-6.4	13	73%	35	25	11	12
13	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	88	67.6	-20.4	9	93%	12	5	9	9
14	Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed	90	43.9	-46.1	5	>99%	0	0	3	4

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Green Division ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 6.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 9.2 · winner's chance 55% · this far off in 90% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	New Albany High School Eagles	8	16.5	+8.5	1	55%	73	99	1	1
2	Grand Haven High School GH Gold	17	21.8	+4.8	2	57%	59	82	2	2
3	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	21	37.5	+16.5	5	16%	89	98	7	5
4	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	32	35.7	+3.7	3	36%	71	70	4	3
5	Loyola Academy Ramblers	42	40.9	-1.1	8	32%	72	48	9	8
6	Birmingham Public Schools Seahawks	43	42.1	-0.9	9	42%	63	49	5	7
7	Rocky River High School Pirates	46	37.3	-8.7	4	64%	40	30	3	4
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	47	38.7	-8.3	6	70%	34	29	6	9
9	Bexley High School Lions	49	40.0	-9.0	7	80%	25	23	11	6
10	Westerville South High School Wildcats	54	63.9	+9.9	13	30%	74	73	13	13
11	Bishop Watterson Eagles	58	55.8	-2.2	11	69%	39	34	12	11
12	Olentangy Berlin HS Bears	62	59.2	-2.8	12	74%	34	35	8	12
13	Vermilion High School Sailors	64	51.5	-12.5	10	95%	9	15	10	10
14	Bath High School Fighting Bees	75	75.1	+0.1	14	>99%	30	39	14	14

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Red Division ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 13 teams · site model off 11.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.8 · winner's chance 47% · this far off in 10% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Blake School Bears	12	18.7	+6.7	1	47%	77	91	1	1
2	Spring Lake High School Red	17	25.8	+8.8	4	35%	74	90	2	3
3	Dublin Coffman Rocks	25	42.9	+17.9	8	6%	95	97	4	8
4	Oakstone Academy Tigers	27	25.7	-1.3	3	68%	40	54	3	2
5	Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots	30	43.7	+13.7	9	22%	83	91	9	9
6	Dublin Jerome Varsity	40	53.9	+13.9	10	14%	89	85	11	10
6	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Cubs	40	24.2	-15.8	2	93%	10	5	5	4
8	Olentangy High School Braves	52	42.8	-9.2	7	64%	43	20	6	7
9	Glenbrook South High School Titans	53	34.0	-19.0	5	95%	8	3	7	5
9	Upper Arlington UA Bears	53	66.9	+13.9	13	13%	89	86	13	13
11	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	55	40.4	-14.6	6	95%	8	15	8	6
12	Westerville North High School Warriors	67	63.2	-3.8	11	77%	35	29	12	12
13	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	75	64.0	-11.0	12	>99%	12	4	10	11

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Silver Fleet ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 13 teams · site model off 11.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 14.6 · winner's chance 44% · this far off in 9% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Glenbrook South High School Titans	14	17.7	+3.7	1	44%	78	81	2	1
2	Vermilion High School Sailors	24	41.3	+17.3	7	17%	86	83	8	7
3	Bexley High School Lions	26	33.8	+7.8	4	23%	82	84	6	4
4	Olentangy High School Braves	29	36.4	+7.4	6	28%	77	82	4	5
5	Upper Arlington UA Bears	32	51.8	+19.8	11	14%	88	91	11	11
6	Westerville North High School Varsity	35	53.7	+18.7	12	20%	84	88	12	12
7	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	36	34.2	-1.8	5	72%	33	50	7	6
8	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	41	26.5	-14.5	2	88%	14	19	3	2
9	Westerville South High School Wildcats	46	32.0	-14.0	3	88%	15	17	1	3
10	Olentangy Berlin HS Varsity	49	49.6	+0.6	10	69%	37	47	5	10
11	Bishop Watterson Eagles	55	47.1	-7.9	9	86%	20	24	10	9
12	Bath High School Fighting Bees	71	67.7	-3.3	13	56%	57	18	13	13
13	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	75	41.3	-33.7	7	>99%	4	1	8	7

W.I.N.B. Regatta ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 32.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.6 · winner's chance 27% · this far off in 80% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Garfield High School Bulldogs	57	85.0	+28.0	1	27%	87	94	1	1
2	Olympia High School Bears 2	58	125.9	+67.9	8	13%	91	99	7	8
3	Orcas High School Vikings	75	92.5	+17.5	2	46%	62	92	8	2
4	Spring Street International School Green	84	139.0	+55.0	11	10%	92	98	12	11
5	Olympia High School Bears 1	90	134.9	+44.9	9	19%	83	96	9	9
6	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	106	113.7	+7.7	4	54%	50	63	5	3
7	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	112	120.7	+8.7	6	52%	52	66	11	7
8	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	120.6	112.5	-8.1	3	68%	35	45	2	5
9	Capital High School Cougars	124	137.0	+13.0	10	48%	56	69	4	10
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	150	123.6	-26.4	7	73%	31	18	6	6
11	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	164	145.8	-18.2	12	59%	45	25	10	12
12	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	169	153.0	-16.0	13	58%	46	29	13	13
13	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	173	153.4	-19.6	15	74%	33	16	15	15
14	Olympia High School Bears 3	202	153.0	-49.0	13	83%	22	4	13	13
15	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	219	115.2	-103.8	5	>99%	1	0	3	4

Women's ACC Round 1A ICSA · 09/28/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 22.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.7 · winner's chance 64% · this far off in 88% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	81	90.5	+9.5	1	64%	68	84	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	104	125.5	+21.5	2	33%	78	90	4	3
3	Yale University Bulldogs	108	142.5	+34.5	6	29%	78	94	6	6
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	130.1	+18.1	3	62%	47	86	2	2
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	120	131.0	+11.0	4	77%	31	79	8	4
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	174	193.2	+19.2	7	20%	85	76	10	8
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	188	225.2	+37.2	11	14%	89	83	12	10
8	College of Charleston Cougars	203	136.3	-66.7	5	97%	5	1	3	5
9	Tufts University Jumbos	210	194.0	-16.0	8	69%	40	30	7	7
10	Jacksonville University Fins	227	216.2	-10.8	9	54%	53	34	9	9
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	233	230.0	-3.0	12	53%	54	41	14	13
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	245	217.9	-27.1	10	72%	32	23	11	11
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	249	241.6	-7.4	13	65%	42	36	13	14
14	Christopher Newport University Captains	264	256.9	-7.1	15	63%	46	35	16	15
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	265	293.8	+28.8	16	34%	74	78	15	16
16	Clemson University Tigers	287	251.2	-35.8	14	96%	9	7	5	12
17	Connecticut College Camels	330	302.4	-27.6	17	94%	27	6	18	17
18	University of Michigan Wolverines	344	365.7	+21.7	18	>99%	45	67	17	18

Women's ACC's Round 1B ICSA · 09/28/2024 · 17 teams · site model off 15.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 30.4 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 86% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	97	99.4	+2.4	1	38%	81	68	2	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	103	141.6	+38.6	6	8%	94	96	9	6
3	Tulane University Green Wave	105	109.3	+4.3	2	60%	49	71	5	2
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	129	117.9	-11.1	3	64%	44	42	4	3
5	Boston College Eagles	131	121.3	-9.7	4	72%	35	44	1	4
5	Brown University Bears	131	126.3	-4.7	5	62%	45	55	3	5
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	139	152.2	+13.2	8	58%	50	73	7	8
8	Northeastern University Huskies	143	144.9	+1.9	7	82%	24	58	10	7
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	178	189.9	+11.9	10	39%	69	67	6	9
10	George Washington University Revolutionaries	205	182.2	-22.8	9	69%	40	18	11	10
11	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	226	286.0	+60.0	17	2%	99	95	12	17
12	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	231	213.7	-17.3	12	57%	49	23	8	12
13	Fordham University Rams	239	235.6	-3.4	14	43%	65	34	15	13
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	239	223.6	-15.4	13	61%	48	20	16	14
15	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	242	241.3	-0.7	15	69%	40	39	14	16
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	250	213.7	-36.3	11	99%	3	4	13	11
17	Boston University Terriers	255	244.0	-11.0	16	>99%	5	25	17	15

MISSA Southeast Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/28/2024 · 11 teams · site model off 13.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.0 · winner's chance 24% · this far off in 94% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	36	54.3	+18.3	2	24%	88	97	3	2
2	New Albany High School Eagles	38	65.2	+27.2	3	25%	85	100	2	3
3	Rocky River High School Varsity	42	43.4	+1.4	1	89%	15	65	1	1
4	Culver Academies Eagles	58	69.4	+11.4	4	62%	47	77	5	4
5	Dublin Coffman Rocks	71	80.8	+9.8	6	43%	65	77	4	5
6	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	84	83.1	-0.9	7	53%	55	51	6	7
7	Bexley High School Lions	96	79.3	-16.7	5	78%	30	16	7	6
8	Olentangy High School Braves	101	104.2	+3.2	9	48%	63	50	9	9
9	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	111	103.7	-7.3	8	66%	44	29	8	8
10	Olentangy Berlin HS Varsity	138	109.9	-28.1	10	74%	36	3	10	10
11	Westerville North High School Varsity	139	119.7	-19.3	11	>99%	20	3	11	11

SW Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/28/2024 · 12 teams · site model off 9.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.9 · winner's chance 78% · this far off in 93% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	29	29.3	+0.3	1	78%	61	70	1	1
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	39	40.1	+1.1	2	73%	53	70	2	2
3	New Trier HS Trevian	51	55.9	+4.9	3	44%	71	77	5	3
4	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	53	65.1	+12.1	6	40%	69	85	3	5
5	Latin School of Chicago Romans	61	64.5	+3.5	5	61%	50	69	6	6
6	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	68	63.0	-5.0	4	85%	25	40	4	4
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	77	78.0	+1.0	7	68%	45	56	7	7
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	96	110.0	+14.0	10	19%	87	76	10	11
8	Loyola Academy Ramblers	96	92.4	-3.6	8	56%	59	36	9	8
10	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	112	115.8	+3.8	12	45%	64	49	11	10
11	Glenbrook North High School Varsity	133	107.1	-25.9	9	86%	24	1	8	9
12	DePaul College Prep Rams	152	114.7	-37.3	11	>99%	15	0	12	12

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A ICSA · 10/05/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 30.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 75.9 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 64% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	195	235.8	+40.8	4	7%	96	95	3	4
2	Boston College Eagles	206	241.5	+35.5	5	17%	88	89	5	5
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	245	215.8	-29.2	3	56%	53	31	6	3
4	College of Charleston Cougars	247	253.3	+6.3	6	35%	71	64	8	6
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	254	256.3	+2.3	7	44%	63	60	9	7
5	Stanford University Cardinal	254	206.3	-47.7	2	87%	17	17	1	1
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	256	298.6	+42.6	8	38%	69	90	11	8
8	Yale University Bulldogs	266	196.9	-69.1	1	99%	1	6	2	2
9	Tufts University Jumbos	292	319.4	+27.4	9	52%	57	79	10	9
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	297	332.3	+35.3	10	60%	48	80	12	10
11	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	310	352.6	+42.6	12	62%	48	83	13	12
12	Jacksonville University Fins	372	352.3	-19.7	11	79%	30	30	4	11
13	Boston University Terriers	406	427.0	+21.0	15	36%	73	61	17	15
14	Fordham University Rams	435	413.2	-21.8	13	75%	36	22	14	13
15	Northeastern University Huskies	448	426.5	-21.5	14	93%	22	20	15	14
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	501	521.0	+20.0	17	40%	76	56	16	17
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	547	503.6	-43.4	16	96%	21	4	7	16
18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	608	585.7	-22.3	18	>99%	43	7	18	18

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 10/05/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 25.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 58.1 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 59% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	132	192.8	+60.8	5	4%	98	99	6	4
2	Harvard University Crimson	134	130.5	-3.5	1	80%	29	62	1	1
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	159	157.5	-1.5	2	64%	45	62	7	2
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	172	189.7	+17.7	4	42%	65	79	3	5
5	Cornell University Big Red	176	220.9	+44.9	9	23%	81	93	5	9
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	176	223.3	+47.3	10	22%	81	93	10	8
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	185	194.5	+9.5	6	73%	32	69	14	6
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	198	181.0	-17.0	3	90%	13	38	2	3
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	207	219.5	+12.5	7	69%	36	69	11	7
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	239	220.7	-18.3	8	80%	26	31	12	10
11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	276	261.7	-14.3	11	53%	54	32	16	11
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	302	325.6	+23.6	17	11%	92	66	15	17
13	Connecticut College Camels	308	318.3	+10.3	16	23%	82	52	13	16
14	Eckerd College Tritons	315	299.4	-15.6	14	59%	49	27	8	14
15	Webb Institute Clippers	316	275.7	-40.3	12	91%	14	8	4	12
16	Florida State University Seminoles	334	312.1	-21.9	15	76%	32	21	17	15
17	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	367	290.6	-76.4	13	98%	5	0	9	13
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	398	378.2	-19.8	18	>99%	35	10	18	18

MISSA Great Lakes Last Chance Qualifier ISSA · 10/05/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 8.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.4 · winner's chance 74% · this far off in 95% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	29	49.2	+20.2	1	74%	63	100	1	1
2	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	70	80.5	+10.5	2	26%	83	79	4	3
3	Loyola Academy Ramblers	81	85.0	+4.0	4	32%	77	67	7	5
4	Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	85	85.5	+0.5	5	53%	54	52	2	6
5	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	96	86.0	-10.0	6	65%	42	30	6	4
6	Bay High School Varsity	98	81.2	-16.8	3	85%	20	18	3	2
7	DePaul College Prep Rams	105	105.6	+0.6	7	64%	46	44	5	7
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	117	116.6	-0.4	8	68%	44	37	8	8
9	Fenwick High School Friars	133	120.5	-12.5	9	>99%	19	9	9	9

Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals ICSA · 10/12/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 33.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.4 · winner's chance 56% · this far off in 56% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	151	181.8	+30.8	1	56%	72	92	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	198	221.4	+23.4	2	40%	71	81	2	2
3	Brown University Bears	239	300.9	+61.9	10	7%	95	93	9	10
3	Cornell University Big Red	239	247.0	+8.0	3	35%	72	65	7	4
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	240	248.4	+8.4	4	59%	47	66	3	3
6	Tulane University Green Wave	253	272.2	+19.2	6	46%	59	71	10	6
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	272	355.9	+83.9	15	7%	95	97	16	15
8	College of Charleston Cougars	293	297.2	+4.2	9	46%	59	54	5	8
9	Boston College Eagles	296	302.8	+6.8	11	50%	54	57	8	11
10	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	299	324.2	+25.2	12	43%	62	69	13	12
11	Harvard University Crimson	317	252.7	-64.3	5	94%	8	8	6	5
12	Dartmouth College Big Green	338	273.3	-64.7	7	92%	10	6	12	7
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	338.5	296.9	-41.6	8	87%	16	16	11	9
14	Roger Williams University Hawks	345	355.1	+10.1	14	59%	47	52	14	14
15	Northeastern University Huskies	382	339.0	-43.0	13	81%	24	13	17	13
16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	384	410.1	+26.1	18	40%	67	62	18	18
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	429	392.5	-36.5	17	76%	34	11	4	16
18	Tufts University Jumbos	433	382.6	-50.4	16	>99%	7	4	15	17

Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/12/2024 · 16 teams · site model off 36.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 50.0 · winner's chance 21% · this far off in 36% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	George Washington University Revolutionaries	144	186.5	+42.5	2	21%	89	96	3	2
2	Jacksonville University Fins	160	185.9	+25.9	1	41%	69	87	2	1
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	162	213.5	+51.5	6	28%	78	97	6	5
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	173	220.9	+47.9	7	33%	72	92	1	8
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	182	189.5	+7.5	3	73%	32	67	5	3
6	Christopher Newport University Captains	219	252.6	+33.6	9	23%	82	86	14	9
7	Boston University Terriers	241	207.6	-33.4	5	77%	28	20	8	6
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	262	205.7	-56.3	4	85%	19	7	9	4
9	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	271	324.4	+53.4	15	10%	91	84	4	14
10	University of Wisconsin Badgers	272	227.2	-44.8	8	87%	16	10	7	7
11	Connecticut College Camels	279	304.6	+25.6	14	30%	75	71	16	15
12	Fordham University Rams	285	278.7	-6.3	11	70%	37	38	10	10
13	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	293	294.0	+1.0	12	68%	39	45	13	13
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	330	294.4	-35.6	13	88%	20	9	11	12
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	337	268.9	-68.1	10	>99%	2	1	12	11
16	University of Michigan Wolverines	456	409.6	-46.4	16	>99%	44	0	15	16

MISSA Keelboat Qualifier ISSA · 10/12/2024 · 13 teams · site model off 7.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 6.2 · winner's chance 1% · this far off in 6% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Wayzata High School Navy	18	34.2	+16.2	6	1%	99	100	6	6
2	Lake Forest High School Scouts	28	15.7	-12.3	1	89%	21	3	3	1
3	New Albany High School Eagles	30	31.7	+1.7	5	20%	86	65	2	4
4	Culver Academies Eagles	32	21.7	-10.3	2	88%	17	7	1	2
4	New Trier HS Trevian	32	35.5	+3.5	7	19%	86	73	10	7
6	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	34	38.9	+4.9	8	32%	74	75	7	9
6	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	34	39.0	+5.0	9	29%	76	78	9	8
8	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	35	43.3	+8.3	10	38%	68	86	8	10
8	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	35	25.5	-9.5	3	97%	5	12	5	3
10	Jones College Prep Eagles	40	30.1	-9.9	4	98%	4	10	4	5
11	Latin School of Chicago Romans	42	54.0	+12.0	13	35%	71	87	12	13
12	Loyola Academy Ramblers	53	49.6	-3.4	12	79%	34	24	13	12
13	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	55	48.7	-6.3	11	>99%	8	11	11	11

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Final ICSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 17.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.3 · winner's chance 30% · this far off in 57% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	92	95.0	+3.0	1	30%	85	63	1	1
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	93	130.7	+37.7	8	8%	95	95	4	8
3	Tulane University Green Wave	99	132.6	+33.6	10	11%	92	93	9	7
4	Harvard University Crimson	104	101.6	-2.4	2	58%	47	52	2	2
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	106	117.2	+11.2	5	43%	61	71	11	5
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	124	142.2	+18.2	12	19%	84	76	14	12
6	Yale University Bulldogs	124	110.5	-13.5	3	61%	43	32	3	3
8	Boston College Eagles	128	119.5	-8.5	6	61%	42	39	7	6
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	133	149.9	+16.9	14	25%	78	75	18	14
10	University of Miami Hurricanes	136	157.1	+21.1	18	24%	79	78	17	17
11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	142	129.4	-12.6	7	69%	34	30	13	9
12	College of Charleston Cougars	144	132.2	-11.8	9	69%	34	32	12	10
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	148	151.8	+3.8	15	51%	52	52	15	15
14	Cornell University Big Red	149	154.2	+5.2	16	59%	46	53	10	16
15	Georgetown University Hoyas	150	137.6	-12.4	11	84%	20	30	6	11
16	Brown University Bears	155	112.9	-42.1	4	98%	2	4	5	4
17	Roger Williams University Hawks	160	146.1	-13.9	13	91%	13	27	8	13
18	Tufts University Jumbos	198	155.4	-42.6	17	>99%	7	2	16	18

Open Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 31.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 53.5 · winner's chance 20% · this far off in 60% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	90	155.5	+65.5	2	20%	90	100	6	3
2	Jacksonville University Fins	138	171.1	+33.1	4	25%	82	93	1	4
3	Northeastern University Huskies	155	229.5	+74.5	8	4%	97	99	14	9
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	156	137.4	-18.6	1	89%	15	40	5	1
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	159	156.2	-2.8	3	83%	22	61	3	2
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	180	202.8	+22.8	6	45%	61	83	10	6
7	Fordham University Rams	215	214.7	-0.3	7	46%	60	55	8	7
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	223	252.6	+29.6	12	21%	82	81	9	12
9	Eckerd College Tritons	233	233.5	+0.5	10	50%	54	52	7	8
10	Florida State University Seminoles	260	240.5	-19.5	11	55%	51	32	13	11
11	Boston University Terriers	262	233.3	-28.7	9	75%	31	19	16	10
12	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	270	193.7	-76.3	5	97%	4	2	2	5
13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	281	291.8	+10.8	15	41%	67	58	12	15
14	Connecticut College Camels	296	253.5	-42.5	13	93%	13	9	11	13
15	Webb Institute Clippers	329	285.7	-43.3	14	89%	22	11	4	14
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	350	372.2	+22.2	16	49%	67	55	18	17
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	357	377.9	+20.9	17	72%	47	59	15	16
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	440	390.2	-49.8	18	>99%	23	0	17	18

2024 Great Lakes Championships ISSA · 10/19/2024 · 20 teams · site model off 26.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.5 · winner's chance 35% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	69	129.1	+60.1	1	35%	82	99	7	2
2	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	104	153.4	+49.4	3	25%	81	97	1	5
3	Black River Public School Varsity	110	137.9	+27.9	2	57%	50	92	2	1
4	Jones College Prep Eagles	136	196.4	+60.4	12	19%	84	93	6	13
5	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	164	176.1	+12.1	7	35%	70	69	8	6
6	West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	176	171.8	-4.2	6	46%	59	52	4	3
7	Rocky River High School Varsity	180	171.7	-8.3	5	55%	48	46	3	4
8	New Trier HS Trevian	191	168.4	-22.6	4	68%	36	29	14	8
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	205	182.3	-22.7	8	59%	45	29	12	10
10	Latin School of Chicago Romans	210	204.7	-5.3	13	43%	61	45	16	14
11	Wayzata High School Navy	212	192.7	-19.3	9	65%	39	30	11	11
12	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	217	234.4	+17.4	15	36%	67	61	17	16
13	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	219	206.9	-12.1	14	67%	38	39	10	12
14	Spring Lake High School Red	230	196.3	-33.7	10	85%	19	16	5	9
15	New Albany High School Eagles	256	196.3	-59.7	11	93%	10	3	9	7
16	Minnetonka High School Skippers	272	305.7	+33.7	19	20%	84	70	15	19
17	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	275	240.6	-34.4	16	85%	22	14	13	15
18	Loyola Academy Ramblers	280	280.0	+0.0	17	74%	38	42	19	17
19	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	320	323.0	+3.0	20	57%	57	35	20	20
20	Lane Tech College Prep Champions	338	292.6	-45.4	18	>99%	9	6	18	18

MASSA Fall Fleet Championship ISSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 37.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 58.3 · winner's chance 34% · this far off in 53% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	87	136.2	+49.2	2	34%	83	100	5	2
2	Severn School Admirals	115	127.5	+12.5	1	77%	38	87	1	1
3	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	119	163.3	+44.3	3	57%	56	98	3	3
4	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	211.6	241.8	+30.2	6	8%	94	87	7	7
5	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	212.3	237.6	+25.3	5	36%	73	75	4	5
6	Southern Regional High School Rams	213.4	171.3	-42.1	4	97%	6	18	2	4
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	230	415.5	+185.5	17	<1%	100	100	16	17
8	Key School Zags	248	243.5	-4.5	7	73%	33	52	6	6
9	Canisius High School Crusaders	279	284.8	+5.8	9	52%	54	57	12	8
10	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	290	281.0	-9.0	8	70%	36	42	14	9
11	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	310	304.8	-5.2	10	59%	48	44	11	10
12	Toms River South Indians	357	322.5	-34.5	12	58%	47	18	10	12
13	Severna Park Falcons	361	309.2	-51.8	11	80%	25	7	17	11
14	Gunston Herons	362	347.9	-14.1	15	61%	45	31	9	13
15	Great Mills High School Hornets	369	344.3	-24.7	13	78%	29	20	13	14
16	West Irondequoit Eagles	388	360.5	-27.5	16	81%	26	19	15	16
17	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	427	418.6	-8.4	18	66%	48	23	18	18
18	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	449	347.8	-101.2	14	>99%	3	1	8	15

SAISA Fall Women's Championship ICSA · 10/25/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 25.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 67.2 · winner's chance 62% · this far off in 93% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	93	136.6	+43.6	1	62%	69	100	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	138	154.2	+16.2	2	80%	43	85	3	2
3	Jacksonville University Fins	231	194.5	-36.5	3	79%	50	17	4	3
4	Clemson University Tigers	234	235.6	+1.6	4	78%	50	59	2	4
5	Rollins College Tars	268	286.7	+18.7	5	66%	58	73	6	5
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	338	318.5	-19.5	6	72%	50	26	7	6
7	Florida State University Seminoles	359	391.9	+32.9	8	31%	80	76	9	8
8	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	386	370.4	-15.6	7	87%	29	26	5	7
9	University of Central Florida Knights	470	423.5	-46.5	9	>99%	28	0	8	9

MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 24.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.0 · winner's chance 46% · this far off in 79% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	59	92.8	+33.8	2	46%	77	100	2	2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	89.4	-22.6	1	92%	28	27	1	1
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	126	136.0	+10.0	3	62%	61	78	6	3
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs	130	171.0	+41.0	5	35%	76	96	9	4
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	149	185.1	+36.1	6	37%	72	94	4	6
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	199	199.0	+0.0	8	40%	67	51	3	7
7	Christopher Newport University Captains	215	221.6	+6.6	9	24%	81	59	13	9
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	218	168.3	-49.7	4	93%	10	5	7	5
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	225	195.7	-29.3	7	86%	19	16	10	8
10	Fordham University Rams	230	230.5	+0.5	10	66%	44	49	11	10
11	Columbia University Lions	237	257.7	+20.7	12	52%	59	72	5	11
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	242	248.5	+6.5	11	85%	26	55	12	12
13	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	292	306.6	+14.6	14	42%	70	56	15	15
14	Princeton University Tigers	303	312.5	+9.5	15	62%	55	52	14	14
15	Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	388	305.3	-82.7	13	>99%	15	0	8	13

NEISA Fall Tournament ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 12 teams · site model off 34.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 52.2 · winner's chance 73% · this far off in 23% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Salve Regina University Seahawks	56	76.4	+20.4	1	73%	63	99	3	1
2	Fairfield University Stags	71	96.2	+25.2	2	75%	52	99	1	2
3	University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen	139	223.4	+84.4	9	3%	98	98	6	8
4	McGill University Redbirds	144	146.5	+2.5	4	52%	58	61	5	4
4	Middlebury College Panthers	144	140.6	-3.4	3	56%	55	57	2	3
6	Olin College of Engineering Phoenix	147	156.0	+9.0	6	79%	30	71	9	6
7	Bentley University Falcons	175	214.5	+39.5	7	36%	72	86	7	10
8	Bates College Bobcats	204	153.7	-50.3	5	98%	4	2	4	5
9	Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	263	240.9	-22.1	11	42%	65	14	12	11
10	Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech	266	262.8	-3.2	12	34%	73	23	8	12
11	Brandeis University Judges	277	223.4	-53.6	8	91%	16	2	10	7
12	University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs	320	225.6	-94.4	10	>99%	4	0	11	9

PCCSC Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 31.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 55.2 · winner's chance 99% · this far off in 82% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	64	88.0	+24.0	1	99%	51	99	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	159	195.2	+36.2	2	67%	66	90	2	2
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	257	299.3	+42.3	6	25%	83	77	6	4
4	University of California at Berkeley Bears	273	275.3	+2.3	3	57%	57	60	4	5
5	University of Southern California Trojans	286	277.2	-8.8	4	76%	34	48	3	3
6	University of Washington Huskies	317	285.9	-31.1	5	94%	17	30	5	6
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	410	431.4	+21.4	8	43%	71	55	7	7
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	418	430.3	+12.3	7	74%	46	54	9	9
9	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	559	453.4	-105.6	9	>99%	22	0	8	8

SAISA Fall Open Champs, Robert L. Armstrong Trophy ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 34.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 75.2 · winner's chance 89% · this far off in 10% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	79	79.7	+0.7	1	89%	56	78	3	1
2	Jacksonville University Fins	122	118.8	-3.2	2	79%	55	68	1	2
3	University of South Florida Bulls	142	183.1	+41.1	4	27%	84	96	8	4
4	Eckerd College Tritons	156	161.4	+5.4	3	78%	32	72	6	3
5	Rollins College Tars	207	258.7	+51.7	8	8%	94	95	11	8
6	The Citadel Bulldogs	215	286.9	+71.9	9	5%	97	98	5	9
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	227	208.0	-19.0	6	87%	21	35	4	7
8	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	246	206.6	-39.4	5	94%	11	19	7	5
9	Clemson University Tigers	270	226.3	-43.7	7	94%	11	15	2	6
10	Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	292	423.6	+131.6	17	3%	98	98	17	17
11	Florida State University Seminoles	296	287.9	-8.1	10	78%	29	45	18	10
12	University of Central Florida Knights	355	362.4	+7.4	13	31%	76	53	14	14
13	Duke University Blue Devils	383	338.7	-44.3	11	68%	38	12	10	11
14	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	395	342.5	-52.5	12	82%	24	5	12	12
15	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	396	371.6	-24.4	15	73%	36	19	13	15
16	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	406	363.8	-42.2	14	92%	14	7	9	13
17	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	422	393.6	-28.4	16	91%	19	13	15	16
18	Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	456	444.4	-11.6	18	>99%	25	21	16	18

Schell Trophy NEISA Open Championship ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 16.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.4 · winner's chance 15% · this far off in 78% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	94	156.4	+62.4	3	15%	93	100	6	3
2	Harvard University Crimson	137	133.0	-4.0	1	68%	44	58	1	1
3	Yale University Bulldogs	159	168.4	+9.4	4	33%	73	74	2	5
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	167	210.6	+43.6	10	11%	91	93	11	10
5	Brown University Bears	178	170.7	-7.3	5	59%	48	49	4	4
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	187	185.1	-1.9	6	51%	55	56	5	6
7	Boston College Eagles	196	151.5	-44.5	2	93%	9	9	3	2
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	198	200.6	+2.6	7	60%	47	57	10	7
9	Tufts University Jumbos	201	210.0	+9.0	9	66%	41	63	7	9
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	209	200.8	-8.2	8	85%	22	44	8	8
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	216	215.8	-0.2	11	90%	19	53	9	11
12	Boston University Terriers	284	292.8	+8.8	13	35%	76	54	17	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	295	303.9	+8.9	14	48%	64	52	12	14
14	Northeastern University Huskies	313	290.5	-22.5	12	84%	26	17	15	12
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	330	313.8	-16.2	15	94%	23	18	16	15
16	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	383	376.7	-6.3	16	65%	63	26	13	16
17	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	409	411.2	+2.2	18	45%	71	33	18	18
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	437	400.2	-36.8	17	>99%	18	1	14	17

War Memorial ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 30.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 86.4 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 73% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	156	205.7	+49.7	3	12%	94	98	7	4
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	159	165.4	+6.4	1	77%	35	79	3	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	182	194.0	+12.0	2	68%	42	79	1	2
4	Fordham University Rams	195	291.7	+96.7	9	6%	96	100	9	10
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	225	214.8	-10.2	4	78%	30	52	4	3
6	Cornell University Big Red	256	285.6	+29.6	7	32%	75	81	6	6
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	263	225.0	-38.0	5	90%	14	26	5	5
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	274	277.8	+3.8	6	69%	38	60	11	8
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	279	292.6	+13.6	10	76%	34	69	10	7
10	Webb Institute Clippers	312	289.2	-22.8	8	93%	15	33	2	9
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	350	412.9	+62.9	13	19%	88	93	16	13
12	Hampton University Pirates	395	377.7	-17.3	11	74%	37	30	8	11
13	Christopher Newport University Captains	419	403.5	-15.5	12	75%	37	30	15	12
14	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	476	470.0	-6.0	15	47%	63	34	18	15
15	Princeton University Tigers	489	441.5	-47.5	14	88%	23	9	14	14
16	Washington College Shoremen	551	520.8	-30.2	16	52%	64	8	17	16
17	Drexel University Dragons	582	552.4	-29.6	18	56%	58	10	12	17
18	University of Virginia Wahoos	594	535.4	-58.6	17	>99%	15	1	13	18

Fall Championships (RR#1) ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 25.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 29.9 · winner's chance 14% · this far off in 98% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Garfield High School Bulldogs	85	137.0	+52.0	4	14%	93	96	2	3
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	102	135.2	+33.2	3	24%	82	91	3	4
3	Gig Harbor High School Tides	109	114.3	+5.3	2	66%	43	74	4	2
4	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	113	109.5	-3.5	1	82%	23	58	1	1
5	Olympia High School Bears	117	156.5	+39.5	6	40%	66	95	5	6
6	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	124	141.0	+17.0	5	70%	35	75	7	5
7	Ballard High School Beavers	152	170.1	+18.1	7	46%	59	76	6	9
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	177.5	177.2	-0.3	9	48%	58	51	8	8
9	Orcas High School Vikings	183	180.4	-2.6	10	58%	48	45	10	10
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	221	174.4	-46.6	8	78%	27	3	9	7
11	Squalicum High School Storm	237	202.6	-34.4	11	57%	49	11	12	11
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	244	203.7	-40.3	12	72%	36	6	13	12
13	Sehome High School Mariners	256	211.6	-44.4	13	78%	30	7	11	13
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	258	273.4	+15.4	15	34%	74	52	15	15
15	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	274	238.0	-36.0	14	>99%	9	2	14	14

Fall Championships Gallium Fleet ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 10 teams · site model off 17.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.1 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 6% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	31	57.1	+26.1	5	4%	98	98	5	5
2	Anacortes High School /Squalicum	37	67.0	+30.0	10	7%	95	97	10	10
3	Peninsula High School Seahawks	40	63.4	+23.4	7	14%	90	95	7	6
4	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	42	39.2	-2.8	2	73%	33	51	2	1
5	Roosevelt High School Gold	63	35.2	-27.8	1	87%	16	4	1	2
6	North Thurston High School Rams	64	62.1	-1.9	6	50%	56	39	8	7
6	Olympia High School Bears	64	42.0	-22.0	3	87%	17	8	3	3
8	Gig Harbor High School Tides	71	64.5	-6.5	8	68%	39	30	6	8
9	Ballard High School Beavers	75	65.7	-9.3	9	85%	24	19	9	9
10	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	82	53.7	-28.3	4	>99%	5	4	4	4

Fall Championships Silver Fleet ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 19.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.9 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 88% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 1	37	81.0	+44.0	7	7%	96	99	7	7
2	Olympia High School Bears	50	67.8	+17.8	2	28%	79	88	3	2
3	Anacortes High School White	54	69.8	+15.8	3	37%	69	87	4	3
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	71	89.7	+18.7	8	26%	78	79	9	8
5	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	74	78.8	+4.8	6	46%	59	64	2	5
6	Capital High School Cougars	75	78.8	+3.8	5	55%	49	62	8	6
7	Roosevelt High School Green	83	64.2	-18.8	1	79%	24	29	1	1
8	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	87	93.1	+6.1	9	55%	49	57	6	9
9	Orcas High School Vikings	99	75.6	-23.4	4	83%	20	18	5	4
10	Gig Harbor High School Tides	102	116.1	+14.1	13	40%	65	67	12	12
11	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	104	113.6	+9.6	12	60%	47	57	13	13
12	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 2	124	98.7	-25.3	10	82%	23	14	10	10
13	Sehome High School Mariners	142	99.8	-42.2	11	94%	10	1	11	11
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	167	133.0	-34.0	14	>99%	20	0	14	14

MASSA Fall Invitational ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 16 teams · site model off 30.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.0 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in 49% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	60	63.8	+3.8	1	60%	70	79	2	1
2	Severn School Admirals	88	73.5	-14.5	2	74%	45	51	1	2
3	Leonardtown High School Raiders	101	142.1	+41.1	6	19%	87	94	3	4
4	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	103	156.3	+53.3	8	18%	87	99	9	7
5	Henderson High School Warriors	121	139.8	+18.8	4	48%	59	79	5	6
6	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	122	154.2	+32.2	7	38%	68	93	7	8
7	Ranney School Panthers	137	141.2	+4.2	5	74%	33	67	8	5
8	Maury High School Commodores	143	113.6	-29.4	3	98%	3	16	4	3
9	St. John the Baptist Cougars	170	225.3	+55.3	13	23%	80	83	13	12
10	Delbarton School Green Wave	200	172.8	-27.2	9	72%	35	17	6	9
11	Walt Whitman High School Vikings	210	226.7	+16.7	15	25%	79	60	16	15
12	Broadneck High School Bruins	213	222.5	+9.5	12	42%	64	52	14	13
13	The Hague School Tritons	227	232.2	+5.2	16	46%	61	43	15	16
14	South River High School Seahawks	252	193.3	-58.7	10	94%	9	0	11	10
15	City Honors School Centaurs	266	226.6	-39.4	14	81%	27	5	12	14
16	Kenmore East High School Kenmore East	281	204.2	-76.8	11	>99%	4	0	10	11

SEISA Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/27/2024 · 5 teams · site model off 10.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.8 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 57% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	15	22.3	+7.3	1	90%	55	100	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	36	41.7	+5.7	2	77%	56	83	2	2
3	University of Texas Longhorns	59	71.3	+12.3	5	34%	79	78	5	5
4	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	78	69.4	-8.6	3	69%	47	18	3	3
5	University of Kansas Jayhawks	90	70.2	-19.8	4	>99%	16	1	4	4

MCSA Open Fall Championship ICSA · 11/02/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 18.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 34.4 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 64% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Northwestern University Wildcats	65	107.0	+42.0	2	7%	97	100	8	5
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	76	70.3	-5.7	1	88%	20	56	1	1
3	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	98	109.2	+11.2	3	42%	67	79	5	2
4	Michigan Technological University Husky One	110	122.0	+12.0	6	38%	70	77	2	4
5	Marquette University Golden Eagles	117	137.3	+20.3	8	35%	70	78	7	6
6	Indiana University Hoosiers	118	111.5	-6.5	4	75%	30	47	3	3
7	University of Wisconsin Badgers	121	118.0	-3.0	5	85%	21	49	12	8
8	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	130	135.9	+5.9	7	79%	29	63	4	7
9	Purdue University Boilermakers	152	171.6	+19.6	10	43%	66	75	9	10
10	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	179	198.5	+19.5	12	19%	87	78	11	12
11	Washington University Bears	209	152.9	-56.1	9	94%	11	1	6	9
12	Ohio State University Buckeyes	222	189.3	-32.7	11	90%	23	2	10	11
13	Grand Valley State University Lakers	247	224.9	-22.1	13	81%	42	8	13	13
14	Western Michigan University Broncos	256	251.5	-4.5	14	>99%	39	22	14	14

2024 Anteater Regatta - GOLD ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 32 teams · site model off 22.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 54.1 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	42	71.5	+29.5	1	60%	70	99	1	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	79	117.2	+38.2	3	23%	85	98	3	3
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	90	95.1	+5.1	2	67%	42	77	4	2
4	Point Loma High School Pointers 3	110	164.6	+54.6	7	20%	84	92	14	9
5	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	120	134.5	+14.5	4	47%	58	75	7	4
6	San Marcos High School Knights 1	128	141.0	+13.0	5	51%	54	75	6	5
7	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	154	187.8	+33.8	11	22%	82	85	8	12
8	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 3	157	181.7	+24.7	10	36%	67	75	2	10
9	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	165.3	198.0	+32.7	13	32%	71	78	22	14
10	Santa Barbara High School Dons	170	166.6	-3.4	8	64%	39	54	17	8
11	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	181	171.6	-9.4	9	62%	41	50	9	7
12	Santa Monica High School Vikings	182	158.8	-23.2	6	81%	22	36	15	6
13	Redwood Giants 1	217	195.4	-21.6	12	61%	43	32	5	11
14	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	240	247.6	+7.6	18	27%	75	55	21	17
15	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 1	242	237.9	-4.1	17	36%	67	45	30	16
15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	242	201.8	-40.2	14	70%	34	15	23	13
17	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	256	260.6	+4.6	21	30%	73	54	20	18
18	Dos Pueblos Chargers	268	259.2	-8.8	20	43%	60	40	13	21
19	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	269	234.3	-34.7	15	68%	35	16	16	15
20	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	273	293.7	+20.7	26	28%	75	60	11	24
21	Alameda High School Hornets	279	282.3	+3.3	23	39%	64	46	18	22
22	Redwood Giants 2	283	276.7	-6.3	22	51%	53	39	19	23
23	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	290	285.2	-4.8	24	49%	54	41	28	26
24	Crossroads Varsity	300	235.0	-65.0	16	83%	19	11	26	19
25	Parker	304	313.2	+9.2	28	40%	65	50	31	28
26	San Marcos High School Knights 2	317	248.1	-68.9	19	86%	15	7	32	20
27	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	319	297.6	-21.4	27	67%	35	25	10	25
28	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	321	314.8	-6.2	29	65%	40	34	27	30
29	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	331	350.5	+19.5	31	45%	59	54	24	31
30	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 2	336	290.7	-45.3	25	91%	11	11	29	27
31	San Pedro High School Pirates	355	324.4	-30.6	30	91%	15	12	12	29
32	SF University High School Red Devils	364	358.4	-5.6	32	>99%	17	32	25	32

2024 Anteater Regatta - SILVER ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 33 teams · site model off 55.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 67.0 · winner's chance 29% · this far off in 17% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	31	107.2	+76.2	2	29%	86	100	3	2
2	Design Tech High School Dragons	99	216.0	+117.0	12	1%	99	100	13	14
3	Stevenson School Pirates	104	106.8	+2.8	1	64%	43	74	1	1
4	Coronado Islanders Islanders	112	248.5	+136.5	18	4%	97	99	18	17
5	South Torrance High School Spartans	123	151.4	+28.4	5	46%	60	90	5	5
6	Parker	141	189.8	+48.8	6	28%	76	90	7	7
7	Bishop's School Knights	154	202.0	+48.0	10	23%	80	91	11	12
8	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	162	200.5	+38.5	9	33%	70	83	12	10
9	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	173	147.9	-25.1	4	72%	30	43	6	4
10	The Urban School Blues	200	219.1	+19.1	13	33%	70	68	17	11
11	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	208	319.2	+111.2	31	1%	99	99	31	31
12	St. John Bosco High School Braves	210	233.2	+23.2	17	32%	71	69	14	16
13	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	212	284.4	+72.4	25	8%	93	94	27	27
14	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	217	253.4	+36.4	19	32%	70	73	16	18
15	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	222	268.6	+46.6	20	28%	73	76	20	19
16	La Jolla High School Vikings	224	221.9	-2.1	14	56%	46	52	33	20
17	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	231	198.4	-32.6	8	75%	26	31	10	8
18	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	236	282.0	+46.0	24	24%	78	85	26	25
19	Laguna Blanca School Varsity	251	137.1	-113.9	3	98%	2	2	2	3
20	Ravens	262	277.1	+15.1	21	45%	56	53	23	21
21	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	277	227.5	-49.5	15	82%	20	11	15	15
22	Miramonte High School Matadors	281	294.6	+13.6	27	35%	67	57	19	26
22	San Domenico High School Panthers	281	202.8	-78.2	11	86%	15	10	8	9
24	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	283	231.6	-51.4	16	84%	17	17	9	13
25	Coastal Academy High School Stingrays	287	325.3	+38.3	32	34%	69	69	29	32
26	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	293	196.1	-96.9	7	94%	6	7	4	6
27	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	313	312.0	-1.0	29	56%	46	39	28	30
28	Monterey High School Toreadores	322	292.1	-29.9	26	70%	32	26	21	24
29	Falcons 1	353	277.1	-75.9	21	80%	22	10	23	21
30	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	383	318.1	-64.9	30	74%	30	4	22	28
31	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	384	335.6	-48.4	33	74%	31	5	30	33
32	Falcons 2	409	277.1	-131.9	21	92%	11	1	23	21
33	Park City High School Miners	420	299.6	-120.4	28	>99%	5	1	32	29

MDISA JV Championship ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 17.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.1 · winner's chance 82% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	14	33.1	+19.1	1	82%	59	100	1	1
2	Hereford High School Bulls	76	84.5	+8.5	3	19%	89	74	9	2
3	Gilman School Greyhounds	77	83.2	+6.2	2	34%	72	68	12	3
4	Walt Whitman High School Vikings	80	100.1	+20.1	6	24%	80	84	5	6
5	Patuxent Panthers	81	94.2	+13.2	5	35%	70	81	3	4
6	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	83	90.8	+7.8	4	50%	53	68	2	5
7	Leonardtown High School Raiders	86	122.9	+36.9	13	23%	79	90	10	11
8	Gunston Herons	93	101.3	+8.3	7	53%	51	66	7	7
9	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	98	120.1	+22.1	11	41%	62	73	14	13
10	Great Mills High School Hornets	101	111.1	+10.1	10	53%	51	67	4	10
11	South River High School Seahawks	118	121.5	+3.5	12	48%	55	53	8	12
12	Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals	132	110.0	-22.0	9	71%	32	20	11	9
13	Key School Zags	136	107.2	-28.8	8	82%	20	10	6	8
14	Washington Latin Lions	142	131.4	-10.6	15	60%	44	29	13	15
15	Indian Creek School Eagles	151	139.2	-11.8	17	63%	42	24	17	17
16	Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty	163	153.7	-9.3	18	58%	48	22	18	18
17	Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	167	127.0	-40.0	14	92%	12	5	15	14
18	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	172	131.6	-40.4	16	>99%	6	6	16	16

Fall Pacific Coast Championship ICSA · 11/16/2024 · 19 teams · site model off 27.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.1 · winner's chance 92% · this far off in 34% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	60	66.7	+6.7	1	92%	54	83	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	122	133.3	+11.3	3	34%	81	75	3	4
3	San Diego State University Varsity Aztecs	130	205.2	+75.2	9	5%	97	99	8	9
4	University of Hawaii Rainbows	140	132.1	-7.9	2	77%	31	52	7	2
5	University of Southern California Trojans	158	175.4	+17.4	6	41%	65	76	6	6
6	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	174	201.6	+27.6	8	30%	75	81	4	8
7	University of Washington Huskies	187	157.0	-30.0	4	87%	17	22	2	3
8	Western Washington University Vikings	189	255.2	+66.2	11	11%	92	97	10	11
9	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	196	171.8	-24.2	5	90%	13	30	5	5
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	197	189.1	-7.9	7	92%	13	45	11	7
11	University of California at Berkeley Bears	236	212.1	-23.9	10	85%	21	28	9	10
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	273	266.1	-6.9	13	51%	57	42	14	13
13	University of California at San Diego Tritons 1	306	288.2	-17.8	14	45%	63	31	12	14
14	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	332	320.2	-11.8	15	35%	72	32	15	15
15	University of California at Davis Aggies	333	258.4	-74.6	12	97%	6	1	13	12
16	Vikes	357	379.1	+22.1	18	32%	75	52	17	18
17	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	362	349.9	-12.1	16	73%	40	23	18	16
18	University of California at San Diego Tritons 2	364	391.4	+27.4	19	53%	60	67	19	19
19	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	402	350.2	-51.8	17	>99%	6	2	16	17

Spring 2025

NWISA Gold Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/15/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 22.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.0 · winner's chance 5% · this far off in 94% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Ballard High School Beavers	48	122.5	+74.5	6	5%	98	100	7	6
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	70	89.6	+19.6	1	47%	64	92	2	2
3	Ingraham High School Rams	98	114.0	+16.0	5	29%	76	78	5	5
4	Gig Harbor High School Tides	104	89.8	-14.2	2	74%	32	38	3	1
5	Lakeside School Lions	110	147.9	+37.9	9	23%	79	83	9	9
6	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	113	107.6	-5.4	4	67%	38	53	6	4
7	Olympia High School Bears	115	128.0	+13.0	7	51%	54	77	4	7
8	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	124	161.5	+37.5	12	23%	80	91	12	11
9	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	129	91.9	-37.1	3	96%	5	14	1	3
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	145	140.3	-4.7	8	68%	38	47	8	8
11	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	167	160.8	-6.2	11	54%	50	40	11	12
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	177	168.1	-8.9	13	55%	51	34	15	13
13	Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR)	185	185.0	+0.0	14	50%	54	42	10	14
13	Spring Street International School Green	185	149.0	-36.0	10	83%	21	12	13	10
15	Sehome High School Mariners	206	203.6	-2.4	16	52%	54	36	14	16
16	Kingston High School Kraken	231	190.9	-40.1	15	81%	27	3	16	15
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	231	207.5	-23.5	17	62%	47	8	17	17
18	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	245	224.1	-20.9	18	>99%	19	9	18	18

NWISA Silver Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/15/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 45.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 57.0 · winner's chance 27% · this far off in 69% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge	68	94.9	+26.9	1	27%	87	96	4	1
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	87	117.9	+30.9	3	30%	77	88	2	2
3	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	98	135.5	+37.5	4	30%	76	92	3	4
4	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	107	176.2	+69.2	6	12%	90	99	8	5
5	Portland Waldorf School (OR) Portland Waldorf (O	114	174.4	+60.4	5	21%	82	95	6	8
6	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	131	179.9	+48.9	8	33%	70	84	5	6
7	Gig Harbor High School Tides	132	213.3	+81.3	17	19%	84	96	19	18
8	Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans	136	95.7	-40.3	2	94%	7	26	1	3
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	176	201.6	+25.6	10	33%	70	72	14	12
10	Hood River Valley High School Eagles 1	182	207.7	+25.7	13	39%	64	67	15	16
11	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	183	212.9	+29.9	16	35%	69	79	16	17
12	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	189	208.6	+19.6	14	50%	54	63	13	13
13	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	211	211.9	+0.9	15	54%	49	46	17	15
14	Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	225	217.9	-7.1	18	58%	45	36	11	14
15	Squalicum High School Storm	247	197.9	-49.1	9	74%	30	15	12	11
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	279	237.1	-41.9	19	59%	46	11	18	19
17	Hood River Valley High School Eagles 2	280	203.7	-76.3	11	81%	22	7	9	9
18	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	294	292.8	-1.2	20	38%	68	28	20	20
19	Wolverines	297	203.7	-93.3	11	94%	9	3	9	9
20	Capital High School Cougars	327	176.3	-150.7	7	>99%	1	0	7	7

MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 03/29/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 16.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.9 · winner's chance 56% · this far off in 82% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	106	104.3	-1.7	1	56%	72	63	1	1
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	110.2	-1.8	2	85%	38	66	2	2
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	151	157.0	+6.0	3	46%	71	69	4	3
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	164	157.6	-6.4	4	74%	41	51	5	4
5	George Washington University Revolutionaries	172	217.5	+45.5	7	21%	85	96	8	7
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	189	193.5	+4.5	5	68%	42	63	7	5
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	212	203.6	-8.4	6	79%	30	41	3	6
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	217	225.4	+8.4	8	74%	37	65	9	8
9	Fordham University Rams	258	287.7	+29.7	11	19%	87	83	10	11
10	Columbia University Lions	271	290.9	+19.9	12	36%	73	71	6	10
11	Christopher Newport University Captains	305	253.5	-51.5	9	93%	12	3	12	9
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	315	286.7	-28.3	10	88%	23	12	11	12
13	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	324	330.9	+6.9	13	75%	46	47	15	13
14	Princeton University Tigers	381	354.0	-27.0	14	94%	37	7	14	14
15	Washington College Shoremen	410	412.3	+2.3	15	>99%	46	35	13	15

SEISA Girls Championship ISSA · 03/29/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 11.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 12.5 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 53% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1	13	36.3	+23.3	3	9%	95	100	3	3
2	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2	21	40.2	+19.2	4	16%	90	98	4	4
3	The Willow School Willow Lions 1	23	23.5	+0.5	1	80%	26	59	1	1
4	Louise S. McGehee Hawksa	36	23.9	-12.1	2	88%	17	22	2	2
5	Ursuline Academy Lions 2	50	49.9	-0.1	6	47%	61	49	7	5
6	Ursuline Academy Lions 4	53	59.7	+6.7	8	40%	67	63	9	8
7	Ursuline Academy Lions 1	57	47.6	-9.4	5	85%	23	23	6	6
8	Ursuline Academy Lions 3	74	66.2	-7.8	9	67%	47	14	8	9
9	The Willow School Willow Lions 2	78	57.8	-20.2	7	>99%	10	2	5	7

SEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/04/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 7.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.0 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 59% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	22	23.6	+1.6	1	>99%	50	85	1	1
2	University of Texas Longhorns	62	73.3	+11.3	3	36%	82	90	3	3
3	Texas A&M University Aggies	83	68.3	-14.7	2	88%	27	7	2	2
4	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	85	86.8	+1.8	4	>99%	33	49	4	4

MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 9.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.7 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 97% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	54	90.3	+36.3	4	9%	96	99	10	6
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	73	60.5	-12.5	1	84%	27	31	1	1
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	79.5	77.8	-1.7	2	69%	42	56	5	3
4	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	81	83.6	+2.6	3	76%	35	67	2	2
5	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	97	101.6	+4.6	5	59%	53	64	3	4
6	Purdue University Boilermakers	103	102.9	-0.1	6	78%	31	50	4	5
7	University of Chicago Maroons	125	128.0	+3.0	7	54%	59	51	7	7
8	Washington University Bears	145	133.5	-11.5	8	69%	45	16	6	8
9	University of Minnesota Gophers	150	146.8	-3.2	9	70%	44	32	9	9
10	Marquette University Golden Eagles	174	155.0	-19.0	10	>99%	25	3	8	10

PCCSC Wahine Championships ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 14.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.4 · winner's chance 99% · this far off in 35% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	23	28.7	+5.7	1	99%	50	97	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine	41	52.0	+11.0	2	87%	56	97	2	2
3	University of Southern California Women of Troy	63	70.5	+7.5	3	68%	61	84	3	3
4	University of California at Berkeley Ursas	79	83.0	+4.0	4	65%	57	69	5	4
5	Western Washington University Viking Women	82	116.5	+34.5	7	23%	84	96	7	7
6	University of Washington Husky Women	112	93.2	-18.8	5	87%	22	10	4	5
7	University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses	128	131.9	+3.9	9	21%	87	51	8	9
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	138	123.0	-15.0	8	80%	37	5	9	8
9	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Fillies	144	111.1	-32.9	6	>99%	4	1	6	6

SEISA Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 11.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.1 · winner's chance 100% · this far off in 80% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	12	14.9	+2.9	1	100%	50	96	1	1
2	University of Texas Longhorns	42	57.6	+15.6	4	30%	85	87	4	4
3	Texas A&M University Aggies	52	52.8	+0.8	2	65%	50	59	2	2
4	Rice University Owls	60	55.1	-4.9	3	75%	37	41	3	3
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	67	74.6	+7.6	6	42%	68	72	6	6
6	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	80	68.7	-11.3	5	85%	28	15	5	5
7	Bears	118	82.4	-35.6	7	>99%	24	0	7	7

2025 MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 15.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.9 · winner's chance 89% · this far off in 49% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	38.7	47.6	+8.9	1	89%	56	93	1	1
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	68	76.8	+8.8	2	56%	67	83	2	2
3	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	72	98.1	+26.1	4	33%	77	97	4	4
4	New Trier HS Trevian	94	89.3	-4.7	3	74%	36	44	5	3
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	109	108.0	-1.0	5	50%	60	50	3	5
6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	110	116.0	+6.0	7	53%	56	62	7	7
7	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	131	163.5	+32.5	10	3%	98	96	10	10
8	Latin School of Chicago Romans	133	110.2	-22.8	6	96%	7	9	6	6
9	Lane Tech College Prep Champions	161	153.4	-7.6	9	71%	47	22	8	9
10	Loyola Academy Ramblers	175	137.2	-37.8	8	>99%	3	0	9	8

Ranking Regatta #3 ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 20.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.2 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 73% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lakeside School Lions	87	76.4	-10.6	2	38%	81	47	3	2
2	Garfield High School Bulldogs	94	75.5	-18.5	1	70%	44	32	1	1
3	Gig Harbor High School Tides	95	127.5	+32.5	6	17%	87	92	4	5
4	Spring Street International School Green	109	157.8	+48.8	10	3%	98	98	11	11
5	Olympia High School Bears	114	103.2	-10.8	3	75%	31	38	2	3
6	Capital High School Cougars	117	126.6	+9.6	5	54%	53	69	9	7
7	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	124	135.3	+11.3	8	52%	53	67	6	8
8	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	129	128.2	-0.8	7	75%	30	49	8	6
9	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	152	115.8	-36.2	4	94%	9	7	5	4
10	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	164	149.7	-14.3	9	69%	37	29	7	9
11	Anacortes High School Seahawks	168	180.9	+12.9	12	42%	64	63	12	12
12	Kingston High School Kraken	169	188.9	+19.9	13	47%	60	71	14	14
13	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	181	202.4	+21.4	15	43%	67	76	15	15
14	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	202	161.4	-40.6	11	94%	10	7	10	10
15	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	226	200.4	-25.6	14	>99%	15	7	13	13

SEISA Fleet Race Champs / Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 7.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.2 · winner's chance 85% · this far off in 45% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Clear Lake High School Falcons Green	18	25.8	+7.8	1	85%	57	99	1	1
2	Lake Travis High School Cavaliers	42	44.3	+2.3	3	44%	73	55	3	3
3	Flour Bluff High School Hornets	44	46.8	+2.8	4	56%	61	65	2	4
4	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	59	43.0	-16.0	2	>99%	10	0	4	2

MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/12/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 21.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.0 · winner's chance 93% · this far off in 54% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	62	66.6	+4.6	1	93%	53	84	2	1
2	Northwestern University Wildcats	84	100.4	+16.4	2	76%	59	92	3	2
3	University of Michigan Wolverines	118	140.4	+22.4	4	34%	81	91	4	4
4	Purdue University Boilermakers	168	124.6	-43.4	3	>99%	15	0	1	3

SAISA Women's Fleet Race Champs - Ann Boyd Trophy ICSA · 04/12/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 14.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.2 · winner's chance 13% · this far off in 83% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of South Florida Bulls	46	70.1	+24.1	2	13%	93	100	3	2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	57	50.7	-6.3	1	97%	11	48	1	1
3	Jacksonville University Fins	62	76.6	+14.6	3	89%	36	93	4	3
4	Rollins College Tars	92	119.3	+27.3	5	26%	86	97	5	5
5	Clemson University Tigers	117	107.2	-9.8	4	79%	34	34	2	4
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	128	120.9	-7.1	6	79%	37	39	6	6
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	164	140.6	-23.4	7	77%	43	11	9	7
8	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	172	168.2	-3.8	8	62%	60	38	8	8
9	University of Florida Gators	178	191.5	+13.5	10	54%	59	60	7	9
10	Florida State University Seminoles	203	187.6	-15.4	9	93%	26	10	10	10
11	University of Central Florida Knights	238	219.3	-18.7	11	>99%	38	0	11	11

MISSA Mallory NWPrequalifier ISSA · 04/12/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 4.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.4 · winner's chance 88% · this far off in 81% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	28	28.6	+0.6	1	88%	56	76	1	1
2	Wayzata High School Navy	42	44.5	+2.5	2	75%	57	73	2	2
3	Minnetonka High School Skippers	58	53.5	-4.5	3	78%	49	40	5	3
4	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	71	74.1	+3.1	5	43%	73	57	4	5
4	St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	71	71.9	+0.9	4	48%	69	51	3	4
6	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	86	90.4	+4.4	7	49%	64	52	7	7
7	Benilde St Margarets Red	97	84.9	-12.1	6	>99%	16	6	6	6

Mallory South East Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/12/2025 · 2 teams · site model off 1.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 1.7 · winner's chance 92% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Varsity	9	10.3	+1.3	1	92%	54	81	1	1
2	Culver Academies Eagles	15	13.7	-1.3	2	>99%	37	19	2	2

America Trophy ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 21.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 54.4 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 96% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	94	123.4	+29.4	2	32%	84	96	2	2
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	111	121.1	+10.1	1	60%	52	80	3	1
3	Cornell University Big Red	115	147.2	+32.2	4	37%	71	95	5	4
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	118	133.4	+15.4	3	73%	36	85	8	3
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	140	158.1	+18.1	6	57%	51	83	4	6
6	Fordham University Rams	170	189.4	+19.4	7	35%	73	79	9	7
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	183	155.8	-27.2	5	88%	18	24	7	5
8	Webb Institute Clippers	224	209.4	-14.6	9	48%	61	34	1	9
9	George Washington University Revolutionaries	231	232.6	+1.6	10	39%	69	50	14	10
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	234	208.5	-25.5	8	84%	23	19	12	8
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	237	277.2	+40.2	13	23%	82	88	16	14
12	Penn State University Nittany Lions	275	278.8	+3.8	14	40%	68	47	6	12
13	Christopher Newport University Captains	281	253.8	-27.2	11	81%	26	16	15	11
13	Hampton University Pirates	281	253.8	-27.2	12	83%	25	16	10	13
15	Columbia University Lions	292	317.7	+25.7	15	53%	60	74	13	15
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	349	325.4	-23.6	16	74%	41	11	18	17
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	378	344.7	-33.3	17	81%	37	5	11	16
18	Washington College Shoremen	391	373.8	-17.2	18	>99%	34	8	17	18

NEISA Open FR Champs/Coast Guard Alumni Bowl ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 19.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 46.9 · winner's chance 56% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	103	117.4	+14.4	1	56%	72	85	1	1
2	Boston College Eagles	118	160.2	+42.2	4	18%	88	98	5	4
3	Brown University Bears	133	152.1	+19.1	3	43%	65	85	2	3
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	138	148.7	+10.7	2	62%	44	74	6	2
5	Yale University Bulldogs	156	187.7	+31.7	8	27%	77	88	4	8
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	162	167.3	+5.3	5	65%	41	63	7	5
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	169	193.9	+24.9	9	39%	67	82	10	9
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	184	178.5	-5.5	7	71%	35	47	8	6
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	197	167.8	-29.2	6	89%	16	19	13	7
10	Tufts University Jumbos	198	202.1	+4.1	10	71%	37	58	9	10
11	Dartmouth College Big Green	237.2	210.7	-26.5	11	79%	30	19	3	11
12	Northeastern University Huskies	258	251.7	-6.3	12	55%	57	35	16	12
13	Connecticut College Camels	262	265.2	+3.2	13	60%	52	46	12	13
14	Boston University Terriers	304	292.4	-11.6	15	46%	65	23	11	15
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	320	280.3	-39.7	14	87%	24	3	15	14
16	Salve Regina University Seahawks	339	309.4	-29.6	16	91%	30	5	14	16
17	Fairfield University Stags	378	352.6	-25.4	17	>99%	42	3	17	17

NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 11.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.7 · winner's chance 45% · this far off in 23% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	13	26.0	+13.0	1	45%	77	97	1	1
2	Brown University Bears	28	37.0	+9.0	3	28%	79	83	3	3
3	Harvard University Crimson	35	33.6	-1.4	2	53%	55	49	2	2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	36	44.5	+8.5	6	30%	75	80	6	6
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	42	41.9	-0.1	5	49%	57	54	7	7
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	47	60.4	+13.4	12	14%	88	84	11	11
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	47	55.1	+8.1	9	23%	80	75	5	9
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	48	71.6	+23.6	14	8%	94	96	14	14
9	Tufts University Jumbos	50	58.2	+8.2	10	42%	63	72	9	10
10	Boston College Eagles	54	38.2	-15.8	4	94%	8	11	4	4
11	Boston University Terriers	57	61.3	+4.3	13	52%	54	62	13	13
12	Northeastern University Huskies	68	44.7	-23.3	7	94%	8	4	10	5
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	70	47.2	-22.8	8	96%	6	3	8	8
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	75	59.9	-15.1	11	87%	18	10	12	12
15	Connecticut College Camels	81	72.1	-8.9	15	73%	35	19	17	15
16	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	82	72.7	-9.3	16	92%	18	19	15	16
17	McGill University Redbirds	85	93.9	+8.9	17	>99%	37	73	16	17

PCCSC Mark Healy Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 15.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.4 · winner's chance 54% · this far off in 88% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	60	58.8	-1.2	1	54%	73	62	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	63	77.9	+14.9	3	34%	77	90	8	4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	68	80.4	+12.4	4	50%	61	85	7	3
4	University of Southern California Trojans	85.6	92.4	+6.8	5	45%	65	71	6	5
5	San Diego State University Aztecs	93	73.7	-19.3	2	90%	15	20	2	2
6	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	103	108.7	+5.7	7	51%	59	64	5	8
7	Western Washington University Vikings	105	117.7	+12.7	8	51%	59	77	3	6
8	University of California at Berkeley Bears	119	143.3	+24.3	9	27%	80	87	11	10
9	University of Washington Huskies	129	108.2	-20.8	6	95%	10	19	4	7
10	University of California at San Diego Tritons	133	168.8	+35.8	11	32%	75	90	10	11
11	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	163	149.4	-13.6	10	83%	27	22	9	9
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	171	171.8	+0.8	12	63%	49	49	13	12
13	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	202	183.8	-18.2	13	63%	47	13	12	13
14	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	212	192.6	-19.4	14	71%	43	7	15	14
15	Santa Clara University Broncos	220	235.9	+15.9	16	18%	87	66	16	16
16	University of Oregon Ducks	227	196.5	-30.5	15	>99%	3	1	14	15

SAISA Spring Open Championship - Tillman Trophy ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 26.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 57.0 · winner's chance 79% · this far off in 49% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	43	70.2	+27.2	1	79%	61	100	2	1
2	University of Miami Hurricanes	73	93.0	+20.0	2	68%	57	95	6	2
3	University of South Florida Bulls	120	128.5	+8.5	4	29%	81	77	4	4
4	Jacksonville University Fins	125	118.2	-6.8	3	72%	40	51	1	3
5	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	133	142.7	+9.7	6	52%	58	74	7	6
6	Florida State University Seminoles	138	154.4	+16.4	7	56%	56	83	9	7
7	Eckerd College Tritons	139	139.2	+0.2	5	92%	15	62	5	5
8	Rollins College Tars	198	208.1	+10.1	9	38%	75	69	11	9
9	The Citadel Bulldogs	207	240.5	+33.5	10	23%	85	91	10	10
10	Clemson University Tigers	230	198.2	-31.8	8	94%	12	14	3	8
11	Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	267	353.4	+86.4	17	4%	97	94	13	17
12	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	273	296.7	+23.7	14	23%	83	77	15	14
13	Auburn University Tigers	294	264.6	-29.4	11	79%	27	14	8	11
13	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	294	279.5	-14.5	12	65%	42	27	12	12
15	University of Central Florida Knights	296	288.0	-8.0	13	87%	20	32	17	13
16	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	358	321.4	-36.6	16	70%	44	3	16	16
17	Duke University Blue Devils	365	301.5	-63.5	15	96%	9	1	14	15
18	University of South Carolina Gamecocks	417	363.2	-53.8	18	>99%	27	0	18	18

2025 PCISA Silver PCC's ISSA · 04/26/2025 · 29 teams · site model off 33.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 50.4 · winner's chance 25% · this far off in 98% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	97	102.7	+5.7	2	25%	88	78	8	4
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	114	82.9	-31.1	1	79%	35	32	3	1
3	Carlmont The Scots	134	148.9	+14.9	5	29%	77	75	2	3
4	Redwood Giants	138	188.2	+50.2	6	16%	87	92	4	6
5	Stevenson School Pirates 1	139	139.7	+0.7	3	63%	43	65	1	2
6	Coronado Islanders Islanders	152	203.7	+51.7	9	20%	83	93	7	8
7	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	181	143.6	-37.4	4	71%	32	33	5	5
7	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	181	213.7	+32.7	10	26%	77	80	24	11
9	La Jolla High School Vikings	182	203.1	+21.1	8	44%	59	71	26	12
10	Alameda High School Hornets	199	216.0	+17.0	11	43%	61	69	11	9
11	Encinal High School Jets	216	257.4	+41.4	14	21%	81	81	23	19
12	Bishop's School Knights	227	191.6	-35.4	7	73%	31	27	10	7
13	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	233	238.4	+5.4	13	43%	60	58	15	14
14	Varsity	236	301.8	+65.8	22	26%	76	76	17	21
15	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	243	216.6	-26.4	12	70%	33	32	9	10
16	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	245	272.6	+27.6	20	33%	70	74	28	24
17	The Urban School Blues	261	265.0	+4.0	18	48%	55	50	12	13
18	Saint Mary's (Berkeley, CA) Varsity	267	260.4	-6.6	16	55%	47	44	14	15
19	Carmel High School Padres	272	270.3	-1.7	19	56%	46	44	13	18
20	Stevenson School Pirates 2	272.6	315.8	+43.2	27	30%	72	74	22	27
21	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	274	259.8	-14.2	15	69%	34	40	6	17
22	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	283	345.4	+62.4	29	25%	77	81	29	29
23	Pacific Palisades Ch	293	301.8	+8.8	22	59%	43	45	17	21
24	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	300	310.5	+10.5	26	59%	45	51	27	28
25	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	321	263.6	-57.4	17	90%	12	10	20	16
26	Design Tech High School Dragons	333	307.0	-26.0	25	80%	23	19	25	25
26	San Domenico High School Panthers	333	289.0	-44.0	21	86%	17	13	16	20
28	Campolindo High School Cougars	412	319.9	-92.1	28	90%	15	1	21	26
29	Albany High School (CA) Varsity	423	301.8	-121.2	22	>99%	6	1	17	21

NYISAS-NW All Girls Qualifier ISSA · 04/26/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 4.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 4.0 · winner's chance 47% · this far off in 51% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	West Irondequoit Eagles 1	3	6.2	+3.2	1	47%	76	97	1	1
2	Southwestern Central High School Trojans	6	13.1	+7.1	4	20%	86	95	2	5
3	West Irondequoit Eagles 2	9	13.8	+4.8	5	34%	72	79	3	3
4	Nardin Academy Gators	13	9.8	-3.2	2	74%	33	27	5	2
5	Kenmore East High School Kenmore East	15	12.7	-2.3	3	74%	35	29	6	6
6	West Irondequoit Eagles 3	18	13.8	-4.2	5	80%	27	19	3	3
7	City Honors School Centaurs	20	14.7	-5.3	7	>99%	10	6	7	7

2025 PCISA Gold PCC's ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 21 teams · site model off 17.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 37.0 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in 75% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	30	41.3	+11.3	1	60%	70	94	2	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	55	48.0	-7.0	2	76%	45	48	1	2
3	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	66	86.8	+20.8	4	23%	85	90	4	4
4	Santa Barbara High School Dons	68	88.0	+20.0	5	37%	71	89	7	5
5	Santa Monica High School Vikings	70	109.9	+39.9	8	25%	80	97	13	8
6	San Marcos High School Royals	80	76.9	-3.1	3	83%	22	54	3	3
7	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	86	103.8	+17.8	7	56%	51	83	14	7
8	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	105	100.2	-4.8	6	68%	37	49	8	6
9	Crossroads Varsity	131	145.0	+14.0	12	24%	80	69	21	13
10	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	134	157.9	+23.9	14	16%	87	82	9	15
11	Parker	144	171.1	+27.1	18	11%	91	83	18	18
12	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	151	123.4	-27.6	10	81%	22	12	20	10
13	Dos Pueblos Chargers	153	117.9	-35.1	9	88%	15	10	6	9
14	Redwood Giants	158	154.4	-3.6	13	57%	48	40	15	12
15	Alameda High School Hornets	164	169.8	+5.8	17	41%	64	55	16	16
15	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	164	142.8	-21.2	11	81%	23	16	17	11
17	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	182	166.6	-15.4	16	67%	38	20	11	17
18	San Pedro High School Pirates	192	189.0	-3.0	20	42%	63	36	10	20
19	San Domenico High School Panthers	195	165.2	-29.8	15	91%	13	4	5	14
20	South Torrance High School Spartans	201	176.1	-24.9	19	90%	17	8	12	19
21	Design Tech High School Dragons	203	196.2	-6.8	21	>99%	17	27	19	21

MASSA 2025 Girls Championship ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 22.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.6 · winner's chance 23% · this far off in 98% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Pingry School Big Blue	57	81.2	+24.2	2	23%	88	94	2	2
2	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	60	71.8	+11.8	1	62%	52	87	3	1
3	The Stony Brook School Bears	81	93.2	+12.2	4	47%	63	81	4	4
4	Severn School Admirals	85	86.1	+1.1	3	65%	41	60	1	3
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	91	142.6	+51.6	7	30%	75	90	15	7
6	Ranney School Panthers	114	163.8	+49.8	10	14%	89	97	8	9
7	Toms River South Indians	119	121.1	+2.1	5	73%	33	57	7	5
8	Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	142	159.5	+17.5	9	39%	67	72	5	8
9	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	143	127.8	-15.2	6	78%	26	37	9	10
10	Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	171	158.3	-12.7	8	62%	44	32	6	6
11	St. John the Baptist Cougars	175	170.5	-4.5	11	60%	45	39	17	12
12	Chatham High School Cougars	183	197.6	+14.6	14	38%	67	61	14	14
13	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	190	179.0	-11.0	12	73%	33	29	11	11
14	Ridge High School Red Devils	203	202.4	-0.6	15	57%	50	41	12	15
15	Nardin Academy Gators	227	190.5	-36.5	13	77%	28	14	16	13
16	Southwestern Central High School Trojans	257	211.0	-46.0	16	78%	31	6	10	16
17	The Tome School Titans	291	227.8	-63.2	17	>99%	18	0	13	17

MISSA Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 31.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 47.6 · winner's chance 15% · this far off in 82% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	73	101.1	+28.1	2	15%	93	94	1	2
2	Lake Forest High School Scouts	81	68.8	-12.2	1	91%	19	47	2	1
3	Wayzata High School Navy	111.2	166.1	+54.9	8	4%	97	99	7	9
4	Jones College Prep Eagles	123	104.1	-18.9	3	81%	26	35	4	3
5	Rocky River High School Varsity	124	143.3	+19.3	5	44%	62	81	3	4
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	126	142.4	+16.4	4	60%	46	78	5	5
7	New Trier HS Trevian	127	147.7	+20.7	6	62%	44	83	10	6
8	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	129	177.1	+48.1	10	38%	66	97	9	11
9	Minnetonka High School Skippers	130	179.0	+49.0	11	46%	58	93	15	12
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	139	162.5	+23.5	7	76%	29	83	8	8
11	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Varsity	194	175.7	-18.3	9	70%	34	31	12	10
12	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	229	257.4	+28.4	18	11%	91	73	19	19
13	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	239	255.7	+16.7	16	15%	87	60	14	18
14	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	249	183.2	-65.8	12	91%	12	1	6	7
14	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	249	210.8	-38.2	13	73%	34	6	17	13
16	St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	252	242.3	-9.7	15	61%	46	28	11	14
17	Culver Academies Eagles	273	237.1	-35.9	14	74%	31	12	16	15
18	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	275	268.6	-6.4	20	55%	52	30	18	20
19	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Marian Varsity	289	257.3	-31.7	17	87%	21	6	20	17
20	Troy High School Varsity	341	259.8	-81.2	19	>99%	8	0	13	16

SAISA Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 28.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 66.3 · winner's chance 31% · this far off in 44% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Antilles School Hurricanes	99	128.3	+29.3	1	31%	85	95	3	3
2	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	125	129.8	+4.8	2	58%	55	74	2	2
3	MAST Academy Makos	159	179.9	+20.9	5	20%	85	80	7	5
4	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	162	131.2	-30.8	3	87%	19	24	1	1
5	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	167	188.3	+21.3	6	38%	70	83	4	6
6	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	173	239.4	+66.4	9	18%	85	94	12	10
6	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	173	168.2	-4.8	4	80%	27	54	5	4
8	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	209	266.7	+57.7	11	21%	83	90	13	12
9	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	210.2	204.7	-5.5	7	80%	26	49	9	7
10	Pine Crest School Panthers	217	244.0	+27.0	10	72%	39	80	10	11
11	Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	240	208.6	-31.4	8	95%	8	22	8	8
12	John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	333	285.2	-47.8	12	73%	38	8	6	9
13	James Island Charter High School Varsity	364	366.9	+2.9	16	16%	89	34	15	16
14	Wando High School Warriors	366	334.9	-31.1	13	73%	41	6	16	14
15	New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	383	364.9	-18.1	15	64%	51	11	14	15
16	Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	390	335.0	-55.0	14	>99%	6	0	11	13

MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 22.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 32.3 · winner's chance 45% · this far off in 83% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	62	81.5	+19.5	1	45%	77	95	3	1
2	Severn School Admirals	79	88.5	+9.5	2	63%	53	84	2	2
3	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	99	95.0	-4.0	3	80%	34	59	1	3
4	Southern Regional High School Rams	113	123.2	+10.2	4	64%	54	78	4	4
5	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	138	155.7	+17.7	6	37%	72	78	5	6
6	Severna Park Falcons	157	206.6	+49.6	11	8%	94	95	14	11
7	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	166	152.2	-13.8	5	77%	29	36	7	5
8	The Stony Brook School Bears	178	188.9	+10.9	7	47%	59	62	8	9
9	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	181	192.6	+11.6	9	53%	54	67	6	7
10	Rye High School Garnets	183	223.5	+40.5	14	35%	69	81	13	14
11	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	218	203.1	-14.9	10	64%	41	28	10	10
12	Key School Zags	222	191.8	-30.2	8	85%	19	14	9	8
13	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	227	253.9	+26.9	17	22%	82	80	15	17
14	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	246.8	251.4	+4.6	16	43%	62	46	17	16
15	Great Mills High School Hornets	250	219.1	-30.9	12	88%	17	10	12	13
16	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	260	220.3	-39.7	13	92%	12	8	11	12
17	Ranney School Panthers	294	250.4	-43.6	15	91%	18	2	18	15
18	Canisius High School Crusaders	310	287.1	-22.9	18	>99%	26	8	16	18

MASSA Spring Invitational ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 15.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.6 · winner's chance 61% · this far off in 39% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	48	73.6	+25.6	1	61%	70	98	2	1
2	Kent Island High School Buccaneers	113	117.4	+4.4	5	13%	91	61	11	5
3	Leonardtown High School Raiders	114	114.5	+0.5	4	28%	79	56	3	4
4	Ridge High School Red Devils	121	149.7	+28.7	10	4%	97	92	10	10
5	Gunston Herons	123	102.3	-20.7	2	77%	28	17	1	2
6	Maury High School Commodores	130	103.3	-26.7	3	84%	20	11	6	3
6	Henderson High School Warriors	130	123.1	-6.9	7	56%	51	37	5	6
6	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	130	137.8	+7.8	8	37%	68	58	7	9
9	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	134	118.6	-15.4	6	82%	21	31	8	8
10	Chatham High School Cougars	143	154.0	+11.0	11	59%	49	62	9	11
11	Broadneck High School Bruins	150	163.1	+13.1	12	66%	44	62	12	12
12	Seton Hall Preparatory School Pirates	167	142.7	-24.3	9	>99%	4	5	4	7

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Bristol ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 13.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.3 · winner's chance 21% · this far off in 76% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	19	41.5	+22.5	2	21%	90	100	2	2
2	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	36	45.5	+9.5	3	34%	77	92	5	3
3	St. George's School Dragons	45	30.4	-14.6	1	91%	15	22	1	1
4	North Kingstown High School Skippers	59	47.1	-11.9	4	78%	34	32	3	4
5	Staples High School Wreckers	60	68.2	+8.2	5	60%	54	72	4	5
6	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	75	92.0	+17.0	6	27%	81	86	10	10
7	Bishop Stang High Spartans	102	94.4	-7.6	7	39%	68	31	6	6
7	Branford High School Hornets	102	100.2	-1.8	9	37%	69	39	8	8
7	Wilton High School Warriors	102	98.8	-3.2	8	35%	73	32	7	7
10	Rogers High School Vikings	105	108.2	+3.2	11	65%	46	45	12	11
11	Weston High School Trojans	107	109.7	+2.7	12	76%	34	46	11	12
12	The Prout School Crusaders	156	100.2	-55.8	9	>99%	8	0	8	8

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 12.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 25.3 · winner's chance 40% · this far off in 97% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	36	44.9	+8.9	1	40%	80	89	4	1
2	Brunswick School Bruins	37	49.4	+12.4	2	54%	58	92	2	3
3	Greenwich High School Cardinals	38	58.3	+20.3	4	52%	58	96	3	4
4	Greenwich Academy Gator	57	56.4	-0.6	3	80%	31	63	1	2
5	Darien High School Blue Wave	71	80.9	+9.9	6	39%	70	75	6	6
6	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	72	69.5	-2.5	5	80%	28	51	5	5
7	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	103	84.6	-18.4	7	81%	33	12	7	7
8	The Williams School Blues	109	112.0	+3.0	8	53%	61	44	8	8
9	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	122	120.9	-1.1	9	50%	63	36	10	9
10	Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	128	121.8	-6.2	10	73%	40	27	11	10
11	Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons	163	143.1	-19.9	12	53%	61	0	12	12
12	Daniel Hand High School Tigers	180	138.3	-41.7	11	>99%	16	0	9	11

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 13.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 12.3 · winner's chance 3% · this far off in 73% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lincoln Academy Eagles	17	60.8	+43.8	4	3%	99	100	5	4
2	East Greenwich High School Avengers	46	50.2	+4.2	3	28%	81	73	7	3
3	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	48	32.7	-15.3	1	84%	22	24	1	1
4	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	54	46.9	-7.1	2	64%	42	42	2	2
5	Greely High School - Maine Rangers	61	72.5	+11.5	9	25%	79	75	8	9
6	Yarmouth High School Clippers	66	63.6	-2.4	7	52%	53	45	4	7
7	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	70	61.3	-8.7	5	70%	36	30	9	5
8	Camden Hills RHS Varsity	75	84.6	+9.6	10	38%	66	60	10	10
9	St. John Paul II School Lions	79	63.3	-15.7	6	83%	21	17	6	6
10	Portland High School Bulldogs	80	89.3	+9.3	11	50%	57	63	11	11
11	Oceanside High School Mariners	82	64.8	-17.2	8	96%	8	15	3	8
12	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	103	89.9	-13.1	12	>99%	11	5	12	12

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 14 teams · site model off 21.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 34.7 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 78% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Milton Academy Mustangs	73	124.4	+51.4	6	9%	96	98	9	8
2	Winchester High School Varsity	97	104.2	+7.2	3	36%	73	72	1	1
3	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	101	100.1	-0.9	2	56%	53	64	6	3
4	Belmont Hill School Varsity	102	94.0	-8.0	1	72%	33	54	2	2
5	Fairfield Prep Jesuits	115	126.4	+11.4	7	50%	56	69	5	6
6	Sharon High School Eagles	126	121.0	-5.0	5	65%	42	52	4	4
7	Hingham High School Harbormen	132	169.1	+37.1	10	22%	82	89	12	10
8	St. Johns Prep Varsity	138	114.5	-23.5	4	86%	18	28	7	5
9	Boston College High School Eagles	145	185.1	+40.1	11	31%	73	84	11	11
10	Wellesley High School Raiders	163	141.2	-21.8	8	90%	14	19	3	7
11	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	180	161.7	-18.3	9	82%	24	21	8	9
12	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	210	206.7	-3.3	13	48%	59	30	10	12
13	Moses Brown School Quakers	214	196.9	-17.1	12	86%	24	10	14	13
14	Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors	267	212.5	-54.5	14	>99%	17	0	13	14

NESSA O'Day Qualifier- Hyannis ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 20.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.3 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 83% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Dartmouth High School Sailing	41	93.3	+52.3	5	10%	95	99	3	3
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	54	55.9	+1.9	1	73%	41	77	1	1
3	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	74	116.4	+42.4	7	12%	91	95	8	7
4	Nantucket High School Whalers	81	83.8	+2.8	3	54%	54	70	5	5
5	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	86	65.6	-20.4	2	92%	12	24	2	2
6	Duxbury High School Dragons	93	99.2	+6.2	6	66%	43	70	4	4
7	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	103	91.0	-12.0	4	85%	20	33	6	6
8	Old Rochester Bulldogs	104	118.7	+14.7	8	55%	51	74	7	8
9	Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators	135	138.7	+3.7	9	41%	67	48	12	12
10	Salisbury School Knights	137	145.3	+8.3	11	50%	56	51	9	9
11	Falmouth High School, MA Clippers	156	144.7	-11.3	10	63%	45	23	13	13
12	Nauset Regional High School Nauset	184	145.3	-38.7	11	78%	29	2	9	9
13	Falmouth Academy Mariners	195	145.3	-49.7	11	>99%	10	0	9	9

NWISA Fleet Race Championships ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 34.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.8 · winner's chance 13% · this far off in 59% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Olympia High School Bears	101	185.3	+84.3	2	13%	93	100	1	4
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	155.5	162.9	+7.4	1	50%	61	74	4	1
3	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	163	187.0	+24.0	3	38%	67	81	2	3
4	Gig Harbor High School Tides	177	199.8	+22.8	7	37%	69	85	5	7
5	Garfield High School Bulldogs	183	195.4	+12.4	5	55%	51	73	3	5
6	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	217	223.7	+6.7	8	39%	66	65	8	8
7	Lakeside School Lions	222.3	187.5	-34.8	4	77%	27	30	6	2
8	Ballard High School Beavers	239	197.6	-41.4	6	83%	22	20	7	6
9	Ingraham High School Rams	251	274.7	+23.7	10	37%	66	63	9	9
10	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	252.2	263.5	+11.3	9	50%	56	61	10	10
11	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	274	302.0	+28.0	15	34%	70	67	12	15
12	Capital High School Cougars	294	286.3	-7.7	12	52%	54	40	16	12
13	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	297	342.0	+45.0	17	24%	79	75	14	17
14	Spring Street International School Green	310	288.6	-21.4	13	75%	31	23	13	14
15	Sehome High School Mariners	361.2	389.9	+28.7	19	7%	95	66	18	19
16	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	362	407.4	+45.4	20	6%	96	81	20	20
17	Anacortes High School Seahawks	364	275.7	-88.3	11	97%	5	2	11	11
18	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	365	323.6	-41.4	16	93%	11	10	17	16
19	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	372	291.2	-80.8	14	99%	2	3	15	13
20	Kingston High School Kraken	407	376.0	-31.0	18	>99%	9	14	19	18

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Boothbay ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 6.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 6.2 · winner's chance 2% · this far off in 3% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Sacred Heart Greenwich Varsity	23	36.8	+13.8	6	2%	99	97	6	6
2	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	24	27.9	+3.9	4	30%	79	75	2	3
2	East Greenwich High School Avengers	24	22.6	-1.4	1	55%	56	49	3	2
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	31	23.7	-7.3	3	88%	20	13	4	4
5	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	35	23.3	-11.7	2	96%	8	4	1	1
6	Islesboro Central School Eagles	37	33.7	-3.3	5	>99%	15	26	5	5

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 22.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 22.7 · winner's chance 16% · this far off in 69% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	31	68.8	+37.8	4	16%	92	99	3	4
2	Greenwich Academy Gator	37	61.4	+24.4	2	46%	65	99	1	2
3	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	61	81.4	+20.4	5	26%	80	88	5	5
4	Darien High School Blue Wave	67	52.4	-14.6	1	85%	21	30	2	1
5	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	72	64.2	-7.8	3	79%	28	44	4	3
6	The Williams School Blues	87	96.0	+9.0	7	45%	62	60	6	6
7	Branford High School Hornets	114	94.2	-19.8	6	61%	48	6	9	9
8	Milton Academy Mustangs	122	96.7	-25.3	9	81%	30	2	8	8
9	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	136	96.0	-40.0	7	>99%	12	0	6	6

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Hingham ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 13.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.0 · winner's chance 62% · this far off in 90% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	30	42.1	+12.1	1	62%	69	97	1	1
2	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	38	62.7	+24.7	2	33%	79	99	4	2
3	Hingham High School Harborwomen	59	89.8	+30.8	7	11%	92	97	11	10
4	Old Rochester RHS Bulldogs	74	66.8	-7.2	3	58%	49	44	3	4
5	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	85	87.1	+2.1	6	40%	66	50	5	6
6	Duxbury High School Dragons	94	90.2	-3.8	8	44%	62	34	7	7
6	Nantucket High School Whalers	94	78.3	-15.7	4	62%	43	21	6	5
8	Dartmouth High School Sailing	98	96.0	-2.0	10	56%	50	42	10	9
9	Winchester High School Women	101	80.3	-20.7	5	88%	15	13	2	3
10	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	116	114.0	-2.0	11	60%	50	30	9	11
11	Sharon High School Eagles	119	94.7	-24.3	9	>99%	5	5	8	8

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - North Kingstown ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 10.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 11.9 · winner's chance 95% · this far off in 5% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. George's School Dragons	13	17.6	+4.6	1	95%	52	99	1	1
2	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	39	54.2	+15.2	4	12%	94	92	4	4
3	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	41	60.9	+19.9	5	15%	90	97	5	5
4	North Kingstown High School Skippers	47	47.0	+0.0	3	80%	32	56	3	3
5	Rogers High School Vikings	67	67.0	+0.0	6	35%	75	41	7	7
6	Moses Brown School Quakers	69	69.9	+0.9	7	48%	60	42	8	8
7	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	75	36.4	-38.6	2	>99%	0	0	2	2
8	Lincoln School Lynxes	77	71.1	-5.9	8	>99%	16	15	6	6

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) ISSA · 05/18/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 10.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.4 · winner's chance 53% · this far off in 82% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. George's School Dragons	32	31.4	-0.6	1	53%	74	69	1	1
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	47	34.7	-12.3	2	71%	46	32	2	2
3	Greenwich Academy Gator	50	49.4	-0.6	3	60%	56	62	3	3
4	Tabor Academy Seawolves	52	57.5	+5.5	4	64%	50	76	4	4
5	North Kingstown High School Skippers	60	77.0	+17.0	5	38%	69	86	7	6
6	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	84	78.6	-5.4	6	55%	55	34	6	5
6	Portland High School Bulldogs	84	103.9	+19.9	10	9%	94	87	12	12
8	Old Rochester Bulldogs	93	94.0	+1.0	8	50%	57	49	8	8
9	Hingham High School Harborwomen	94	94.9	+0.9	9	66%	41	45	11	9
10	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	97	87.8	-9.2	7	84%	22	31	5	7
11	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	105	128.6	+23.6	13	26%	81	87	13	13
12	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	126	108.2	-17.8	12	87%	22	8	9	11
13	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	129	107.0	-22.0	11	>99%	6	5	10	10

Women's Eastern National Semi Finals ICSA · 05/20/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 15.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.8 · winner's chance 66% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	69	77.3	+8.3	1	66%	67	84	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	91	98.6	+7.6	2	57%	61	75	2	2
3	Boston College Eagles	98	139.5	+41.5	5	15%	89	97	4	6
4	Harvard University Crimson	106	115.1	+9.1	3	62%	46	75	3	3
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	116	126.8	+10.8	4	60%	47	75	6	4
6	University of South Florida Bulls	117	168.2	+51.2	10	18%	85	98	8	9
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	131	144.1	+13.1	8	60%	47	75	7	7
8	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	146	143.9	-2.1	7	70%	35	51	11	5
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	155	142.9	-12.1	6	79%	25	35	10	8
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	174	168.0	-6.0	9	62%	44	39	12	11
11	University of Hawaii Rainbows	199	182.5	-16.5	12	52%	55	23	5	10
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	200	178.8	-21.2	11	70%	36	18	9	12
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	200	196.0	-4.0	13	47%	60	38	13	13
14	Boston University Terriers	209	208.5	-0.5	14	60%	48	40	16	15
15	Fordham University Rams	240	214.1	-25.9	16	68%	42	10	17	16
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	255	211.7	-43.3	15	93%	17	2	14	14
17	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	260	257.7	-2.3	17	94%	41	33	15	17
18	University of Texas Longhorns	312	304.3	-7.7	18	>99%	46	19	18	18

Women's Western National Semi Finals ICSA · 05/20/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 19.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.6 · winner's chance 80% · this far off in 60% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	57	63.5	+6.5	1	80%	60	83	1	1
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	78	98.9	+20.9	3	34%	80	94	2	3
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	107	132.6	+25.6	6	13%	91	90	7	6
4	Brown University Bears	111	119.8	+8.8	4	47%	64	76	5	4
5	Tulane University Green Wave	124	92.6	-31.4	2	91%	12	16	4	2
6	Northeastern University Huskies	132	144.0	+12.0	7	46%	63	74	12	7
7	College of Charleston Cougars	141	126.3	-14.7	5	84%	22	32	3	5
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	155	168.4	+13.4	8	43%	65	72	11	9
9	Tufts University Jumbos	170	178.7	+8.7	10	44%	63	63	9	10
10	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	181	211.8	+30.8	13	21%	82	82	13	13
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	189	222.7	+33.7	14	22%	81	81	16	16
12	University of Rhode Island Rams	194	192.1	-1.9	11	70%	37	44	14	11
13	Jacksonville University Fins	202	170.6	-31.4	9	94%	9	11	8	8
14	Rollins College Tars	219	231.8	+12.8	16	39%	68	64	10	15
15	Clemson University Tigers	235	230.1	-4.9	15	58%	50	32	6	14
16	Christopher Newport University Captains	244	205.8	-38.2	12	92%	11	5	18	12
17	University of Vermont Catamounts	246	232.3	-13.7	17	89%	20	19	17	17
18	Northwestern University Wildcats	293	255.8	-37.2	18	>99%	23	1	15	18

Women's Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/22/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 37.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.6 · winner's chance 30% · this far off in 56% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	198	182.6	-15.4	2	30%	85	50	1	2
2	Tulane University Green Wave	209	246.1	+37.1	5	13%	91	86	7	5
3	Harvard University Crimson	223	271.0	+48.0	6	12%	92	92	6	6
4	Yale University Bulldogs	250	162.9	-87.1	1	98%	4	2	2	1
5	Cornell University Big Red	255	240.0	-15.0	3	64%	43	45	5	4
6	Boston College Eagles	277	323.9	+46.9	11	14%	89	85	9	12
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	284	240.7	-43.3	4	85%	20	18	3	3
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	287	332.0	+45.0	12	27%	77	82	13	14
9	Brown University Bears	294	295.7	+1.7	7	60%	45	53	8	7
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	297	309.6	+12.6	9	60%	45	61	11	9
11	College of Charleston Cougars	307	322.6	+15.6	10	59%	47	65	4	8
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	314	402.7	+88.7	17	11%	91	97	17	17
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	320	304.3	-15.7	8	86%	16	34	10	10
13	Northeastern University Huskies	320	357.0	+37.0	15	51%	55	78	18	15
15	Roger Williams University Hawks	371	346.0	-25.0	14	80%	25	23	16	13
16	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	388	333.9	-54.1	13	95%	9	6	14	11
17	University of South Florida Bulls	426	385.5	-40.5	16	84%	24	9	12	16
18	Tufts University Jumbos	453	415.6	-37.4	18	>99%	20	7	15	18

NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) ISSA · 05/24/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 23.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.8 · winner's chance 19% · this far off in 92% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	147	152.4	+5.4	3	19%	91	78	7	4
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	157	162.0	+5.0	4	35%	75	74	2	2
3	Brunswick School Bruins	165	147.3	-17.7	2	70%	39	49	3	3
4	St. George's School Dragons	175	142.4	-32.6	1	92%	15	28	1	1
5	Barrington High School Eagles	204	229.4	+25.4	6	33%	76	83	4	5
6	Greenwich High School Cardinals	230	203.2	-26.8	5	75%	33	33	9	6
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	251	291.2	+40.2	9	22%	83	82	12	10
8	Belmont Hill School Varsity	257	323.2	+66.2	12	22%	82	86	5	11
9	Dartmouth High School Sailing	261	262.4	+1.4	7	71%	35	53	8	7
10	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	277	290.7	+13.7	8	63%	43	59	11	9
11	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	303	303.9	+0.9	10	64%	42	49	6	8
12	Milton Academy Mustangs	304	312.4	+8.4	11	73%	32	50	13	12
13	East Greenwich High School Avengers	343	366.7	+23.7	15	40%	67	60	16	15
14	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	383	367.9	-15.1	16	58%	48	22	15	16
15	Winchester High School Varsity	395	363.6	-31.4	14	80%	29	8	10	14
16	Lincoln Academy Eagles	409	340.3	-68.7	13	>99%	5	1	14	13

Open Eastern Semi Finals ICSA · 05/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 19.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.9 · winner's chance 30% · this far off in 46% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	123	116.5	-6.5	2	30%	85	52	1	2
2	Brown University Bears	126	135.8	+9.8	3	24%	83	73	2	4
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	135	143.6	+8.6	5	29%	77	70	7	5
4	Tulane University Green Wave	139	136.8	-2.2	4	52%	55	55	4	3
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	141	149.8	+8.8	6	47%	59	69	10	6
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	148	159.3	+11.3	7	45%	61	70	12	7
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	154	213.0	+59.0	12	7%	95	97	15	12
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	154	169.2	+15.2	8	43%	63	73	13	9
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	157	181.7	+24.7	10	52%	54	81	9	10
10	Cornell University Big Red	164	173.6	+9.6	9	72%	33	66	5	8
11	Roger Williams University Hawks	169	112.5	-56.5	1	>99%	0	3	3	1
12	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	174	184.4	+10.4	11	87%	18	67	8	11
13	Webb Institute Clippers	229	239.1	+10.1	15	36%	71	55	6	15
14	Florida State University Seminoles	245	253.5	+8.5	16	34%	72	52	14	16
15	Northeastern University Huskies	250	235.3	-14.7	14	77%	32	21	16	14
16	Eckerd College Tritons	268	232.5	-35.5	13	91%	16	7	11	13
17	Connecticut College Camels	302	263.0	-39.0	17	95%	22	2	18	17
18	University of Michigan Wolverines	342	320.3	-21.7	18	>99%	45	3	17	18

Open Western Semi Finals ICSA · 05/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 29.0 · winner's chance 31% · this far off in 60% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	82	110.0	+28.0	1	31%	84	98	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	94	126.1	+32.1	4	32%	77	96	2	3
3	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	143	184.8	+41.8	10	2%	99	94	16	11
4	Boston College Eagles	149	132.5	-16.5	5	52%	56	32	5	5
4	College of Charleston Cougars	149	124.9	-24.1	2	64%	43	23	7	2
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	153	160.1	+7.1	7	38%	68	65	6	7
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	153	151.9	-1.1	6	49%	57	56	3	6
8	Tufts University Jumbos	159	164.0	+5.0	8	58%	47	57	9	9
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	189	170.0	-19.0	9	62%	44	28	12	8
10	Jacksonville University Fins	190	203.2	+13.2	12	34%	71	66	4	12
11	Fordham University Rams	196	201.2	+5.2	11	51%	56	53	14	13
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	199	125.7	-73.3	3	>99%	1	1	8	4
13	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	213	205.8	-7.2	13	75%	32	35	10	10
14	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	227	241.8	+14.8	16	44%	64	61	13	15
15	University of Wisconsin Badgers	255	290.7	+35.7	17	8%	95	86	18	17
16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	257	241.5	-15.5	15	90%	23	20	17	16
17	University of South Florida Bulls	258	226.4	-31.6	14	99%	3	9	11	14
18	University of Texas Longhorns	301	306.2	+5.2	18	>99%	30	41	15	18

Open Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/29/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 24.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.9 · winner's chance 35% · this far off in 20% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	58	86.0	+28.0	1	35%	82	97	1	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	74	128.5	+54.5	8	6%	96	99	6	8
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	91	136.4	+45.4	12	7%	95	97	10	12
4	Yale University Bulldogs	98	106.9	+8.9	3	45%	61	71	3	4
5	Harvard University Crimson	107	96.4	-10.6	2	72%	33	37	2	2
6	Brown University Bears	113	114.0	+1.0	6	52%	53	55	4	6
7	Tufts University Jumbos	119	145.1	+26.1	14	23%	79	80	13	15
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	132	179.5	+47.5	18	3%	98	96	18	18
9	College of Charleston Cougars	135	113.3	-21.7	4	74%	29	20	11	3
10	Boston College Eagles	136	113.4	-22.6	5	80%	22	17	9	7
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	140	134.4	-5.6	9	60%	44	37	12	11
12	Tulane University Green Wave	142	115.7	-26.3	7	90%	12	12	7	5
13	University of Miami Hurricanes	148	143.9	-4.1	13	61%	43	41	15	13
14	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	149	154.1	+5.1	17	54%	50	54	17	17
15	Georgetown University Hoyas	151	135.1	-15.9	11	88%	16	22	5	9
16	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	168	134.7	-33.3	10	93%	10	7	14	10
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	174	150.8	-23.2	15	93%	12	10	8	14
18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	206	153.0	-53.0	16	>99%	5	0	16	16

ISSA Fleet Nationals (Mallory Trophy) ISSA · 05/31/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 38.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 87.6 · winner's chance 64% · this far off in 64% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	266.6	205.4	-61.2	1	64%	68	21	4	1
2	Antilles School Hurricanes	270	295.2	+25.2	3	26%	82	74	9	5
3	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	294	324.8	+30.8	6	19%	87	81	8	6
4	Severn School Admirals	301	299.1	-1.9	4	49%	59	61	1	4
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	307.8	301.4	-6.4	5	62%	46	58	3	3
6	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	326	379.8	+53.8	9	23%	81	87	11	9
7	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	327	259.2	-67.8	2	96%	6	14	7	2
7	St. George's School Dragons	327	392.6	+65.6	11	27%	78	90	10	11
9	Tabor Academy Seawolves	345	391.2	+46.2	10	49%	56	79	13	12
10	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	351	365.5	+14.5	7	72%	33	63	15	10
11	Southern Regional High School Rams	407	419.0	+12.0	12	52%	54	61	5	8
12	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	443	428.4	-14.6	13	61%	46	38	19	14
13	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	444	374.7	-69.3	8	95%	9	10	2	7
14	Jones College Prep Eagles	445	531.7	+86.7	16	22%	84	94	14	15
15	Wayzata High School Navy	544	595.8	+51.8	18	6%	96	79	20	16
16	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	547	471.4	-75.6	14	91%	15	6	6	13
17	Lake Forest High School Scouts	559	518.0	-41.0	15	87%	20	14	18	18
18	Olympia High School Bears	603	607.3	+4.3	19	52%	59	35	16	19
19	Clear Lake High School Falcons Green	621	583.0	-38.0	17	83%	25	18	12	17
20	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	643	636.6	-6.4	20	>99%	21	28	17	20

Fall 2025

2025 NWISA WINB Regatta (PCISA Girls' Qualifiers) ISSA · 09/13/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 38.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.8 · winner's chance 3% · this far off in 38% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lions	43	125.1	+82.1	8	3%	99	99	7	8
2	Capital High School Cougars	57	106.9	+49.9	5	7%	95	99	14	7
3	Lakeside School Lions	67	48.6	-18.4	1	88%	17	34	1	1
4	Olympia High School Bears 1	68	73.5	+5.5	2	64%	43	81	5	2
5	Southern ME 2	73.5	125.1	+51.6	8	22%	81	93	7	8
6	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	74	89.8	+15.8	3	61%	44	86	3	3
7	Southern ME 3	78	125.1	+47.1	8	31%	72	93	7	8
8	Beavers	103	125.1	+22.1	8	39%	65	73	7	8
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	113	92.3	-20.7	4	83%	21	22	2	4
10	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	121	107.6	-13.4	6	72%	32	32	4	5
11	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	147	112.9	-34.1	7	74%	30	12	6	6
12	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	163	134.4	-28.6	15	64%	41	8	15	15
13	Olympia High School Bears 2	167	133.2	-33.8	14	77%	28	5	13	14
14	Southern ME 1	198	125.1	-72.9	8	90%	15	0	7	8
15	Olympia High School Bears 3	205	125.1	-79.9	8	>99%	5	0	7	8

MISSA Girls Championship 2025 ISSA · 09/20/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 15.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 31.0 · winner's chance 82% · this far off in 49% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	49	62.8	+13.8	1	82%	59	98	2	1
2	Minnetonka High School Skippers	118	132.5	+14.5	4	3%	99	84	3	3
3	Madison West Varsity	120	83.0	-37.0	2	98%	4	4	1	2
4	New Trier HS Trevian	126	132.2	+6.2	3	71%	45	69	6	4
5	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	135	157.3	+22.3	5	46%	68	90	8	6
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	165.4	173.3	+7.9	7	43%	66	57	5	7
7	East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	170	159.5	-10.5	6	84%	25	27	4	5
8	Loyola Academy Ramblers	194	179.3	-14.7	8	>99%	20	9	7	8

NESSA Great Oaks Qualifier ISSA · 09/20/2025 · 14 teams · site model off 7.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.9 · winner's chance 35% · this far off in 86% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Staples High School Wreckers	8	14.5	+6.5	1	35%	82	83	1	1
2	Greely High School - Maine Rangers	10	29.9	+19.9	9	8%	94	98	12	9
3	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	15	19.5	+4.5	3	44%	62	71	2	3
3	Sharon High School Eagles	15	20.7	+5.7	4	34%	72	80	8	4
5	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	23	26.4	+3.4	7	35%	70	66	6	7
6	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	28	24.8	-3.2	6	53%	52	39	7	5
6	East Greenwich High School Avengers	28	19.1	-8.9	2	71%	33	20	10	2
8	Guilford High School Grizzlies	30	23.0	-7.0	5	71%	33	31	3	6
8	Portland High School Bulldogs	30	35.8	+5.8	12	34%	69	67	11	12
10	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	33	29.9	-3.1	8	74%	31	34	4	8
11	Duxbury High School Dragons	36	41.1	+5.1	13	45%	60	63	13	13
12	Wilton High School Warriors	39	32.3	-6.7	10	82%	22	26	5	10
13	Cheverus High School Varsity	46	41.6	-4.4	14	77%	33	26	14	14
14	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	51	33.3	-17.7	11	>99%	4	2	9	11

Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 09/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 21.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.9 · winner's chance 20% · this far off in 59% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	61	104.8	+43.8	1	20%	90	100	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	96	105.3	+9.3	2	40%	69	77	7	2
3	Brown University Bears	97	107.0	+10.0	3	50%	57	79	4	3
4	Tulane University Green Wave	106	140.2	+34.2	7	24%	80	90	3	8
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	115	110.0	-5.0	4	72%	35	51	9	4
6	College of Charleston Cougars	133	147.5	+14.5	8	30%	75	75	2	7
7	Harvard University Crimson	147	115.3	-31.7	5	85%	20	14	6	5
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	160	176.0	+16.0	10	23%	82	70	12	10
9	Boston College Eagles	165	161.5	-3.5	9	55%	52	43	13	9
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	172	182.3	+10.3	11	44%	62	59	14	11
11	Roger Williams University Hawks	174	115.5	-58.5	6	99%	1	1	8	6
12	Jacksonville University Fins	179	217.8	+38.8	16	18%	85	92	10	16
13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	188	201.1	+13.1	14	58%	49	61	15	14
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	206	188.9	-17.1	12	83%	23	21	5	12
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	210	211.1	+1.1	15	76%	34	46	16	15
16	Columbia University Lions	246	200.2	-45.8	13	98%	7	2	11	13
17	Boston University Terriers	285	276.2	-8.8	17	83%	51	19	17	17
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	320	299.4	-20.6	18	>99%	41	0	18	18

Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A ICSA · 09/27/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 19.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.7 · winner's chance 17% · this far off in 72% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Dartmouth College Big Green	73	90.7	+17.7	3	17%	91	90	5	3
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	75	80.8	+5.8	2	62%	53	77	1	2
3	Tufts University Jumbos	81	102.7	+21.7	4	42%	68	90	4	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	101	75.7	-25.3	1	95%	9	19	2	1
5	Northeastern University Huskies	104	151.4	+47.4	8	15%	89	99	12	9
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	127	147.2	+20.2	6	35%	72	84	10	7
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	142	166.1	+24.1	11	26%	78	81	14	11
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	144	133.5	-10.5	5	78%	26	39	6	5
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	164	150.6	-13.4	7	70%	36	30	7	8
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	182	155.7	-26.3	9	74%	32	13	8	10
11	University of South Florida Bulls	183	178.1	-4.9	12	55%	52	41	9	12
12	Connecticut College Camels	188	212.3	+24.3	13	25%	81	78	15	15
13	Rollins College Tars	206	157.4	-48.6	10	97%	5	2	3	6
14	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	227	218.3	-8.7	14	57%	52	28	13	13
15	Clemson University Tigers	234	225.4	-8.6	15	69%	43	25	11	14
16	Fordham University Rams	242	232.1	-9.9	16	85%	28	22	17	16
17	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	267	259.0	-8.0	17	>99%	30	21	16	17

MISSA NE Great Lakes Championships ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 14.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.7 · winner's chance 63% · this far off in 83% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Grand Haven High School GH Blue	61	71.3	+10.3	1	63%	68	85	1	1
2	Spring Lake High School Red	84	102.8	+18.8	3	31%	79	85	2	3
3	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	92	117.6	+25.6	5	16%	89	95	8	7
4	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	101	94.6	-6.4	2	77%	31	43	3	2
5	Black River Public School Varsity	102	118.0	+16.0	6	55%	53	77	4	5
6	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	124	105.6	-18.4	4	86%	20	17	6	4
7	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	139	127.3	-11.7	7	65%	44	28	5	6
8	East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	140	132.5	-7.5	8	79%	31	32	7	8
9	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	167	150.2	-16.8	9	88%	33	12	9	9
10	Troy High School Troy	190	180.1	-9.9	10	>99%	39	18	10	10

MISSA SW Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 11.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.7 · winner's chance 80% · this far off in 96% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	25	45.6	+20.6	1	80%	60	100	1	1
2	New Trier HS Trevian	66	67.3	+1.3	2	54%	69	68	5	2
3	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	80	112.2	+32.2	7	7%	96	96	4	8
4	Lake Forest High School Scouts	88	78.2	-9.8	3	69%	39	38	6	3
5	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	89	87.3	-1.7	4	71%	38	54	7	4
6	Latin School of Chicago Romans	92	106.5	+14.5	6	46%	61	79	2	6
7	Loyola Academy Ramblers	118	103.6	-14.4	5	66%	42	22	9	5
8	Whitney Young Dolphins	121	125.2	+4.2	11	40%	66	56	10	11
9	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	132	119.2	-12.8	9	68%	42	21	11	10
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	135	120.6	-14.4	10	78%	30	24	8	9
10	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	135	114.5	-20.5	8	87%	19	13	3	7
12	DePaul College Prep Rams	176	176.3	+0.3	12	67%	61	36	12	12
13	Glenbrook South High School Titans	191	186.4	-4.6	13	>99%	32	18	13	13

MISSA Southeast Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 4.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 5.1 · winner's chance 86% · this far off in 14% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Pirates	7	10.1	+3.1	1	86%	57	95	1	1
2	Olentangy High School Braves	14	21.3	+7.3	3	25%	86	97	3	3
3	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	24	25.4	+1.4	4	35%	73	53	4	6
3	Upper Arlington UA Bears	24	25.4	+1.4	5	28%	81	58	5	5
5	Dublin Jerome Celtics	27	25.5	-1.5	6	75%	39	31	6	4
6	Bay High School Rockets	30	18.3	-11.7	2	>99%	2	1	2	2

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A ICSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 16.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 25.2 · winner's chance 13% · this far off in 76% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	68	89.0	+21.0	3	13%	93	92	7	3
2	Stanford University Cardinal	80	66.5	-13.5	1	76%	35	35	1	1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	88	87.9	-0.1	2	49%	60	60	2	2
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	92	113.7	+21.7	6	25%	80	86	10	6
5	Cornell University Big Red	102	124.8	+22.8	9	20%	83	86	9	8
6	Jacksonville University Fins	103	130.8	+27.8	10	20%	84	91	5	10
6	Yale University Bulldogs	103	99.4	-3.6	5	68%	38	51	3	5
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	104	122.4	+18.4	8	55%	50	81	13	9
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	110	115.3	+5.3	7	73%	31	62	12	7
10	Georgetown University Hoyas	127	95.6	-31.4	4	96%	5	10	4	4
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	136	144.9	+8.9	11	51%	54	63	11	11
12	University of Miami Hurricanes	159	151.7	-7.3	13	52%	53	37	8	13
13	Eckerd College Tritons	169	167.4	-1.6	15	41%	64	40	14	15
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	175	198.9	+23.9	18	12%	91	80	16	18
15	Connecticut College Camels	176	162.7	-13.3	14	77%	30	22	17	14
16	George Washington University Revolutionaries	193	147.7	-45.3	12	95%	8	2	15	12
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	201	188.5	-12.5	17	75%	34	23	6	16
18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	208	186.9	-21.1	16	>99%	9	9	18	17

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 19.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.0 · winner's chance 31% · this far off in 80% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	57	83.2	+26.2	2	31%	84	96	2	2
2	Harvard University Crimson	66	82.8	+16.8	1	58%	54	90	1	1
3	College of Charleston Cougars	85	93.2	+8.2	3	52%	56	76	5	3
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	107	140.2	+33.2	7	11%	92	92	10	7
5	Boston College Eagles	109	113.6	+4.6	6	53%	55	65	3	6
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	110	103.0	-7.0	4	81%	25	47	7	4
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	123	155.5	+32.5	9	24%	81	90	15	9
8	Tulane University Green Wave	138	107.7	-30.3	5	91%	12	14	4	5
9	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	139	162.9	+23.9	10	38%	67	81	9	10
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	159	170.9	+11.9	12	37%	68	64	14	13
11	Tufts University Jumbos	161	149.4	-11.6	8	75%	30	33	11	8
12	Webb Institute Clippers	180	165.5	-14.5	11	66%	40	26	6	11
13	Fordham University Rams	193	173.0	-20.0	13	65%	41	19	17	12
14	University of South Florida Bulls	200	190.0	-10.0	16	56%	51	28	8	16
15	Old Dominion University Monarchs	215	180.5	-34.5	14	82%	25	5	12	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	227	242.4	+15.4	18	14%	90	66	18	18
17	Florida State University Seminoles	233	187.5	-45.5	15	98%	5	1	16	15
18	Hampton University Pirates	234	234.7	+0.7	17	>99%	18	38	13	17

2025 MISSA East Great Oaks Qualifier ISSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 10.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 14.2 · winner's chance 14% · this far off in 83% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Westerville Central High School Warhawks	9	28.7	+19.7	3	14%	93	100	3	3
2	Black River Public School Varsity	14	21.2	+7.2	2	63%	50	90	2	2
3	Spring Lake High School Red	36	20.8	-15.2	1	82%	26	10	1	1
4	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	38	39.8	+1.8	5	34%	73	62	6	5
5	New Albany High School Eagles	40	55.4	+15.4	8	15%	88	87	7	8
5	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	40	53.6	+13.6	7	17%	86	85	14	9
7	Dublin Coffman Rocks	48	38.8	-9.2	4	72%	32	31	5	4
8	Olentangy High School Braves	50	68.1	+18.1	13	15%	88	89	17	11
9	Rocky River High School Varsity	52	42.2	-9.8	6	80%	23	28	4	6
10	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	60	69.9	+9.9	14	34%	69	67	16	15
11	Culver Academies Eagles	64	61.2	-2.8	10	57%	47	42	15	10
12	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	66	66.6	+0.6	12	56%	50	49	8	12
13	Dublin Jerome Varsity	69	56.5	-12.5	9	84%	20	19	11	7
14	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	73	64.3	-8.7	11	72%	32	31	9	13
14	Troy High School Varsity	73	79.1	+6.1	17	46%	59	59	12	17
16	Upper Arlington UA Bears	82	70.6	-11.4	15	90%	16	17	10	14
17	Danbury High School Danbury	93	75.6	-17.4	16	84%	23	19	13	16
18	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	101	95.6	-5.4	18	>99%	24	17	18	18

Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals ICSA · 10/11/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 30.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 37.3 · winner's chance 71% · this far off in 73% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	136	142.8	+6.8	1	71%	64	78	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	152	229.5	+77.5	7	10%	94	99	7	6
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	164	226.2	+62.2	6	21%	84	98	8	5
4	Brown University Bears	179	210.6	+31.6	4	47%	60	88	6	4
5	Cornell University Big Red	216	240.2	+24.2	8	30%	74	77	10	8
6	Yale University Bulldogs	225	203.4	-21.6	2	73%	32	35	4	2
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	226	210.4	-15.6	3	78%	26	40	2	3
8	Tulane University Green Wave	252	249.5	-2.5	9	50%	54	51	5	9
9	Tufts University Jumbos	256	259.2	+3.2	10	53%	52	54	9	11
10	Boston College Eagles	272	298.4	+26.4	12	26%	78	75	15	12
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	286	326.0	+40.0	15	20%	83	79	12	14
12	College of Charleston Cougars	294	262.3	-31.7	11	79%	25	21	3	10
13	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	301	224.9	-76.1	5	98%	3	2	11	7
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	329	331.4	+2.4	16	44%	62	42	14	17
15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	336	324.1	-11.9	14	66%	40	28	17	15
16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	354	314.4	-39.6	13	82%	23	10	13	13
17	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	385	365.8	-19.2	18	57%	54	18	18	18
18	Northeastern University Huskies	390	332.9	-57.1	17	>99%	6	2	16	16

Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/11/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 21.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.0 · winner's chance 89% · this far off in 77% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	105	103.9	-1.1	1	89%	56	69	3	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	138	190.1	+52.1	5	16%	91	97	6	3
3	Connecticut College Camels	161	242.2	+81.2	10	8%	94	98	11	10
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	163	184.7	+21.7	3	50%	57	83	1	4
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	190	189.5	-0.5	4	57%	50	59	5	5
6	Rollins College Tars	196	204.5	+8.5	7	54%	52	65	2	6
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	200	209.6	+9.6	8	58%	47	62	9	8
8	Jacksonville University Fins	224	203.4	-20.6	6	79%	27	30	4	7
9	George Washington University Revolutionaries	255	177.0	-78.0	2	96%	5	1	8	2
10	Columbia University Lions	259	232.9	-26.1	9	81%	28	19	7	9
11	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	287	286.5	-0.5	12	40%	69	42	10	11
12	Fordham University Rams	288	289.7	+1.7	13	56%	55	44	12	13
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	292	271.0	-21.0	11	88%	18	21	13	12
14	Boston University Terriers	336	333.8	-2.2	15	49%	64	33	16	15
15	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	349	325.8	-23.2	14	86%	27	15	15	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	366	363.2	-2.8	16	>99%	30	31	14	16

2025 Sea Otter Regatta - GOLD ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 28 teams · site model off 58.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 107.9 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 14% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	104	182.6	+78.6	3	7%	96	100	1	2
2	San Marcos High School Royals	131	217.9	+86.9	4	8%	95	100	14	4
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	135	131.4	-3.6	2	78%	29	69	2	3
4	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	156	127.6	-28.4	1	97%	5	43	3	1
5	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	192	273.5	+81.5	8	15%	89	98	21	8
6	Dos Pueblos Chargers 1	220	306.5	+86.5	9	17%	86	94	16	10
7	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	240	219.3	-20.7	5	67%	37	51	11	5
8	Redwood Giants 1	266.5	252.0	-14.5	7	68%	38	50	8	7
9	Redwood Giants 2	282	315.6	+33.6	10	38%	66	73	5	9
10	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	288	242.7	-45.3	6	90%	13	27	6	6
11	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	288.6	319.6	+31.0	11	54%	51	73	10	11
12	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	361	539.3	+178.3	24	1%	99	99	23	24
13	Crossroads Varsity	364	332.6	-31.4	12	65%	39	37	24	13
14	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	371	355.3	-15.7	13	66%	39	40	17	12
15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	387	366.1	-20.9	14	68%	37	37	18	15
16	Stevenson School Pirates	443	392.8	-50.2	15	61%	44	17	4	14
17	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	462	540.1	+78.1	25	5%	96	85	28	27
18	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	463	410.3	-52.7	17	68%	36	20	13	16
19	Design Tech High School Dragons	490	554.9	+64.9	26	7%	94	80	25	25
20	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	492.9	423.9	-69.0	18	80%	24	8	19	17
21	Dos Pueblos Chargers 2	493.6	624.6	+131.0	28	12%	89	84	26	28
22	Parker	503	396.5	-106.5	16	94%	7	4	9	19
23	Coronado Islanders Islanders	516.1	478.5	-37.6	20	78%	27	18	15	20
24	Carlmont The Scots	535	446.2	-88.8	19	91%	11	6	7	18
25	San Pedro High School Pirates	539.5	500.8	-38.7	22	85%	19	15	12	21
26	Alameda High School Hornets	559	506.9	-52.1	23	90%	14	10	22	23
27	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	577	570.4	-6.6	27	82%	28	30	27	26
28	Bishop's School Knights	593	500.1	-92.9	21	>99%	1	1	20	22

2025 Sea Otter Regatta - SILVER ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 32 teams · site model off 72.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 86.4 · winner's chance 39% · this far off in 97% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Junipero Serra High School JSerra	120	155.2	+35.2	1	39%	80	90	3	1
2	SF University High School Red Devils	122	309.1	+187.1	11	3%	98	100	13	13
3	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	136	181.6	+45.6	2	56%	50	90	1	2
4	Blue and Gold Varsity	172	313.8	+141.8	13	8%	93	100	8	14
5	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	185.5	256.7	+71.2	4	30%	74	96	10	5
6	The Urban School Blues	201	288.4	+87.4	7	25%	77	93	12	9
7	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	204	276.9	+72.9	5	34%	68	90	2	4
8	Stevenson School Pirates	220	319.4	+99.4	14	20%	81	96	9	16
9	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	240.5	243.1	+2.6	3	70%	33	60	7	3
10	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	259.5	300.4	+40.9	9	37%	65	79	11	8
11	San Domenico High School Panthers	261	297.0	+36.0	8	44%	59	80	16	12
12	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	266	331.4	+65.4	18	36%	66	79	19	17
13	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	278	301.6	+23.6	10	48%	53	67	5	10
14	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	282.1	386.7	+104.6	26	18%	84	93	31	27
15	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	299	320.2	+21.2	15	47%	55	67	6	7
16	Burlingame High School Burlingame	320	313.5	-6.5	12	58%	44	48	23	15
16	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	320	403.6	+83.6	30	28%	73	75	24	30
18	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	339	342.0	+3.0	19	53%	49	48	22	18
19	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	357	391.0	+34.0	27	32%	70	64	30	31
20	Alameda High School Hornets	369	323.1	-45.9	17	67%	35	27	17	20
21	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	379	392.3	+13.3	28	41%	60	50	26	25
22	Carmel High School Padres	380.7	351.1	-29.6	21	65%	37	31	14	19
23	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	400	374.1	-25.9	22	54%	48	36	27	26
24	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	412	287.6	-124.4	6	87%	14	8	4	6
25	Encinal High School Jets	415	439.9	+24.9	32	41%	61	50	32	32
26	Miramonte High School Matadors	434	375.6	-58.4	23	68%	34	21	18	23
27	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	440	348.7	-91.3	20	86%	16	6	25	24
28	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	464	322.5	-141.5	16	92%	10	2	15	11
29	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	518	414.5	-103.5	31	75%	29	2	29	29
30	Monterey High School Toreadores	529.9	382.2	-147.7	24	83%	20	4	20	21
31	Marin Catholic Wildcats	530	402.4	-127.6	29	90%	14	2	28	28
32	Proof School Proof	604	382.2	-221.8	24	>99%	4	0	20	21

Northwest Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 9.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.2 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 93% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Latin School of Chicago Romans	37	49.8	+12.8	1	38%	81	92	1	1
2	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	45	58.3	+13.3	3	31%	79	94	2	3
3	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	52	52.9	+0.9	2	64%	45	62	3	2
4	Pewaukee High School Pirates	54	58.4	+4.4	4	67%	40	67	4	4
5	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	70	62.7	-7.3	5	80%	31	23	6	5
6	Loyola Academy Ramblers	89	70.0	-19.0	6	84%	31	5	5	6
7	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	94	88.9	-5.1	7	>99%	34	19	7	7

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Finals ICSA · 10/18/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 25.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.8 · winner's chance 26% · this far off in >99% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	135	178.8	+43.8	2	26%	87	97	2	2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	152	164.2	+12.2	1	65%	46	79	1	1
3	Tulane University Green Wave	159	217.8	+58.8	5	26%	79	97	7	6
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	182	225.5	+43.5	7	29%	76	93	9	8
5	Brown University Bears	190	209.6	+19.6	3	57%	50	81	6	3
6	College of Charleston Cougars	209	217.1	+8.1	4	60%	46	65	10	4
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	221	222.4	+1.4	6	66%	38	55	4	7
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	234	243.3	+9.3	9	53%	52	63	11	9
9	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	265	277.1	+12.1	11	32%	73	62	12	11
10	Boston College Eagles	271	233.7	-37.3	8	83%	21	16	3	5
11	Yale University Bulldogs	285	267.4	-17.6	10	63%	42	29	8	10
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	308	290.5	-17.5	12	51%	54	29	13	12
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	325	302.6	-22.4	14	53%	53	21	17	14
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	332	290.6	-41.4	13	75%	30	12	15	13
15	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	350	369.4	+19.4	18	22%	82	55	16	18
16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	357	344.2	-12.8	16	59%	52	26	18	16
17	Jacksonville University Fins	373	303.7	-69.3	15	97%	6	1	5	15
18	Cornell University Big Red	378	358.0	-20.0	17	>99%	14	15	14	17

Open Atlantic Coast Tournament Finals ICSA · 10/18/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 29.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 49.3 · winner's chance 63% · this far off in 76% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	143.8	+31.8	1	63%	68	95	1	1
2	Tufts University Jumbos	161	171.6	+10.6	2	55%	62	78	4	2
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	163	204.7	+41.7	3	38%	70	91	6	3
4	George Washington University Revolutionaries	213	257.4	+44.4	10	10%	92	92	12	8
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	221	227.4	+6.4	5	45%	62	61	2	4
6	University of South Florida Bulls	225	272.6	+47.6	13	17%	86	89	7	12
7	Fordham University Rams	233	258.3	+25.3	11	35%	69	76	16	10
8	Connecticut College Camels	237	246.5	+9.5	7	56%	49	62	11	9
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	239	255.5	+16.5	9	54%	49	63	5	11
10	Eckerd College Tritons	250	253.0	+3.0	8	64%	40	54	9	7
11	Webb Institute Clippers	258	226.9	-31.1	4	88%	14	24	3	5
12	University of Vermont Catamounts	276	308.1	+32.1	14	35%	69	74	13	16
13	Florida State University Seminoles	279	270.7	-8.3	12	77%	28	41	14	13
14	Old Dominion University Monarchs	287	245.1	-41.9	6	97%	5	11	10	6
15	University of Michigan Wolverines	327	312.9	-14.1	15	65%	41	34	8	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	389	376.6	-12.4	18	24%	82	23	18	18
17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	412	326.4	-85.6	16	94%	15	0	17	15
18	Hampton University Pirates	434	358.6	-75.4	17	>99%	14	0	15	17

Fall Brawl 2025 ISSA · 10/18/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 20.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.3 · winner's chance 28% · this far off in 2% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Fairhope High School Pirates	40	49.1	+9.1	2	28%	86	78	2	2
2	Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings	59	54.4	-4.6	3	37%	72	49	3	3
3	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	63	91.1	+28.1	11	3%	98	96	8	9
4	Bay High School (FL) Bay High School	67	87.3	+20.3	10	13%	90	86	10	11
5	Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing	69	79.7	+10.7	7	29%	75	75	9	8
6	St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals	72	80.6	+8.6	8	41%	65	68	11	10
7	UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity	77	47.1	-29.9	1	98%	4	3	1	1
8	St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish	83	73.8	-9.2	4	73%	32	31	4	4
9	Niceville High School Varsity	88	73.8	-14.2	4	81%	23	23	4	4
10	Bayshore Christian School Eagles	118	81.3	-36.7	9	86%	20	1	7	7
11	Gulfport High School Admirals	125	73.8	-51.2	4	>99%	6	0	4	4

SAISA Fall Women's Championship ICSA · 10/24/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 14.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.5 · winner's chance 79% · this far off in 62% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	63	64.1	+1.1	1	79%	60	69	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	71	92.5	+21.5	2	55%	66	95	4	2
3	Rollins College Tars	99	105.7	+6.7	3	64%	54	72	2	3
4	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	131	155.6	+24.6	5	13%	92	88	5	5
5	Jacksonville University Fins	132	111.0	-21.0	4	98%	7	18	3	4
6	University of Miami Hurricanes	175	172.9	-2.1	6	57%	59	38	7	7
7	Clemson University Tigers	203	173.4	-29.6	7	88%	30	5	6	6
8	Florida State University Seminoles	218	212.8	-5.2	8	>99%	37	25	8	8

84th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 21.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.7 · winner's chance 65% · this far off in 89% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	127	118.1	-8.9	1	65%	67	55	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	128	200.4	+72.4	6	6%	97	100	4	6
3	Brown University Bears	172	152.4	-19.6	2	65%	46	36	5	2
4	Boston College Eagles	192	193.8	+1.8	5	33%	75	61	3	5
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	201	166.9	-34.1	4	81%	27	19	2	4
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	201	160.4	-40.6	3	85%	22	14	6	3
7	Tufts University Jumbos	221	208.3	-12.7	7	69%	40	39	7	7
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	238	224.5	-13.5	8	71%	40	38	11	8
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	243	283.0	+40.0	11	24%	82	88	9	10
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	262	277.0	+15.0	10	48%	59	64	12	11
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	292	261.8	-30.2	9	79%	28	17	14	9
12	Northeastern University Huskies	295	301.3	+6.3	12	54%	54	53	8	12
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	300	338.5	+38.5	15	33%	74	82	13	15
14	Boston University Terriers	304	313.4	+9.4	14	78%	32	56	16	14
15	Connecticut College Camels	309	301.5	-7.5	13	98%	8	36	15	13
16	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	402	386.4	-15.6	16	78%	49	18	10	16
17	Salve Regina University Seahawks	407	415.5	+8.5	17	98%	39	47	17	17
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	494	484.8	-9.2	18	>99%	48	11	18	18

MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 27.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.7 · winner's chance 66% · this far off in 4% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	68	86.8	+18.8	1	66%	67	97	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	76	101.0	+25.0	2	87%	40	97	2	2
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	136	182.7	+46.7	7	8%	95	99	9	7
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	165	178.0	+13.0	6	31%	76	71	7	6
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	174	148.1	-25.9	3	86%	21	20	4	3
6	George Washington University Revolutionaries	196	173.1	-22.9	5	70%	38	24	6	5
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	201	278.8	+77.8	11	2%	98	99	8	11
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	209	170.5	-38.5	4	96%	8	9	5	4
9	Columbia University Lions	230	196.6	-33.4	8	94%	12	12	3	8
10	Fordham University Rams	241	248.6	+7.6	10	76%	43	58	13	10
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	283	233.7	-49.3	9	98%	7	2	11	9
12	William and Mary Tribe	339	345.2	+6.2	14	15%	91	46	12	13
13	Washington College Shoremen	340	352.1	+12.1	15	33%	77	56	14	15
14	Princeton University Tigers	345	329.1	-15.9	12	87%	23	20	15	14
15	University of Virginia Wahoos	357	335.8	-21.2	13	>99%	10	13	10	12

NEISA Fall Tournament ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 22.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 31.4 · winner's chance 22% · this far off in 20% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	70	103.6	+33.6	2	22%	89	100	5	2
2	Middlebury College Panthers	110	113.0	+3.0	3	37%	75	60	2	3
3	Bentley University Falcons	113	127.2	+14.2	4	39%	70	75	3	4
4	University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen	123	138.3	+15.3	5	48%	63	72	4	5
5	Brandeis University Judges	141	90.3	-50.7	1	>99%	2	1	1	1
6	Sacred Heart University Pioneers	202	183.6	-18.4	6	>99%	40	7	6	6

PCCSC Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 32.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 64.4 · winner's chance 97% · this far off in 97% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	83	78.1	-4.9	1	97%	51	61	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	121	175.6	+54.6	3	46%	76	97	2	3
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	201	175.0	-26.0	2	85%	34	32	3	2
4	University of Washington Huskies	219	276.5	+57.5	5	30%	82	94	5	6
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	267	262.3	-4.7	4	65%	46	52	7	5
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	276	296.2	+20.2	6	69%	43	63	4	4
7	Western Washington University Vikings	396	312.7	-83.3	7	87%	28	1	6	7
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	429	418.1	-10.9	9	41%	76	22	9	9
8	University of Southern California Trojans	429	399.5	-29.5	8	64%	57	15	8	8

SAISA Fall Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 24.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 57.5 · winner's chance 97% · this far off in 50% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	57	53.3	-3.7	1	97%	51	62	2	1
2	Eckerd College Tritons	96	121.9	+25.9	3	17%	91	95	8	4
3	University of South Florida Bulls	99	127.0	+28.0	5	30%	79	96	5	5
4	University of Miami Hurricanes	103	122.8	+19.8	4	54%	56	90	3	3
5	Jacksonville University Fins	121	102.3	-18.7	2	95%	8	31	1	2
6	Florida State University Seminoles	146	147.3	+1.3	6	56%	52	60	10	6
7	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	149	158.4	+9.4	7	58%	51	73	7	7
8	Clemson University Tigers	156	163.7	+7.7	8	76%	35	69	4	8
9	Rollins College Tars	157	180.3	+23.3	9	76%	38	83	9	9
10	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	237	252.3	+15.3	12	13%	92	72	18	12
11	Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	255	246.5	-8.5	11	42%	67	37	6	11
12	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	256	220.4	-35.6	10	90%	16	8	11	10
13	University of Florida Gators	285	347.0	+62.0	17	6%	95	88	16	17
14	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	288	271.0	-17.0	13	62%	45	24	14	15
15	The Citadel Bulldogs	301	276.6	-24.4	15	76%	34	9	13	13
16	University of South Carolina Gamecocks	303	274.7	-28.3	14	93%	17	8	15	14
17	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	332	277.4	-54.6	16	99%	5	0	12	16
18	University of Georgia Bulldogs	396	347.0	-49.0	17	>99%	23	0	16	17

SEISA Fall Open Fleet Race Champs ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 28.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 46.0 · winner's chance 69% · this far off in 50% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	51	91.2	+40.2	1	69%	66	100	1	1
2	Rice University Owls	117	131.3	+14.3	3	44%	72	83	3	3
3	Texas A&M University Aggies	142	127.1	-14.9	2	82%	34	39	2	2
4	University of Texas Longhorns	191	226.8	+35.8	5	12%	93	85	6	5
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	226	162.8	-63.2	4	97%	9	3	4	4
6	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	249	242.4	-6.6	6	83%	40	27	7	6
7	University of Kansas Jayhawks	305	278.4	-26.6	7	>99%	36	3	5	7

The Victorian Urn Trophy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 15.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.8 · winner's chance 34% · this far off in 97% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	107	121.2	+14.2	1	34%	83	85	1	1
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	109	128.1	+19.1	2	46%	66	89	3	2
3	Harvard University Crimson	123	142.3	+19.3	4	39%	68	86	5	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	134	137.4	+3.4	3	64%	43	65	2	3
5	Tufts University Jumbos	143	167.7	+24.7	7	38%	67	80	4	7
6	Boston College Eagles	163	180.0	+17.0	8	32%	74	78	11	8
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	173	155.9	-17.1	6	80%	26	29	7	6
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	184	151.8	-32.2	5	92%	12	13	6	5
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	192	199.5	+7.5	9	55%	54	61	8	9
10	Northeastern University Huskies	206	218.6	+12.6	11	46%	63	65	9	11
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	211	208.2	-2.8	10	80%	29	41	10	10
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	249	244.7	-4.3	13	53%	57	38	12	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	264	243.3	-20.7	12	78%	33	19	13	12
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	289	264.9	-24.1	14	95%	27	7	14	14
15	Boston University Terriers	333	316.2	-16.8	15	>99%	44	6	15	15

War Memorial ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.6 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 13% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	60	93.2	+33.2	5	7%	97	98	10	5
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	76	76.9	+0.9	2	47%	67	67	1	2
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	79	90.6	+11.6	4	40%	68	81	6	4
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	81	64.2	-16.8	1	95%	8	27	2	1
5	Fordham University Rams	95	120.0	+25.0	7	28%	78	91	15	7
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	117	85.2	-31.8	3	92%	12	11	5	3
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	138	115.6	-22.4	6	73%	35	18	13	6
8	Cornell University Big Red	150	149.7	-0.3	9	31%	75	51	9	9
9	Queen's University Gaels	160	228.8	+68.8	17	1%	99	98	14	17
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	162	130.4	-31.6	8	90%	14	7	11	8
11	Penn State University Nittany Lions	163	176.7	+13.7	11	38%	69	71	4	11
12	Virginia Tech Hokies	169	188.2	+19.2	14	37%	68	72	3	12
13	Webb Institute Clippers	170	181.2	+11.2	13	58%	49	66	7	13
14	Christopher Newport University Captains	181	165.8	-15.2	10	89%	15	22	17	10
15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	193	189.6	-3.4	15	78%	30	37	12	15
16	Princeton University Tigers	201	196.6	-4.4	16	82%	27	38	8	16
17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	208	177.9	-30.1	12	100%	2	6	18	14
18	Columbia University Lions	280	252.6	-27.4	18	>99%	33	1	16	18

MASSA 2025 Fall Fleet Championship ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 17.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 26.6 · winner's chance 61% · this far off in 36% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	38	50.2	+12.2	1	61%	69	93	1	1
2	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	68	74.1	+6.1	3	29%	81	80	3	3
3	Southern Regional High School Rams	70	90.9	+20.9	4	28%	82	94	4	4
4	Christchurch School Seahorses	87	57.7	-29.3	2	98%	5	10	2	2
5	The Stony Brook School Bears	115	124.4	+9.4	6	33%	77	72	8	7
6	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	120	130.2	+10.2	7	46%	66	73	7	6
7	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	121	114.6	-6.4	5	89%	18	45	5	5
8	Key School Zags	147	178.9	+31.9	11	15%	89	89	10	12
9	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	169	196.9	+27.9	14	12%	91	81	12	15
10	Leonardtown High School Raiders	171	170.9	-0.1	10	50%	56	48	6	9
11	West Irondequoit Eagles	172	169.9	-2.1	9	62%	44	46	13	10
12	Ridge High School Red Devils	179	212.7	+33.7	17	13%	90	90	18	18
13	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	180	168.5	-11.5	8	84%	20	28	11	8
14	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	193	197.6	+4.6	15	53%	52	51	9	14
15	Henderson High School Warriors	206	184.5	-21.5	13	82%	23	14	14	13
16	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	218	179.9	-38.1	12	90%	14	7	16	11
17	Nardin Academy Gators	219	213.9	-5.1	18	73%	36	32	17	17
18	Seton Hall Preparatory School Pirates	245	202.2	-42.8	16	>99%	6	1	15	16

MISSA Great Lakes Championship ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 31.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.0 · winner's chance 36% · this far off in 25% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	60	86.2	+26.2	2	36%	82	97	3	2
2	New Trier HS Trevian	92	132.4	+40.4	5	8%	95	97	11	6
3	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	94	80.9	-13.1	1	88%	19	44	2	1
4	Lake Forest High School Scouts	97	111.6	+14.6	3	59%	48	78	5	5
5	Blake School Bears	133	212.1	+79.1	14	3%	98	99	7	12
6	Grand Haven High School GH Blue	150	136.4	-13.6	6	61%	45	43	1	3
6	Minnetonka High School Skippers	150	172.4	+22.4	8	23%	82	82	12	8
8	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	154	217.7	+63.7	15	10%	93	98	13	15
9	Rocky River High School Varsity	158	126.2	-31.8	4	96%	6	17	4	4
10	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	167	209.9	+42.9	12	32%	72	87	10	14
11	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	189	172.0	-17.0	7	78%	26	30	6	7
12	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	203	181.0	-22.0	9	76%	28	24	14	10
13	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	219	244.9	+25.9	18	17%	86	75	19	18
14	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	220	211.9	-8.1	13	64%	41	34	18	13
15	Wayzata High School Navy	232	194.2	-37.8	10	84%	20	14	16	11
16	Latin School of Chicago Romans	236	229.1	-6.9	17	66%	40	34	9	16
17	Pewaukee High School Pirates	258	226.5	-31.5	16	79%	27	12	15	17
18	Spring Lake High School Red	268	196.8	-71.2	11	97%	5	1	8	9
19	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	309	276.1	-32.9	19	67%	44	9	17	19
20	Upper Arlington UA Bears	315	284.9	-30.1	20	>99%	23	5	20	20

NWISA Fall Championships ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 38.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 51.6 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 12% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Olympia High School Bears	73	150.0	+77.0	4	4%	98	100	6	4
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	95	91.4	-3.6	1	85%	23	67	1	1
3	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	114	131.3	+17.3	2	55%	55	87	4	2
4	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	132	152.0	+20.0	5	45%	62	84	2	5
5	Gig Harbor High School Tides	138	184.1	+46.1	7	27%	77	95	7	7
6	Ballard High School Beavers	153	139.3	-13.7	3	90%	15	45	3	3
7	Anacortes High School Seahawks	228	242.4	+14.4	10	13%	90	64	10	10
8	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	230	229.6	-0.4	9	26%	79	52	14	9
8	Ingraham High School Rams	230	259.9	+29.9	11	23%	81	66	11	12
10	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	232	284.6	+52.6	15	18%	85	85	16	15
11	Lakeside School Lions	239	163.3	-75.7	6	97%	4	4	5	6
12	Sehome High School Mariners	258	276.9	+18.9	13	39%	67	63	15	17
13	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	263	213.6	-49.4	8	94%	8	7	8	8
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	282	280.9	-1.1	14	58%	48	41	18	14
15	Capital High School Cougars	303	344.4	+41.4	18	19%	84	73	17	18
16	Orcas High School Vikings	349	270.1	-78.9	12	87%	18	2	9	11
17	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	354	286.5	-67.5	16	93%	13	1	13	13
18	Columbia High School - WA Bruins	388	296.8	-91.2	17	>99%	8	0	12	16

SEISA Fall Women's Fleet Race Champs ICSA · 10/26/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 14.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.7 · winner's chance 85% · this far off in 80% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	28	42.2	+14.2	1	85%	58	99	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	62	77.5	+15.5	2	48%	72	83	2	2
3	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	98	86.8	-11.2	4	56%	62	13	4	3
4	University of Texas Longhorns	100	81.5	-18.5	3	>99%	16	7	3	4

MCSA Fall Championship ICSA · 11/01/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 29.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.9 · winner's chance 15% · this far off in 2% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	58	94.7	+36.7	3	15%	92	100	2	1
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	74	80.0	+6.0	1	62%	48	78	4	2
3	Northwestern University Wildcats 2	85	182.9	+97.9	10	<1%	100	100	10	10
4	Northwestern University Wildcats 1	91	93.5	+2.5	2	67%	41	65	7	5
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers	93	96.7	+3.7	5	78%	30	66	6	6
6	Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One	124	96.4	-27.6	4	90%	16	7	1	3
7	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	138	114.5	-23.5	7	90%	25	13	5	7
8	Marquette University Golden Eagles	165	162.1	-2.9	8	51%	69	33	9	8
9	Ohio State University Buckeyes	184	107.3	-76.7	6	>99%	0	0	3	4
10	University of Chicago Maroons	192	172.0	-20.0	9	>99%	14	6	8	9

2025 PCISA Anteater Gold ISSA · 11/08/2025 · 34 teams · site model off 40.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 74.4 · winner's chance 37% · this far off in 75% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	93	110.8	+17.8	1	37%	81	91	1	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	99	133.2	+34.2	3	39%	71	95	3	2
3	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	117	154.3	+37.3	4	34%	72	91	5	4
4	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	139	185.2	+46.2	7	26%	80	93	10	7
5	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	156	131.0	-25.0	2	72%	33	50	2	3
6	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	182	162.6	-19.4	5	77%	30	48	8	5
7	San Marcos High School Royals 1	235	165.7	-69.3	6	83%	23	14	11	6
8	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	256	293.6	+37.6	11	10%	92	86	22	11
9	Redwood Giants	277	276.9	-0.1	10	33%	71	58	4	10
10	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	279	247.7	-31.3	9	62%	43	38	7	8
11	Brentwood	312	456.4	+144.4	26	3%	98	96	16	25
12	Crossroads Varsity	320	302.3	-17.7	12	48%	57	44	31	12
13	Dos Pueblos Chargers 1	334	245.2	-88.8	8	83%	20	12	12	9
14	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	343	422.0	+79.0	24	6%	95	91	27	24
15	San Marcos High School Royals 2	348	329.5	-18.5	14	53%	50	43	23	14
16	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	351	373.8	+22.8	17	33%	70	68	32	20
17	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	364	390.7	+26.7	20	31%	72	67	29	19
18	Mira Costa High School Mustangs 2	372	369.8	-2.2	16	52%	51	48	20	21
19	Parker Parker 1	376	377.3	+1.3	18	53%	50	49	13	18
20	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	388	434.5	+46.5	25	30%	72	71	6	23
21	Mira Costa High School Mustangs 1	389	346.4	-42.6	15	75%	27	28	14	15
22	Santa Barbara High School Dons	396	513.7	+117.7	34	15%	87	89	26	34
23	Alameda High School Hornets	407	400.2	-6.8	22	67%	36	38	17	17
24	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	410	321.2	-88.8	13	97%	4	5	18	13
25	Parker Parker 2	416	392.2	-23.8	21	77%	25	33	28	22
26	San Pedro High School Pirates	457	458.4	+1.4	27	44%	60	44	15	28
27	Carlmont The Scots	461	478.8	+17.8	29	43%	60	51	19	27
28	Junipero Serra High School JSerra	471	385.2	-85.8	19	89%	13	8	9	16
29	SF University High School Red Devils	478	488.0	+10.0	32	50%	54	45	24	32
30	Coronado Islanders Islanders	500	473.3	-26.7	28	70%	34	19	25	30
30	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	500	484.8	-15.2	31	58%	45	30	30	31
32	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	509	481.5	-27.5	30	82%	23	19	21	29
33	Dos Pueblos Chargers 2	521	412.6	-108.4	23	97%	4	4	34	26
34	Design Tech High School Dragons	528	497.0	-31.0	33	>99%	9	21	33	33

2025 PCISA Anteater SILVER ISSA · 11/08/2025 · 30 teams · site model off 43.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 65.4 · winner's chance 16% · this far off in 87% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	La Jolla High School Vikings	139	173.6	+34.6	3	16%	92	89	14	3
2	The Urban School Blues	175	224.4	+49.4	6	6%	96	93	9	6
3	Bishop's School Knights	200	233.1	+33.1	8	9%	93	85	11	9
4	Stevenson School Pirates 1	201	168.9	-32.1	2	62%	44	37	2	2
5	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	202	195.1	-6.9	4	48%	57	62	6	4
6	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	204	215.6	+11.6	5	45%	59	72	7	5
7	St. Joseph High School (CA) Jesters	210	269.6	+59.6	10	30%	73	81	10	11
8	Redwood Giants	217	283.6	+66.6	12	24%	78	87	4	12
9	Stevenson School Pirates 2	219	250.0	+31.0	9	44%	60	79	5	8
10	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	224	141.5	-82.5	1	98%	3	10	1	1
11	Blue and Gold Varsity	245	275.9	+30.9	11	46%	57	68	8	10
12	Falcons	261	352.7	+91.7	21	26%	75	81	18	21
13	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	276	316.8	+40.8	14	34%	69	74	28	18
14	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	285	330.0	+45.0	17	30%	73	79	25	17
15	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	296	357.5	+61.5	22	22%	80	83	21	22
16	Coastal Academy High School Stingrays	300	323.2	+23.2	15	48%	54	61	13	14
17	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	302	287.4	-14.6	13	67%	35	44	17	13
18	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	311	370.8	+59.8	25	27%	76	86	26	27
19	The College Preparatory School The College Preparat	325	225.8	-99.2	7	92%	9	12	3	7
20	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	350	325.4	-24.6	16	65%	37	34	24	15
21	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	351	344.4	-6.6	18	65%	38	39	15	19
22	Design Tech High School Dragons	385	359.6	-25.4	23	60%	43	30	19	23
23	Monterey High School Toreadores	389	376.8	-12.2	26	59%	43	32	20	24
24	San Dieguito High School Academy Mustangs	390	346.8	-43.2	19	73%	30	25	16	20
25	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	417	404.9	-12.1	28	55%	49	29	29	29
26	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	420	396.5	-23.5	27	72%	33	21	27	28
27	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	423	407.2	-15.8	29	72%	32	26	22	26
28	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	450	365.3	-84.7	24	90%	13	6	23	25
29	Marin Catholic Wildcats	501	480.6	-20.4	30	53%	57	16	30	30
30	Del Norte High School Night Hawks	514	349.8	-164.2	20	>99%	2	1	12	16

Fall Pacific Coast Championship ICSA · 11/15/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 17.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.4 · winner's chance 76% · this far off in 31% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	22	41.6	+19.6	1	76%	62	99	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	49	89.0	+40.0	5	10%	94	99	6	5
3	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	69	79.2	+10.2	4	38%	72	78	8	4
4	San Diego State University Aztecs	72	70.2	-1.8	2	72%	36	57	3	2
5	University of Southern California Trojans	86	71.1	-14.9	3	81%	25	28	2	3
6	Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros	93	103.4	+10.4	7	38%	67	70	4	9
7	Western Washington University Vikings	94	125.6	+31.6	12	14%	89	95	7	10
8	University of Hawaii Rainbows 1	95	110.7	+15.7	8	48%	57	77	12	7
9	University of Washington Huskies	106	112.7	+6.7	9	52%	54	67	10	8
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	117	124.7	+7.7	11	42%	63	67	9	11
11	University of California at Berkeley Bears	124	130.4	+6.4	14	46%	60	62	16	14
12	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	126	100.9	-25.1	6	93%	9	13	5	6
13	University of Hawaii Rainbows 2	128	112.8	-15.2	10	88%	16	29	11	12
14	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	157	169.0	+12.0	15	23%	82	66	14	15
15	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	186	192.2	+6.2	18	12%	91	54	17	18
16	University of California at Davis Aggies	191	188.2	-2.8	17	22%	85	36	20	19
17	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	197	198.0	+1.0	19	33%	74	42	15	17
18	Santa Clara University Broncos	198	201.5	+3.5	20	40%	68	47	19	20
19	University of California at San Diego Tritons	205	127.5	-77.5	13	>99%	0	0	13	13
20	Arizona State University Sun Devils	214	171.1	-42.9	16	>99%	1	0	18	16

Spring 2026

SEISA Girls Champs ISSA · 03/21/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 13.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.4 · winner's chance 29% · this far off in 79% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1	16	34.3	+18.3	2	29%	85	100	2	2
2	London High School Pirates 1	28	45.6	+17.6	3	28%	79	91	6	4
3	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2	29	31.8	+2.8	1	79%	29	74	1	1
4	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 3	32	46.8	+14.8	4	55%	54	93	3	5
5	London High School Pirates 2	51	66.1	+15.1	9	17%	88	89	10	10
6	The Willow School Willow Lions	57	50.1	-6.9	5	66%	39	36	4	3
7	Ursuline Academy Lions 1	72	60.1	-11.9	7	65%	44	13	9	9
8	Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1	80	57.8	-22.2	6	74%	31	6	7	6
9	Ursuline Academy Lions 2	81	65.4	-15.6	8	90%	19	2	8	7
10	Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2	87	73.1	-13.9	10	>99%	18	9	5	8

MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 03/28/2026 · 15 teams · site model off 16.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 49.4 · winner's chance 49% · this far off in 82% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	98	90.8	-7.2	2	49%	75	57	2	2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	101	89.3	-11.7	1	97%	25	47	1	1
3	Old Dominion University Monarchs	143	161.5	+18.5	3	33%	82	85	4	3
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	155	169.9	+14.9	4	41%	69	80	3	4
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	171	178.4	+7.4	5	46%	62	67	10	6
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	172	191.5	+19.5	7	40%	67	83	6	7
7	Columbia University Lions	175	204.7	+29.7	10	36%	70	89	5	10
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	183	192.3	+9.3	8	69%	39	70	8	9
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	193.8	193.7	-0.1	9	84%	24	53	7	8
10	Fordham University Rams	197.2	180.7	-16.5	6	99%	6	33	9	5
11	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	316	290.7	-25.3	11	72%	61	14	13	11
12	Princeton University Tigers	346	327.6	-18.4	12	60%	63	11	15	12
13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	366	352.7	-13.3	13	54%	59	21	14	14
14	SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	391	382.2	-8.8	15	38%	74	16	12	15
15	University of Maryland Terps	397	354.1	-42.9	14	>99%	8	0	11	13

NWISA Ranking Regatta #2 (Last Chance Qualifier) ISSA · 03/28/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 28.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.1 · winner's chance 89% · this far off in 77% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Bainbridge High School Spartans	42	61.8	+19.8	1	89%	55	100	1	1
2	Olympia High School Bears	109	144.3	+35.3	4	12%	93	92	5	5
3	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	126	105.3	-20.7	2	75%	37	40	2	2
4	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	130	141.1	+11.1	3	45%	64	79	4	3
5	Capital High School Cougars	140	184.4	+44.4	9	19%	84	92	10	9
6	Gig Harbor High School Tides	150	177.3	+27.3	7	36%	68	78	7	6
7	Sehome High School Mariners	154	212.5	+58.5	11	17%	86	94	14	12
8	Ballard High School Beavers	159	147.6	-11.4	5	84%	19	43	3	4
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	179	176.6	-2.4	6	66%	40	50	6	7
10	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	203	206.7	+3.7	10	39%	66	53	18	10
11	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	211	228.0	+17.0	13	29%	75	66	13	14
12	Newport High School (WA) Newport (WA)	213	237.7	+24.7	17	40%	63	61	9	11
13	Lakeside School Lions	214	177.9	-36.1	8	86%	17	19	8	8
14	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	237	222.6	-14.4	12	66%	41	26	15	13
15	Orcas High School Vikings	257	235.5	-21.5	16	62%	42	24	12	16
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	266	234.3	-31.7	15	78%	28	12	16	17
17	Ingraham High School Rams	271	241.8	-29.2	18	82%	24	18	11	15
18	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	330	231.8	-98.2	14	>99%	7	0	17	18

Silver Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/28/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 26.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 26.7 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 95% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cardinals 2	39	119.0	+80.0	7	4%	98	100	6	7
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	41	60.0	+19.0	2	44%	65	96	1	1
3	Spring Street International School Green	79	58.5	-20.5	1	64%	44	35	5	2
4	Eagles	94	119.0	+25.0	7	18%	84	74	6	7
5	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	96	107.4	+11.4	5	22%	82	72	3	6
6	Techsters 1	98	119.0	+21.0	7	28%	74	71	6	7
7	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	100	109.8	+9.8	6	44%	59	58	2	3
8	Cardinals 1	102	119.0	+17.0	7	39%	64	68	6	7
9	Friday Harbor High School Wolverines	103	106.7	+3.7	3	57%	47	57	4	5
10	Cardinals 3	106	119.0	+13.0	7	50%	53	64	6	7
11	Bruins	107	119.0	+12.0	7	57%	47	62	6	7
12	Capital High School Cougars	122	106.9	-15.1	4	77%	27	31	15	4
13	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	131	128.2	-2.8	17	62%	42	44	17	17
14	Squalicum High School Storm	136	160.3	+24.3	18	39%	65	69	18	18
15	Peninsula High School Seahawks	150	124.8	-25.2	16	79%	24	19	16	16
16	Techsters 2	156	119.0	-37.0	7	88%	15	12	6	7
17	Cubs 1	182	119.0	-63.0	7	94%	10	2	6	7
18	Cubs 2	200	119.0	-81.0	7	>99%	3	0	6	7

MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/03/2026 · 2 teams · site model off 4.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 5.4 · winner's chance 70% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Michigan Wolverines	18	22.9	+4.9	1	70%	65	99	1	1
2	Northwestern University Wildcats	30	25.1	-4.9	2	>99%	28	1	2	2

Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 15.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.7 · winner's chance 79% · this far off in 55% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	49	57.1	+8.1	1	79%	60	92	1	1
2	Western Washington University Vikings	74	100.3	+26.3	4	12%	93	96	5	4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	88	81.1	-6.9	3	77%	40	44	2	3
4	University of Washington Huskies	90	135.6	+45.6	8	6%	97	100	7	8
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	109	80.6	-28.4	2	97%	6	6	4	2
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	113	110.8	-2.2	5	80%	29	49	3	5
7	University of California at Berkeley Bears	134	130.9	-3.1	7	62%	48	42	9	6
8	University of Southern California Trojans	152	129.3	-22.7	6	82%	27	10	6	7
9	University of California at San Diego Tritons	154	150.8	-3.2	9	69%	43	39	8	9
10	San Diego State University Aztecs	158	166.4	+8.4	10	72%	45	61	10	10
11	University of Victoria Vikes	188	181.7	-6.3	11	87%	36	27	11	11
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	234	212.4	-21.6	12	>99%	41	0	12	12

MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 11 teams · site model off 20.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.6 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 11% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	55	69.6	+14.6	1	41%	80	96	9	3
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	62	77.1	+15.1	3	48%	65	97	4	4
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	76	76.3	+0.3	2	71%	41	72	3	2
4	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	83	78.9	-4.1	4	96%	18	55	1	1
5	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	115	134.0	+19.0	6	37%	79	86	5	6
6	Purdue University Boilermakers	134	174.7	+40.7	9	15%	89	91	7	9
7	University of Minnesota Gophers	158	159.5	+1.5	8	42%	69	50	6	8
8	University of Chicago Maroons	162	158.2	-3.8	7	71%	41	35	8	7
9	Marquette University Golden Eagles	191	205.8	+14.8	11	14%	91	68	11	11
10	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	200	132.2	-67.8	5	>99%	1	0	2	5
11	Washington University Bears	229	185.6	-43.4	10	>99%	11	1	10	10

SAISA Women's Champs: Ann Boyd Trophy ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 19.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.2 · winner's chance 93% · this far off in 74% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	33	49.8	+16.8	1	93%	53	100	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	60	78.7	+18.7	2	68%	63	97	3	2
3	Rollins College Tars	68	96.6	+28.6	3	56%	63	99	2	3
4	Jacksonville University Fins	95	99.3	+4.3	4	84%	34	73	4	4
5	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	150	126.4	-23.6	5	71%	54	14	6	5
6	University of Florida Gators	159	174.3	+15.3	7	29%	81	68	8	7
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	170	182.2	+12.2	8	38%	74	73	10	9
8	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	194	154.9	-39.1	6	90%	16	8	5	6
9	Florida State University Seminoles	198	211.4	+13.4	10	39%	73	74	12	11
10	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	216	220.7	+4.7	11	56%	58	46	11	10
11	Duke University Blue Devils	238	202.9	-35.1	9	98%	11	4	7	8
12	University of Tennessee Volunteers	283	262.7	-20.3	12	>99%	43	0	9	12

MISSA NE Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 7 teams · site model off 13.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 22.2 · winner's chance 76% · this far off in 95% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	47	55.5	+8.5	1	76%	62	95	1	1
2	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	60	69.2	+9.2	2	75%	52	91	2	2
3	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	88	98.0	+10.0	4	37%	76	74	5	4
4	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	97	94.2	-2.8	3	75%	40	42	3	3
5	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	106	108.4	+2.4	5	58%	56	57	7	5
6	Troy High School Troy	113	121.1	+8.1	7	63%	54	62	6	7
7	Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	171	118.4	-52.6	6	>99%	19	0	4	6

MISSA NW Mallory Prequalifier @ Sheboygan ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 14.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.1 · winner's chance 1% · this far off in 19% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Blake School Bears	39	84.7	+45.7	6	1%	100	100	3	6
2	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	41	41.4	+0.4	1	95%	13	71	2	1
3	Minnetonka High School Skippers	63	68.5	+5.5	3	50%	65	77	5	3
4	Wayzata High School Navy	64	83.0	+19.0	5	34%	74	92	7	5
5	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	69	72.1	+3.1	4	83%	27	68	4	4
6	Madison West Varsity	85	57.3	-27.7	2	99%	3	5	1	2
7	Pewaukee High School Pirates	114	107.6	-6.4	8	46%	64	28	6	8
8	Benilde St Margarets Red	116	104.4	-11.6	7	83%	31	14	9	7
9	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	140	134.2	-5.8	10	44%	69	22	10	10
10	Homestead High School (WI) Homestead (WI)	149	126.7	-22.3	9	>99%	16	3	8	9

MISSA SE Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 2 teams · site model off 1.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 1.6 · winner's chance 95% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Varsity	6	7.1	+1.1	1	95%	53	87	1	1
2	Culver Academies Eagles	12	10.9	-1.1	2	>99%	40	13	2	2

SAISA Doublehanded Championship/Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 16 teams · site model off 14.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 37.4 · winner's chance 14% · this far off in 86% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	81	100.5	+19.5	4	14%	93	85	6	3
2	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	82	79.8	-2.2	1	60%	51	59	1	1
3	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	90	102.5	+12.5	5	32%	75	83	5	4
4	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	93	108.1	+15.1	6	40%	67	83	9	6
4	MAST Academy Makos	93	91.9	-1.1	2	72%	36	58	2	2
6	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	100	140.6	+40.6	9	24%	80	94	10	10
7	Greene School Dolphins	103	99.7	-3.3	3	81%	24	55	4	5
8	Antilles School Hurricanes One	144	115.7	-28.3	7	83%	24	16	8	7
9	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	151	125.9	-25.1	8	94%	14	14	7	8
10	John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	171	171.8	+0.8	10	66%	50	46	3	9
11	Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	192	198.0	+6.0	11	50%	63	52	11	11
12	Wando High School Warriors	199	213.5	+14.5	12	38%	70	67	16	12
13	Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	214	219.4	+5.4	14	46%	62	48	14	15
14	Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	220	219.7	-0.3	15	63%	45	37	12	14
15	James Island Charter High School Varsity	240	228.7	-11.3	16	69%	42	13	15	16
16	New Bern High School Bears	259	216.3	-42.7	13	>99%	7	0	13	13

America Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 24.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 71.1 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 80% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	112	159.1	+47.1	4	10%	95	98	6	3
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	125	120.2	-4.8	1	78%	34	61	2	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	138	137.2	-0.8	2	77%	33	65	1	2
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	146	179.0	+33.0	5	50%	62	94	7	5
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	180	157.7	-22.3	3	90%	18	33	5	4
6	George Washington University Revolutionaries	189	250.7	+61.7	9	16%	89	98	14	9
7	Cornell University Big Red	212	231.2	+19.2	7	56%	55	77	8	7
8	Fordham University Rams	215	227.8	+12.8	6	76%	32	70	10	6
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	243	235.6	-7.4	8	85%	23	46	13	8
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	305	342.8	+37.8	15	7%	95	81	4	15
11	Christopher Newport University Captains	310	299.0	-11.0	11	52%	57	32	16	10
12	Princeton University Tigers	327	298.5	-28.5	10	66%	41	20	11	12
13	Columbia University Lions	338	334.6	-3.4	14	42%	64	39	9	13
14	Webb Institute Clippers	354	328.6	-25.4	13	66%	41	16	12	14
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	356	345.3	-10.7	16	60%	46	33	17	16
16	Penn State University Nittany Lions	358	313.0	-45.0	12	96%	7	6	3	11
17	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	379	361.5	-17.5	17	96%	18	16	15	17
18	William and Mary Tribe	480	430.4	-49.6	18	>99%	43	0	18	18

NEISA Open FR Champs - Coast Guard Alumni Bowl ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 15.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 32.3 · winner's chance 70% · this far off in 93% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	98	80.0	-18.0	1	70%	65	35	1	1
2	Brown University Bears	103	110.2	+7.2	2	46%	70	74	3	2
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	106	131.7	+25.7	5	32%	76	92	5	5
4	Yale University Bulldogs	136	124.2	-11.8	3	63%	46	42	2	3
5	Boston College Eagles	138	128.4	-9.6	4	76%	32	40	4	4
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	165	157.1	-7.9	7	48%	60	42	11	7
7	Connecticut College Camels	169	213.0	+44.0	12	7%	95	94	17	13
8	Tufts University Jumbos	178	156.4	-21.6	6	79%	28	24	6	6
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	180	177.6	-2.4	8	67%	40	48	8	8
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	190	189.1	-0.9	9	62%	44	50	16	9
11	Boston University Terriers	208	205.1	-2.9	10	58%	48	43	12	10
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	213	213.8	+0.8	13	61%	45	46	14	12
13	Dartmouth College Big Green	229	209.2	-19.8	11	77%	29	22	7	11
14	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	234	278.3	+44.3	17	12%	91	91	10	17
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	243	236.5	-6.5	15	80%	29	33	15	15
16	Northeastern University Huskies	256	232.2	-23.8	14	95%	9	12	9	14
17	Salve Regina University Seahawks	257	271.1	+14.1	16	88%	25	60	13	16
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	318	306.2	-11.8	18	>99%	34	16	18	18

NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 15 teams · site model off 19.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.5 · winner's chance 14% · this far off in 10% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	99	133.8	+34.8	3	14%	93	97	5	3
2	Brown University Bears	105	117.8	+12.8	1	64%	50	83	3	2
3	Harvard University Crimson	116	117.9	+1.9	2	79%	29	67	1	1
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	145	160.7	+15.7	5	32%	75	78	8	6
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	165	175.0	+10.0	9	28%	78	66	11	9
6	Northeastern University Huskies	183	215.5	+32.5	11	4%	97	89	9	11
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	185	193.9	+8.9	10	24%	80	64	7	10
7	Tufts University Jumbos	185	173.3	-11.7	8	54%	54	32	6	7
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	188	172.1	-15.9	7	78%	27	30	4	8
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	194	148.7	-45.3	4	98%	4	6	2	4
11	Boston College Eagles	212	164.6	-47.4	6	98%	4	4	10	5
12	University of Rhode Island Rams	248	258.3	+10.3	13	29%	80	57	14	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	255	227.5	-27.5	12	94%	14	11	12	12
14	Boston University Terriers	283	304.3	+21.3	15	33%	79	71	15	15
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	287	286.6	-0.4	14	>99%	13	34	13	14

PCCSC Mark Healy Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 17 teams · site model off 28.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.4 · winner's chance 65% · this far off in 26% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	94	100.2	+6.2	1	65%	68	80	1	1
2	San Diego State University Aztecs	108	126.0	+18.0	2	55%	63	90	3	2
3	University of Southern California Trojans	136	179.4	+43.4	6	11%	93	97	8	6
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	181.4	140.7	-40.7	3	76%	34	14	5	3
5	Western Washington University Vikings	195	171.5	-23.5	5	55%	54	35	2	5
6	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	196.3	198.2	+1.9	7	50%	61	57	4	7
7	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	247	254.0	+7.0	8	16%	89	60	9	9
8	University of Washington Huskies	258	262.5	+4.5	10	28%	81	55	11	10
9	University of Hawaii Rainbows	263.5	153.0	-110.5	4	>99%	0	0	6	4
10	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	267	304.5	+37.5	11	31%	75	78	10	11
11	University of California at San Diego Tritons	269	317.7	+48.7	13	30%	79	92	12	13
12	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	292	262.3	-29.7	9	91%	13	20	7	8
13	Arizona State University Sun Devils	300	322.2	+22.2	14	65%	46	71	13	14
14	University of California at Berkeley Bears	330	314.3	-15.7	12	86%	21	28	16	12
15	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	359	413.2	+54.2	17	16%	88	88	14	17
16	University of Oregon Ducks	388	369.9	-18.1	15	90%	23	13	15	15
17	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	399	394.2	-4.8	16	>99%	13	24	17	16

SAISA Coed Champs: Richard Tillman Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 18.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 45.0 · winner's chance 86% · this far off in 84% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	74	69.0	-5.0	1	86%	57	61	2	1
2	Jacksonville University Fins	86	102.4	+16.4	2	62%	64	94	1	2
3	University of Miami Hurricanes	119	124.0	+5.0	3	47%	67	71	3	3
4	Florida State University Seminoles	122	154.9	+32.9	6	22%	84	95	9	6
5	Eckerd College Tritons	151	130.0	-21.0	4	78%	30	27	10	4
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	157	142.8	-14.2	5	77%	32	37	7	5
7	Clemson University Tigers	169	188.8	+19.8	9	29%	78	82	6	9
8	University of South Florida Bulls	196	163.9	-32.1	7	86%	23	13	5	7
9	Rollins College Tars	197	184.2	-12.8	8	86%	27	36	8	8
10	Auburn University Tigers	198	236.3	+38.3	10	47%	69	95	4	10
11	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	240	241.9	+1.9	11	68%	45	52	11	11
12	University of Central Florida Knights	274	257.8	-16.2	12	85%	34	26	12	12
13	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	305	342.8	+37.8	15	15%	91	88	14	15
14	Gamecocks	330	343.2	+13.2	16	44%	64	54	13	16
15	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	335	331.4	-3.6	14	76%	36	33	16	14
16	Duke University Blue Devils	350	323.0	-27.0	13	89%	17	15	15	13
17	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	390	359.0	-31.0	17	88%	28	2	18	17
18	Davidson College Wildcats	395	390.4	-4.6	18	>99%	33	22	17	18

SEISA Open Fleet Race Conference Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 8 teams · site model off 23.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.7 · winner's chance 99% · this far off in 60% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	25	37.3	+12.3	1	99%	51	100	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	89	102.8	+13.8	2	49%	75	81	2	2
3	Louisiana Tech University Bulldogs	96	145.5	+49.5	5	23%	84	96	4	5
4	Rice University Owls	129	132.1	+3.1	4	59%	55	58	5	4
5	University of Texas Longhorns	132	147.9	+15.9	6	58%	54	73	7	6
6	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	158	118.0	-40.0	3	96%	9	9	3	3
7	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	227	177.9	-49.1	7	94%	32	0	6	7
8	University of Kansas Jayhawks	232	226.6	-5.4	8	>99%	46	18	8	8

SEISA Women’s Fleet Race Conference Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 3 teams · site model off 3.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 5.6 · winner's chance 97% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	9	12.5	+3.5	1	97%	51	96	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	21	23.1	+2.1	2	73%	62	73	2	2
3	University of Texas Longhorns	33	27.4	-5.6	3	>99%	34	2	3	3

2026 Silver PCC's ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 28 teams · site model off 46.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 64.7 · winner's chance 8% · this far off in 81% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	60	219.3	+159.3	6	8%	96	100	11	4
2	Redwood Giants 1	75	138.9	+63.9	2	54%	58	99	2	2
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	125	157.8	+32.8	3	55%	54	87	4	3
4	Stevenson School Pirates 1	155	133.9	-21.1	1	87%	18	46	1	1
5	Stevenson School Pirates 2	195	216.8	+21.8	5	26%	78	79	3	5
6	The Urban School Blues	197	248.0	+51.0	11	23%	80	86	12	10
7	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	209	270.7	+61.7	15	19%	83	87	20	15
8	Monterey High School Toreadores	219	331.2	+112.2	19	10%	92	94	18	19
9	Bishop's School Knights	229	213.1	-15.9	4	62%	41	47	14	7
10	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	244	227.6	-16.4	8	62%	42	42	10	8
11	Blue and Gold Varsity	245	221.2	-23.8	7	70%	33	38	8	6
12	Carmel High School Padres	260	272.1	+12.1	16	43%	59	59	17	16
13	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	265	267.4	+2.4	14	53%	50	52	21	13
14	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	272	238.3	-33.7	9	80%	23	26	13	9
15	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	286	255.3	-30.7	12	72%	32	30	9	12
16	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	297	242.5	-54.5	10	80%	23	20	7	11
17	Parker	305	348.1	+43.1	21	31%	71	69	5	18
18	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	307	265.0	-42.0	13	84%	19	21	6	14
19	Saint Mary's (Berkeley, CA) Varsity	314	337.8	+23.8	20	47%	56	60	15	21
20	Marin Catholic Wildcats	341	378.3	+37.3	24	29%	74	68	27	23
21	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	363	353.1	-9.9	22	56%	50	28	24	22
22	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	399	377.7	-21.3	23	42%	63	22	25	24
23	Design Tech High School Dragons	404	407.4	+3.4	27	37%	68	37	22	26
24	Palo Alto High Vikings	416	434.1	+18.1	28	28%	75	47	26	28
25	Alameda High School Hornets	418	322.7	-95.3	18	92%	11	2	19	20
26	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	451	395.4	-55.6	25	78%	29	6	23	25
27	Redwood Giants 2	454	273.4	-180.6	17	>99%	1	0	16	17
28	South High School Spartans	474	406.0	-68.0	26	>99%	9	5	28	27

MDISA Fleet Qualifier Spring 2026 ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 18.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.7 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 72% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	51	37.6	-13.4	1	>99%	50	23	1	1
2	Key School Zags	86	94.6	+8.6	2	60%	70	80	3	2
3	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	104	125.4	+21.4	4	37%	76	91	5	4
4	Severna Park Falcons	110	136.6	+26.6	5	39%	68	85	6	6
5	Leonardtown High School Raiders	124	124.5	+0.5	3	76%	32	60	2	3
6	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	131	152.5	+21.5	7	46%	63	88	7	7
7	Gunston Herons	141	144.1	+3.1	6	74%	33	63	4	5
8	Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	162	186.4	+24.4	9	33%	73	80	8	9
9	Kent Island High School Buccaneers	196	164.2	-31.8	8	78%	29	11	9	8
10	Seahawks	213.9	242.7	+28.8	14	20%	84	66	12	13
11	Great Mills High School Hornets	218	217.5	-0.5	12	40%	69	38	11	12
12	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	229	196.9	-32.1	11	82%	25	10	10	10
13	Broadneck High School Bruins	239	236.1	-2.9	13	68%	47	30	14	14
14	The Tome School Titans	244	194.9	-49.1	10	>99%	1	0	13	11

MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 5.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.9 · winner's chance 40% · this far off in 99% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	New Trier HS Trevian	28	40.8	+12.8	2	40%	80	98	3	1
2	Lake Forest High School Scouts	41	39.6	-1.4	1	71%	43	62	2	2
3	Jones College Prep Eagles	57	45.0	-12.0	3	92%	27	21	1	3
4	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	64	72.1	+8.1	4	51%	69	79	7	4
5	Loyola Academy Ramblers	83	82.2	-0.8	5	42%	70	47	5	5
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	89	87.1	-1.9	7	50%	61	39	8	7
7	Whitney Young Dolphins	90	90.8	+0.8	8	59%	52	47	9	8
8	Latin School of Chicago Romans	95	87.0	-8.0	6	83%	25	25	4	6
9	Glenbrook South High School Titans	110	109.0	-1.0	10	55%	59	35	10	10
10	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	114	106.4	-7.6	9	>99%	17	18	6	9

NYISA-SE Ladder Rung Fleet Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 9 teams · site model off 14.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 25.0 · winner's chance 68% · this far off in 33% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Stony Brook School Bears	23	33.9	+10.9	1	68%	66	99	1	1
2	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	45	62.2	+17.2	3	18%	89	95	3	3
3	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	56	73.5	+17.5	4	28%	83	93	5	4
4	Rye High School Garnets One	57	41.4	-15.6	2	99%	4	25	2	2
5	St. John the Baptist Cougars	85	93.9	+8.9	6	34%	76	70	9	6
6	Mattituck High School Tuckers	87	83.5	-3.5	5	79%	31	41	4	5
7	Kellenberg Memorial High School Kellenberg Memorial	106	114.7	+8.7	9	35%	73	60	8	9
8	Pelham Memorial High School Pelicans	121	103.2	-17.8	7	82%	29	8	6	7
9	Stuyvesant High School Peglegs	144	113.7	-30.3	8	>99%	16	0	7	8

SEISA Fleet Racing Champs and Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 7 teams · site model off 9.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 8.8 · winner's chance 95% · this far off in 42% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays	22	19.0	-3.0	1	95%	53	48	1	1
2	Clear Falls High School Knights	28	55.1	+27.1	5	17%	91	99	4	5
3	The Willow School Willow Lions	39	45.1	+6.1	3	58%	58	80	2	3
4	Flour Bluff High School Hornets	47	39.4	-7.6	2	95%	11	18	3	2
5	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	64	51.0	-13.0	4	85%	27	3	5	4
6	Ursuline Academy Lions	67	63.7	-3.3	7	63%	54	21	7	7
7	Ben Franklin High School Falcons	69	62.7	-6.3	6	>99%	15	11	6	6

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Bristol, RI ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 5.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 8.7 · winner's chance 40% · this far off in 81% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. George's School Dragons	13	15.5	+2.5	1	40%	80	82	2	1
2	Greenwich High School Cardinals	14	16.6	+2.6	2	63%	50	78	4	2
3	Greenwich Academy Gators	20	19.2	-0.8	3	68%	44	58	1	3
4	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	22	22.7	+0.7	4	83%	32	61	3	4
5	Darien High School Blue Wave	34	42.1	+8.1	7	21%	86	83	7	7
6	North Kingstown High School Skippers	36	41.6	+5.6	5	46%	62	66	5	5
7	Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	42	44.7	+2.7	9	42%	65	60	10	10
8	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	43	51.6	+8.6	11	31%	75	80	12	11
9	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	44	44.1	+0.1	8	75%	33	49	9	6
10	The Prout School Crusaders	55	41.8	-13.2	6	90%	15	5	6	8
11	Bishop Stang High Spartans	56	51.6	-4.4	10	79%	30	23	11	12
12	Fairfield Warde High School Warde Sailing	66	52.7	-13.3	12	>99%	14	2	8	9

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 20.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 30.6 · winner's chance 23% · this far off in 83% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	31	64.4	+33.4	2	23%	88	99	2	2
2	Brunswick School Bruins	46	76.3	+30.3	3	31%	77	95	3	3
3	Staples High School Wreckers	56	50.7	-5.3	1	89%	18	58	1	1
4	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	67	79.9	+12.9	4	53%	56	86	11	5
5	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	73	88.6	+15.6	5	56%	51	78	5	4
6	Branford High School Hornets	106	129.1	+23.1	10	20%	84	77	9	10
7	Guilford High School Grizzlies	122	99.2	-22.8	6	66%	40	18	4	6
8	Wilton High School Warriors	130	113.9	-16.1	8	56%	50	23	7	7
9	Weston High School Trojans	133	139.0	+6.0	12	35%	71	48	12	12
10	The Williams School Blues	141	121.8	-19.2	9	82%	26	9	6	9
11	Salisbury School Knights	147	113.1	-33.9	7	93%	12	5	8	8
12	Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons	163	136.9	-26.1	11	>99%	13	4	10	11

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 12.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.6 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 75% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	19	25.6	+6.6	2	38%	81	93	1	2
2	Milton Academy Mustangs	22	57.3	+35.3	5	8%	95	100	5	5
3	Old Rochester Bulldogs	25	45.2	+20.2	4	33%	77	98	3	4
4	Dartmouth High School Sailing	31	23.0	-8.0	1	95%	7	38	2	1
5	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	46	45.2	-0.8	3	66%	41	56	4	3
6	St. John Paul II School Lions	55	60.9	+5.9	6	38%	67	69	8	6
7	Falmouth High School, MA Clippers	62	61.4	-0.6	7	48%	58	51	12	9
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	65	83.4	+18.4	12	21%	82	81	13	13
9	Boston College High School Eagles	69	62.9	-6.1	8	68%	37	32	14	7
9	The Winsor School Wildcats	69	68.9	-0.1	11	53%	53	48	6	8
11	Nantucket High School Whalers	75	68.5	-6.5	9	80%	26	27	7	10
12	Nauset Regional High School Nauset	92	83.9	-8.1	13	58%	48	21	9	12
13	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	101	68.8	-32.2	10	93%	11	1	10	11
14	Sandwich Middle High School Blue Knights	109	85.1	-23.9	14	>99%	13	0	11	14

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 9 teams · site model off 6.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 8.2 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 27% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yarmouth High School Clippers	20	35.0	+15.0	4	10%	95	98	6	5
2	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	22	23.4	+1.4	1	66%	45	71	2	1
3	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	33	39.4	+6.4	6	20%	85	79	5	6
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	38	41.9	+3.9	7	28%	77	64	7	7
5	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	40	36.2	-3.8	5	71%	36	24	1	4
6	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	41	33.5	-7.5	3	86%	20	16	3	3
7	East Greenwich High School Avengers	42	31.7	-10.3	2	92%	11	14	4	2
8	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	44	42.1	-1.9	8	84%	25	39	9	8
9	Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	54	49.8	-4.2	9	>99%	20	24	8	9

2026 NESSA O’Day Qualifier - Sharon ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 7.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.0 · winner's chance 65% · this far off in 94% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	32	23.8	-8.2	1	65%	68	31	1	1
2	Belmont Hill School Varsity	34	37.0	+3.0	3	43%	70	71	2	3
3	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	35	33.2	-1.8	2	83%	31	62	3	2
4	St. Johns Prep Eagles	51	52.3	+1.3	4	50%	63	62	4	5
5	Hingham High School Harbormen	54	78.1	+24.1	6	17%	88	93	9	6
5	Sharon High School Eagles	54	54.4	+0.4	5	68%	45	61	5	4
7	Moses Brown School Quakers	65	80.2	+15.2	7	40%	66	79	10	9
8	Pingree School Pegasus	83	86.6	+3.6	10	39%	67	52	7	8
8	Winchester High School Varsity	83	83.9	+0.9	9	43%	64	47	8	10
10	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	97	92.0	-5.0	12	49%	57	31	11	11
10	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	97	94.8	-2.2	13	44%	61	34	13	13
12	Duxbury High School Dragons	99	87.0	-12.0	11	89%	17	13	12	12
13	Wellesley High School Varsity	100	80.6	-19.4	8	>99%	2	4	6	7

2026 PCISA Fleet Racing Championship ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 26.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.3 · winner's chance 49% · this far off in 74% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	93	116.9	+23.9	2	36%	82	92	2	2
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	93	111.1	+18.1	1	49%	76	92	1	1
3	San Marcos High School Royals	133	154.3	+21.3	3	44%	68	87	6	3
4	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	143	157.5	+14.5	4	60%	51	81	5	5
5	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	210	157.5	-52.5	5	85%	25	7	4	4
6	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	212	219.2	+7.2	6	43%	66	61	7	7
7	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	230	235.8	+5.8	8	48%	61	58	8	8
8	Alameda High School Hornets	271	297.3	+26.3	11	12%	92	76	9	11
9	Redwood Giants	276	233.4	-42.6	7	84%	23	12	3	6
10	Dos Pueblos Chargers	305	261.6	-43.4	9	74%	33	13	16	10
11	Parker	313	304.5	-8.5	12	50%	58	38	11	12
12	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	319	272.6	-46.4	10	89%	16	8	10	9
13	Design Tech High School Dragons	324	375.7	+51.7	17	12%	91	91	18	17
14	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	332	363.1	+31.1	15	38%	68	70	13	15
15	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	338	338.5	+0.5	13	79%	27	39	12	13
16	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	348	384.0	+36.0	18	48%	60	73	14	18
17	SF University High School Red Devils	371	348.2	-22.8	14	95%	10	13	15	14
18	Coronado Islanders Islanders	391	367.7	-23.3	16	>99%	8	14	17	16

MISSA Mallory Qualifier 2026 ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 33.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 65.7 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 88% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	137	154.7	+17.7	2	32%	84	89	1	1
2	Minnetonka High School Skippers	149	232.8	+83.8	5	7%	95	99	9	5
3	Jones College Prep Eagles	160	152.1	-7.9	1	87%	24	64	2	2
4	New Trier HS Trevian	173	179.1	+6.1	3	83%	29	74	7	3
5	Lake Forest High School Scouts	196	183.5	-12.5	4	81%	25	55	6	4
6	Blake School Bears	199	292.4	+93.4	8	33%	74	98	4	8
7	Madison West Varsity	216	277.6	+61.6	6	58%	50	91	3	7
8	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	304	308.3	+4.3	9	52%	57	55	8	9
9	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	314	290.8	-23.2	7	79%	27	31	5	6
10	Wayzata High School Navy	352	319.9	-32.1	10	74%	34	19	13	10
11	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	379	358.1	-20.9	11	56%	52	28	14	11
12	Loyola Academy Ramblers	405	409.3	+4.3	13	33%	73	43	11	14
13	Benilde St Margarets Red	411	429.0	+18.0	16	28%	78	56	16	16
14	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	426	393.5	-32.5	12	74%	34	14	12	12
15	Latin School of Chicago Romans	427	412.3	-14.7	14	72%	36	30	10	13
16	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	489	496.7	+7.7	18	20%	86	36	18	18
17	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	522	426.4	-95.6	15	93%	14	1	15	15
17	Whitney Young Dolphins	522	461.5	-60.5	17	75%	36	5	17	17

SAISA Girls Champs ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 6 teams · site model off 3.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 9.3 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	MAST Academy Makos	13	15.3	+2.3	1	90%	55	93	1	1
2	Coral Gables Senior High Cavaliers	25	26.7	+1.7	2	64%	64	70	3	2
3	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 1	28	31.1	+3.1	3	85%	40	75	2	3
4	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 2	50	51.5	+1.5	4	56%	64	49	4	4
5	Ashley Hall Panthers	57	55.6	-1.4	5	72%	48	38	6	5
6	St. Vincent's Academy Saints Varsity	70	59.7	-10.3	6	>99%	23	0	5	6

2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 29.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 45.0 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 82% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	80	158.5	+78.5	2	9%	96	100	3	2
2	Brunswick School Bruins	98	184.8	+86.8	6	15%	89	99	4	6
3	St. George's School Dragons	110	117.0	+7.0	1	86%	19	81	1	1
4	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	160	187.1	+27.1	7	24%	81	86	9	4
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	162	164.2	+2.2	3	61%	45	61	7	3
6	Tabor Academy Seawolves	185	208.1	+23.1	9	32%	73	75	11	10
7	Greenwich Academy Gators	186	176.8	-9.2	5	66%	38	49	2	5
8	Dartmouth High School Sailing	214	193.4	-20.6	8	61%	44	36	5	9
9	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	228	224.9	-3.1	11	50%	54	47	10	11
10	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	238.7	165.3	-73.4	4	91%	11	7	6	7
11	Milton Academy Mustangs	255	264.3	+9.3	12	40%	65	53	12	12
12	Yarmouth High School Clippers	267	295.1	+28.1	16	23%	81	68	17	16
13	Old Rochester Bulldogs	286	290.6	+4.6	13	38%	68	46	15	15
14	Belmont Hill School Varsity	296	210.8	-85.2	10	96%	6	2	8	8
15	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	298	292.5	-5.5	15	61%	44	34	14	13
16	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	322	307.6	-14.4	17	62%	45	24	18	18
17	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	324	317.6	-6.4	18	75%	34	24	13	17
18	Sharon High School Eagles	337	291.3	-45.7	14	>99%	4	2	16	14

2026 NWISA Fleet Race Championships ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 17.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 29.5 · winner's chance 65% · this far off in 89% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Bainbridge High School Spartans	68	73.9	+5.9	1	65%	67	83	1	1
2	Olympia High School Bears	69	88.7	+19.7	2	66%	55	95	4	2
3	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	95	115.3	+20.3	3	44%	67	86	3	3
4	Gig Harbor High School Tides	99	138.5	+39.5	5	28%	80	98	7	5
5	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	124	122.2	-1.8	4	76%	32	54	2	4
6	Lakeside School Lions	147	141.3	-5.7	6	58%	48	46	5	6
7	Capital High School Cougars	177	166.5	-10.5	8	43%	64	36	9	8
8	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	185	209.3	+24.3	12	16%	87	69	11	12
9	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	188	149.5	-38.5	7	89%	16	7	6	7
10	Sehome High School Mariners	197	195.5	-1.5	10	53%	57	40	13	10
11	Anacortes High School Seahawks	206	189.2	-16.8	9	76%	32	19	8	9
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	212	219.3	+7.3	13	54%	55	50	12	13
13	Orcas High School Vikings	228	196.0	-32.0	11	92%	15	10	10	11
14	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	260	234.8	-25.2	14	>99%	22	6	14	14

MASSA 2026 Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 21.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.9 · winner's chance 50% · this far off in 71% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	68	78.6	+10.6	1	50%	75	88	1	1
2	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	91	95.2	+4.2	3	44%	70	72	2	3
3	Southern Regional High School Rams	99	113.8	+14.8	4	33%	76	85	4	4
4	Christchurch School Seahorses One	100	88.7	-11.3	2	90%	17	45	3	2
5	Key School Zags	121	174.8	+53.8	8	12%	91	96	9	8
6	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One	122	140.0	+18.0	6	67%	47	84	5	6
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	135	124.5	-10.5	5	92%	13	46	7	5
8	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	174	211.6	+37.6	10	15%	89	91	12	10
9	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	194	230.7	+36.7	12	18%	86	82	14	15
10	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	198	164.7	-33.3	7	94%	9	10	8	7
11	Canisius High School Crusaders	236	202.0	-34.0	9	71%	35	9	6	9
12	Severna Park Falcons	239	216.1	-22.9	11	64%	42	22	13	11
13	Leonardtown High School Raiders	243	231.7	-11.3	13	57%	49	27	10	12
14	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	249	236.5	-12.5	14	64%	44	26	16	13
15	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	260	249.7	-10.3	16	63%	45	26	15	16
16	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	271	287.1	+16.1	18	33%	74	52	17	18
17	Gunston Herons	272	237.2	-34.8	15	95%	9	7	11	14
18	Ridge High School Red Devils	277	266.2	-10.8	17	>99%	12	23	18	17

Women's Eastern National Semis ICSA · 05/15/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 18.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.2 · winner's chance 70% · this far off in 74% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	81	80.7	-0.3	1	70%	65	70	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	98	113.5	+15.5	2	36%	76	86	3	2
3	College of Charleston Cougars	117	122.5	+5.5	4	45%	64	68	2	3
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	121	115.3	-5.7	3	74%	35	53	4	4
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	137	140.4	+3.4	5	56%	53	62	7	5
6	Tufts University Jumbos	138	149.7	+11.7	6	58%	51	74	6	6
7	Boston College Eagles	157	166.9	+9.9	7	52%	56	68	14	8
8	Jacksonville University Fins	173	235.8	+62.8	16	4%	97	98	10	15
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	186	227.7	+41.7	15	12%	91	90	17	16
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	202	171.5	-30.5	8	81%	24	16	8	7
11	Fordham University Rams	205	201.0	-4.0	10	61%	45	42	13	11
12	Connecticut College Camels	210	221.3	+11.3	12	45%	61	63	16	13
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	218	207.6	-10.4	11	76%	29	32	11	12
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	220	189.7	-30.3	9	94%	8	14	5	9
15	Columbia University Lions	243	227.6	-15.4	14	80%	26	22	12	14
16	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	277	226.7	-50.3	13	94%	13	2	9	10
17	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	289	281.0	-8.0	17	73%	49	26	15	17
18	University of Vermont Catamounts	312	304.8	-7.2	18	>99%	32	23	18	18

Women's Western National Semis ICSA · 05/15/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 23.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.5 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 61% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	106	132.0	+26.0	3	7%	97	91	10	4
2	Yale University Bulldogs	107	97.7	-9.3	1	75%	39	48	3	1
3	Cornell University Big Red	109	140.0	+31.0	5	29%	78	94	8	5
4	Brown University Bears	116	107.8	-8.2	2	87%	18	51	2	2
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	145	164.9	+19.9	6	33%	74	80	11	6
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	155	190.8	+35.8	9	20%	84	88	13	10
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	156	172.5	+16.5	7	52%	54	71	1	7
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	162	215.9	+53.9	13	14%	89	97	14	15
9	Tulane University Green Wave	183	132.6	-50.4	4	92%	10	11	4	3
10	Northeastern University Huskies	186	187.6	+1.6	8	65%	41	52	12	8
11	University of Hawaii Rainbows	189	209.7	+20.7	12	48%	57	74	5	9
12	University of South Florida Bulls	206	201.7	-4.3	10	66%	39	41	7	12
13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	217	224.8	+7.8	15	50%	56	54	15	16
14	Rollins College Tars	220	216.0	-4.0	14	73%	33	40	6	13
15	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	241	204.4	-36.6	11	92%	13	8	16	14
16	Boston University Terriers	298	290.1	-7.9	18	16%	88	22	18	18
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	299	288.7	-10.3	17	54%	64	19	17	17
18	Western Washington University Vikings	307	224.9	-82.1	16	>99%	1	0	9	11

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy GREEN) ISSA · 05/16/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 12.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 25.2 · winner's chance 43% · this far off in 93% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	33	39.6	+6.6	1	43%	78	84	1	1
2	Old Rochester Bulldogs	44	47.5	+3.5	2	49%	64	77	4	2
3	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	46	47.6	+1.6	3	68%	42	71	3	3
3	St. George's School Dragons	46	71.0	+25.0	5	21%	84	96	2	5
5	Hingham High School Harborwomen	53	57.2	+4.2	4	81%	26	71	6	4
6	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	54	85.8	+31.8	6	42%	66	97	8	6
7	Wilton High School Warriors	88	90.9	+2.9	7	49%	58	53	9	8
8	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	94	97.6	+3.6	8	47%	61	53	5	7
9	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	109	112.4	+3.4	12	29%	76	48	10	11
10	Greenwich High School Cardinals	117	110.9	-6.1	11	49%	58	26	13	13
11	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	127	104.2	-22.8	10	76%	31	3	11	9
12	Staples High School Wreckers	134	101.0	-33.0	9	89%	17	2	7	10
13	Lincoln School Lynxes	137	113.3	-23.7	13	>99%	12	5	12	12

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy RED) ISSA · 05/16/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 14.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.5 · winner's chance 86% · this far off in 67% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Greenwich Academy Gators	19	27.3	+8.3	1	86%	57	96	1	1
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	35	49.9	+14.9	2	50%	71	97	3	2
3	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	53	60.7	+7.7	3	46%	65	79	6	3
4	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	62	81.3	+19.3	6	18%	87	93	4	5
5	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	76	100.1	+24.1	11	10%	92	89	11	11
6	The Winsor School Wildcats	78	75.1	-2.9	5	60%	46	46	2	4
7	North Kingstown High School Skippers	84	89.9	+5.9	7	42%	64	61	7	7
8	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	90	94.1	+4.1	10	47%	59	54	12	12
9	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	98	91.2	-6.8	8	63%	44	31	10	9
9	Branford High School Hornets	98	91.7	-6.3	9	63%	43	32	9	8
11	Portland High School Bulldogs	106	68.5	-37.5	4	98%	3	3	5	6
12	Beverly High School Panthers	138	106.1	-31.9	12	>99%	15	1	8	10

Women's Fleet Race National Championhips ICSA · 05/17/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 27.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 32.3 · winner's chance 77% · this far off in 45% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	94	111.3	+17.3	1	77%	62	88	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	128	163.7	+35.7	2	30%	82	94	4	2
3	Harvard University Crimson	161	180.2	+19.2	4	28%	78	79	6	4
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	164	215.5	+51.5	9	11%	91	95	12	9
5	College of Charleston Cougars	171	189.4	+18.4	6	43%	62	75	2	5
5	Cornell University Big Red	171	190.4	+19.4	7	40%	65	78	8	7
7	Tulane University Green Wave	208	220.3	+12.3	10	31%	73	65	9	10
8	Brown University Bears	214	173.3	-40.7	3	87%	17	12	5	3
9	Georgetown University Hoyas	226	185.3	-40.7	5	82%	23	13	3	6
10	Roger Williams University Hawks	231	220.3	-10.7	11	59%	46	38	11	11
11	Tufts University Jumbos	236	234.0	-2.0	12	57%	50	45	10	12
12	Dartmouth College Big Green	247	191.3	-55.7	8	95%	8	6	7	8
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	247	314.2	+67.2	16	4%	97	96	16	16
14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	258	267.8	+9.8	14	68%	42	57	14	14
15	Boston College Eagles	276	245.3	-30.7	13	96%	8	13	15	13
16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	316	289.2	-26.8	15	87%	23	13	17	15
17	Jacksonville University Fins	350.1	340.7	-9.4	18	56%	60	23	13	17
18	University of Rhode Island Rams	368	335.7	-32.3	17	>99%	18	5	18	18

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy GOLD) ISSA · 05/17/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 11.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.1 · winner's chance 65% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Greenwich Academy Gators	46	48.8	+2.8	1	65%	67	75	1	1
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	50	71.8	+21.8	2	42%	70	93	2	2
3	Tabor Academy Seawolves	73	83.1	+10.1	3	43%	66	75	5	3
4	Old Rochester Bulldogs	80	85.8	+5.8	5	55%	54	72	7	4
5	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	100	105.4	+5.4	7	33%	72	62	9	7
6	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	102	85.7	-16.3	4	79%	26	25	3	5
7	Hingham High School Harborwomen	104	100.3	-3.7	6	68%	38	47	10	6
8	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	109	127.7	+18.7	10	38%	71	84	8	9
9	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	132	133.5	+1.5	11	48%	59	41	11	11
9	St. George's School Dragons	132	127.3	-4.7	9	57%	50	33	6	10
11	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	159	153.3	-5.7	12	49%	62	22	12	12
12	The Winsor School Wildcats	166	125.3	-40.7	8	>99%	4	0	4	8

NESSA Girls Championship(Herreshoff Trophy SILVER) ISSA · 05/17/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 13.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.2 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 46% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	28	51.0	+23.0	5	9%	96	96	11	8
1	Wilton High School Warriors	28	48.4	+20.4	4	10%	95	96	9	6
3	North Kingstown High School Skippers	32	48.2	+16.2	3	33%	73	91	5	4
4	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	37	54.3	+17.3	7	26%	78	93	4	3
5	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	48	55.1	+7.1	8	32%	73	72	12	12
6	Portland High School Bulldogs	50	33.3	-16.7	1	86%	17	18	2	1
7	Branford High School Hornets	55	51.7	-3.3	6	60%	45	43	6	7
8	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	62	44.2	-17.8	2	85%	19	10	3	2
9	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	68	63.9	-4.1	12	53%	52	28	1	5
9	Staples High School Wreckers	68	55.4	-12.6	9	67%	38	19	8	10
11	Greenwich High School Cardinals	73	57.0	-16.0	10	89%	16	6	10	11
11	Lincoln School Lynxes	73	78.1	+5.1	13	37%	69	54	13	13
13	Beverly High School Panthers	80	61.4	-18.6	11	>99%	7	10	7	9

Open Eastern National Semis ICSA · 05/19/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 14.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.0 · winner's chance 43% · this far off in 81% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	52	71.8	+19.8	1	43%	78	94	1	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	76	93.7	+17.7	4	24%	83	87	3	4
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	89	84.4	-4.6	2	58%	50	47	2	3
4	Tulane University Green Wave	90	85.2	-4.8	3	66%	40	50	4	2
5	Cornell University Big Red	95	124.3	+29.3	8	21%	83	90	8	9
6	Boston College Eagles	102	106.4	+4.4	6	53%	53	63	7	6
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	110	103.3	-6.7	5	68%	37	43	5	5
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	112	114.0	+2.0	7	61%	44	55	12	8
9	Connecticut College Camels	125	150.1	+25.1	14	17%	85	84	18	14
10	Northeastern University Huskies	131	161.8	+30.8	16	12%	90	89	17	16
11	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	134.4	128.7	-5.7	11	70%	36	37	6	7
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	138	148.4	+10.4	13	48%	58	64	15	13
13	University of Miami Hurricanes	148	141.6	-6.4	12	68%	37	36	9	12
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	150	127.4	-22.6	10	91%	12	16	11	10
15	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	162	125.4	-36.6	9	97%	6	6	13	11
16	Eckerd College Tritons	163	153.4	-9.6	15	91%	17	31	14	15
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	191	191.4	+0.4	17	77%	44	40	16	17
18	Texas A&M University Aggies	243	210.9	-32.1	18	>99%	34	0	10	18

Open Western National Semis ICSA · 05/19/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 15.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.5 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 85% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	40	69.5	+29.5	1	41%	79	99	4	2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	73	72.7	-0.3	2	65%	48	60	1	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	75	103.1	+28.1	4	25%	81	94	3	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	89	105.4	+16.4	6	36%	71	83	5	7
5	College of Charleston Cougars	92	93.8	+1.8	3	70%	36	62	8	3
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	116	141.9	+25.9	10	12%	90	86	17	13
7	Tufts University Jumbos	119	121.0	+2.0	8	44%	61	56	11	9
8	Fordham University Rams	124	145.4	+21.4	12	19%	85	84	13	12
9	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	131	104.3	-26.7	5	85%	18	14	10	6
10	Jacksonville University Fins	134	125.8	-8.2	9	68%	36	36	6	8
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	136	142.2	+6.2	11	53%	53	58	9	11
12	San Diego State University Aztecs	149	117.0	-32.0	7	91%	12	9	2	5
13	Boston University Terriers	150	154.9	+4.9	14	50%	55	54	16	14
14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	165	156.8	-8.2	15	59%	47	32	15	15
15	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	169	166.5	-2.5	16	60%	47	37	12	16
16	Florida State University Seminoles	174	168.9	-5.1	17	69%	39	34	14	17
17	University of Southern California Trojans	194	150.7	-43.3	13	97%	6	1	7	10
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	210	200.0	-10.0	18	>99%	31	18	18	18

Open Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/21/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 27.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.2 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 34% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	163	176.7	+13.7	1	32%	84	77	4	2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	174	185.9	+11.9	3	43%	67	76	1	3
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	211	247.5	+36.5	9	12%	91	83	3	6
3	Harvard University Crimson	211	183.5	-27.5	2	64%	44	29	2	1
3	Yale University Bulldogs	211	263.7	+52.7	11	5%	96	92	6	11
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	223	241.5	+18.5	7	39%	67	73	8	7
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	225	247.4	+22.4	8	43%	61	73	5	9
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	225	261.9	+36.9	10	30%	75	85	13	10
9	Tulane University Green Wave	242	218.8	-23.2	4	84%	19	31	9	5
10	College of Charleston Cougars	243	222.8	-20.2	5	88%	15	34	12	4
11	Roger Williams University Hawks	253	235.4	-17.6	6	86%	17	35	11	8
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	302	284.9	-17.1	13	59%	47	30	15	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	318	366.6	+48.6	18	7%	95	86	18	18
14	Boston College Eagles	321	275.4	-45.6	12	91%	14	6	10	12
15	Jacksonville University Fins	337	305.8	-31.2	14	79%	28	15	7	14
16	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	343	346.0	+3.0	16	63%	47	41	17	16
17	Cornell University Big Red	370	331.6	-38.4	15	89%	19	9	14	15
18	Fordham University Rams	380	356.7	-23.3	17	>99%	13	13	16	17

2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship ISSA · 05/30/2026 · 20 teams · site model off 47.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 60.8 · winner's chance 22% · this far off in 51% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	167	213.5	+46.5	2	22%	89	94	1	2
2	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	192	261.0	+69.0	6	13%	91	97	5	5
3	St. George's School Dragons	196	251.3	+55.3	4	28%	78	96	8	6
4	Point Loma High School Pointers	200	188.6	-11.4	1	89%	15	57	2	1
5	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	203	237.9	+34.9	3	61%	45	89	6	4
6	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	229	317.8	+88.8	11	16%	87	98	11	13
7	Barrington High School Eagles	304	283.5	-20.5	7	47%	58	39	7	8
8	Christchurch School Seahorses One	313	258.9	-54.1	5	78%	27	14	3	3
9	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	318	320.4	+2.4	12	44%	60	51	12	12
10	Southern Regional High School Rams	321	299.2	-21.8	9	67%	38	35	4	7
11	Key School Zags	335	413.5	+78.5	15	12%	90	89	14	15
12	Brunswick School Bruins	360	302.1	-57.9	10	76%	29	21	10	11
13	San Marcos High School Royals	365	287.0	-78.0	8	96%	7	5	15	9
14	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	402	339.8	-62.2	13	87%	18	7	9	10
15	Bainbridge High School Spartans	429	405.0	-24.0	14	58%	50	22	13	14
16	Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays	429.7	522.4	+92.7	20	9%	93	90	16	20
17	New Trier HS Trevian	450	428.3	-21.7	17	76%	33	18	19	16
18	Minnetonka High School Skippers	459	465.0	+6.0	19	62%	49	40	20	18
19	Jones College Prep Eagles	460	424.1	-35.9	16	97%	8	14	17	17
20	Olympia High School Bears	539	460.9	-78.1	18	>99%	6	0	18	19

Caveats

• Actual totals are recomputed from recorded finishes and can differ slightly from official scores where a regatta used scoring penalties, averaged redress or tiebreakers.
• Only skippers are rated. A boat whose skipper has no earlier races gets the newcomer rating and the league penalty rate.
• Combined-division regattas are scored as a single fleet per race.